2007/2008年冬季平流层环流异常及平流层—对流层耦合特征

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了2007/2008年冬季平流层环流振荡的过程和异常特征,以及平流层—对流层的环流耦合特征。结果发现：2007/2008年冬季平流层极涡持续偏强,且极涡从12月下旬开始向东亚—大西洋地区偏心发展,同时在欧洲—地中海地区减弱向极区收缩,从而在欧亚地区的平流层高层最早形成“一脊一槽”1波型的环流形势;该平流层的环流异常信号逐步向低层传播;从平流层10 hPa向下传播到对流层中、低层需要约15~20天的时间;此时对流层500 hPa上,与平流层向下传播的信号相对应,呈现为高纬度“西高东低”和副热带“东高西低”的环流异常型,即分别对应着乌拉尔山阻塞高压、鄂霍茨克海低槽以及副热带高压异常偏强和副热带欧亚大陆中西部低槽活动频繁。这种环流异常配置即形成了有利于我国南方降雪持续的大尺度背景条件。进一步研究还发现,平流层异常信号存在由热带向极传播的趋势。2008年1月的平流层极涡振荡正异常所对应的环流异常信号可以追溯到2007年秋季10月份最早出现在热带地区的环流异常信号,该异常信号在向极传播过程中同时向东移动,2008年1月传播到极区,对应极涡振荡的正异常。说明前期平流层的异常信号及其演变,对2008年1月的气候异常具有重要指示意义。     

1998年中国区域降水低频变化的传播机制的初步分析

使用美国NCEP/NCAR再分析和中国实际降水的逐日资料,研究了1998年夏季中国区域低频降水传播变化的机制.结果显示,(1)中国中东部地区低频降水经向传播都与南海季风和印度季风的变化相对应,低频降水在经向传播中存在不连续现象,是由于低频下沉气流造成的;(2)中国中部区域低频降水纬向传播特征是在不同时间低频降水的纬向传播方向有明显差别,初步认为造成这种现象的可能机制是纬向风气流的变化;(3)高原地区与平原地区之间的低频雨带活动具有不连续性,这是由于在高原东坡存在低频下沉补偿气流造成的.     

新疆西部苏盖特构造带构造特征及勘探前景

苏盖特构造带位于新疆昆仑山弧形推覆体前缘.本文通过研究苏盖特构造带的构造特征,确定了地震反射层的地质属性,认为苏盖特构造带由表层推覆体及下部下第三系-二叠系之间的地层经过3次重复形成的叠瓦状推覆体构成.苏盖特构造带活动始于上新世阿图什组沉积期,定型于更新世.通过研究西昆仑逆冲推覆体及已钻探井的地表油源、储层特征及储盖组合,认为苏盖特构造带具有两套好的油源即石炭-二叠系及侏罗系油源,两套好的储集层即白垩系和下第三系储层,相应地,发育两套储盖组合,具有良好的圈闭及运聚条件,是有利的勘探目标区.     

LDPC码及其研究进展

对低密度奇偶校验码(LDPC)的结构、编译码原理进行了介绍，并与turbo码进行了简单的比较，最后对目前LDPC码的几个研究方向及其进展作了较详细的论述，指出LDPC码具有很大的发展前景。     

Accelerating the discontinuous Galerkin method for seismic wave propagation simulations using multiple GPUs with CUDA and MPI

We have successfully ported an arbitrary high-order discontinuous Galerkin method for solving the three-dimensional isotropic elastic wave equation on unstructured tetrahedral meshes to multiple Graphic Processing Units (GPUs) using the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) of NVIDIA and Message Passing Interface (MPI) and obtained a speedup factor of about 28.3 for the single-precision version of our codes and a speedup factor of about 14.9 for the double-precision version. The GPU used in the comparisons is NVIDIA Tesla C2070 Fermi, and the CPU used is Intel Xeon W5660. To effectively overlap inter-process communication with computation, we separate the elements on each subdomain into inner and outer elements and complete the computation on outer elements and fill the MPI buffer first. While the MPI messages travel across the network, the GPU performs computation on inner elements, and all other calculations that do not use information of outer elements from neighboring subdomains. A significant portion of the speedup also comes from a customized matrix–matrix multiplication kernel, which is used extensively throughout our program. Preliminary performance analysis on our parallel GPU codes shows favorable strong and weak scalabilities.     

砂砾岩水力压裂裂缝扩展规律的数值模拟分析

砂砾岩储层一般具有岩性和渗透性变化大、孔隙度低、连通性差、孔隙结构复杂和非均匀性严重等特点,因此,在水力压裂过程中,裂缝扩展形态难以控制,大规模改造难度大。针对国内某典型砂砾岩油藏特征,采用数值计算方法对砂砾岩压裂裂缝的扩展规律进行了研究,包括地应力场、砾石含量和粒径等对裂缝扩展形态及压裂压力的影响。研究表明,砾石的存在增加了压裂裂纹扩展的复杂性,裂纹主要有止裂、偏转、穿透和吸附4种表现模式,但主应力差严格控制着裂纹的走向,随着主应力差的增大,裂纹由总体绕砾扩展转变为总体穿砾扩展,失稳压力随着主应力差的增大而明显减小;砾石含量的多少体现了砂砾岩试样宏观的非均匀性,含量越高均匀性越差,随着砾石含量的提高,裂纹与砾石的相互作用占据主导地位,失稳压力随砾石含量的增加而增大;当砾石体积含量一定时,砾石粒径对压裂压力的影响主要取决于砾石排列的随机性,失稳压力随砾石粒径的增大而略有增大。     

Progressive failure of sheeted rock slopes: the 2009–2010 Rhombus Wall rock falls in Yosemite Valley,California, USA

Progressive rock‐fall failures in natural rock slopes are common in many environments, but often elude detailed quantitative documentation and analysis. Here we present high‐resolution photography, video, and laser scanning data that document spatial and temporal patterns of a 15‐month‐long sequence of at least 14 rock falls from the Rhombus Wall, a sheeted granitic cliff in Yosemite Valley, California. The rock‐fall sequence began on 26 August 2009 with a small failure at the tip of an overhanging rock slab. Several hours later, a series of five rock falls totaling 736 m³ progressed upward along a sheeting joint behind the overhanging slab. Over the next 3 weeks, audible cracking occurred on the Rhombus Wall, suggesting crack propagation, while visual monitoring revealed opening of a sheeting joint adjacent to the previous failure surface. On 14 September 2009 a 110 m³ slab detached along this sheeting joint. Additional rock falls between 30 August and 20 November 2010, totaling 187 m³, radiated outward from the initial failure area along cliff (sub)parallel sheeting joints. We suggest that these progressive failures might have been related to stress redistributions accompanying propagation of sheeting joints behind the cliff face. Mechanical analyses indicate that tensile stresses should occur perpendicular to the cliff face and open sheeting joints, and that sheeting joints should propagate parallel to a cliff face from areas of stress concentrations. The analyses also account for how sheeting joints can propagate to lengths many times greater than their depths behind cliff faces. We posit that as a region of failure spreads across a cliff face, stress concentrations along its margin will spread with it, promoting further crack propagation and rock falls. Published in 2012. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

唐山老震区地震活动特征

整理校正唐山长时间地震序列数据,用基于时空ETAS模型的随机除丛法,分析1976年唐山长时间地震序列的活动特点,发现唐山老震区1992年后进入余震活动的晚期阶段,目前地震活动未完全恢复到背景地震的水平。用频度和应变能两种不同的异常指标分析唐山老震区作为“余震窗口”对中强震的指示意义,发现唐山余震窗口的早期阶段（1980-1986年）,频次作异常指标映震效果较好,晚期阶段（1992-2010年）,应变能作为异常指标映震效果更好。     

大型地下洞室群地震水平加速度传播特征研究

考虑了高山峡谷基岩场地的深度衰减效应,假设地震危险性分析提供的水平峰值加速度的所在位置,选用攀枝花—会理地震波,通过基线校正和高频滤波作为实际地震动输入,利用FLAC3D软件对某水电站大型地下洞室群进行了地震水平加速度传播特性的研究。数值分析结果表明,厂房周围监测点水平加速度时程和输入地震水平加速度时程相似,但存在0.08～0.12s的滞后时差,输入地震动水平峰值加速度向上传播时具有放大效应,在洞室群附近放大两倍左右。所得结果对大型地下洞室群地震动传播特征问题研究具有一定的参考意义。     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of aftershocks and seismogenic structure of the 2011 MW9.0 Tohoku earthquake,Japan

The Tohoku megathrust earthquake, which occurred on March 11, 2011 and had an epicenter that was 70 km east of Tohoku, Japan, resulted in an estimated ten's of billions of dollars in damage and a death toll of more than 15 thousand lives, yet few studies have documented key spatio-temporal seismogenic characteristics. Specifically, the temporal decay of aftershock activity, the number of strong aftershocks (with magnitudes greater than or equal to 7.0), the magnitude of the greatest aftershock, and area of possible aftershocks. Forecasted results from this study are based on Gutenberg-Richter's relation, Bath's law, Omori's law, and Well's relation of rupture scale utilizing the magnitude and statistical parameters of earthquakes in USA and China (Landers, Northridge, Hector Mine, San Simeon and Wenchuan earthquakes). The number of strong aftershocks, the parameters of Gutenberg-Richter's relation, and the modified form of Omori's law are confirmed based on the aftershock sequence data from the M_W9.0 Tohoku earthquake. Moreover, for a large earthquake, the seismogenic structure could be a fault, a fault system, or an intersection of several faults. The seismogenic structure of the earthquake suggests that the event occurred on a thrust fault near the Japan trench within the overriding plate that subsequently triggered three or more active faults producing large aftershocks.