中国长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨的发生特征及成因

主要综述了最近关于中国长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨发生特征和成因的研究。表明:长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨的发生频率非常高,并给经济造成了严重损失,长江流域洪涝灾害发生不仅具有准两年周期的年际变化,而且具有明显的年代际变化,从1977年之后,长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨增多;并且,表明了无论是长江中、下游地区或是长江上游的川东地区持续性暴雨都是在"鞍"型大尺度环流系统的配置下发生,这是由于这种大尺度环流系统的配置不仅利于水汽输送到长江中、下游地区或上游的川东地区,而且利于在"鞍"型中心地区产生垂直对流不稳定,从而引起暴雨中尺度系统的发展。此外,还综述了长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨发生的成因的研究,这些研究表明了长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨发生的年际和年代际变化是与大气-海洋-陆面耦合的东亚季风气候系统的变异密切相关。     

Flood hazard and risk analysis in the southwest region of Bangladesh

Flood hazard and risk assessment was conducted to identify the priority areas in the southwest region of Bangladesh for flood mitigation. Simulation of flood flow through the Gorai and Arial Khan river system and its floodplains was done by using a hydrodynamic model. After model calibration and verification, the model was used to simulate the flood flow of 100‐year return period for a duration of four months. The maximum flooding depths at different locations in the rivers and floodplains were determined. The process in determining long flooding durations at every grid point in the hydrodynamic model is laborious and time‐consuming. Therefore the flood durations were determined by using satellite images of the observed flood in 1988, which has a return period close to 100 years. Flood hazard assessment was done considering flooding depth and duration. By dividing the study area into smaller land units for hazard assessment, the hazard index and the hazard factor for each land unit for depth and duration of flooding were determined. From the hazard factors of the land units, a flood hazard map, which indicates the locations of different categories of hazard zones, was developed. It was found that 54% of the study area was in the medium hazard zone, 26% in the higher hazard zone and 20% in the lower hazard zone. Due to lack of sufficient flood damage data, flood damage vulnerability is simply considered proportional to population density. The flood risk factor of each land unit was determined as the product of the flood hazard factor and the vulnerability factor. Knowing the flood risk factors for the land units, a flood risk map was developed based on the risk factors. These maps are very useful for the inhabitants and floodplain management authorities to minimize flood damage and loss of human lives. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Breach erosion of earthfill dams (BEED) model

A computer model has been developed for simulation of breach erosion of earthfill dams (BEED). The model incorporates the processes of surface erosion and slope sloughing to simulate breach enlargement. Depletion of reservoir water is approximated by a volume continuity equation while broad-crested weir hydraulics is utilized to describe flow over and through the breach. Due to the implicit form of these equations, an iterative solution is proposed with convergence achieved within only a few iterations. The BEED model is written in both FORTRAN 77 and BASIC computer languages. Testing of the model using historical data of the failures of Teton and Huaccoto dams showed that timing, shape, and magnitude of the predicted outflow hydrograph were adequately simulated by this model. The same is true for the dimensions of the terminal breach. A sensitivity analysis indicated that internal friction angle and the relation for surface erosion were the major factors affecting the model results.     

Flooding of Sinking Creek,Garretts Spring karst drainage basin,Jessamine and Woodford counties,Kentucky, USA

Tashamingo Subdivision in Sinking Creek karst valley, a tributary of the Garretts Spring drainage basin in Jessamine and Woodford counties, Kentucky, was flooded in February 1989. To determine the cause of flooding, the groundwater basin boundary was mapped, discharge data were measured to determine intake capacity of swallets, and hydrologic modeling of the basin was conducted. Swallet capacity was determined to be limited by the hydraulic parameters of the conduit, rather than by obstruction by trash. Flooding from a precipitation event is more likely, and will be higher, when antecedent soil moisture conditions in the watershed are near saturation. Hydrologic modeling shows that suburban development of 20 percent of the southeast basin will cause a small increase in flood stage at Tashamingo Subdivision.     

东亚冬季风环流异常与中国江淮流域夏季旱涝天气的关系

选取１９５１—１９９１年中的长江淮河流域夏季旱涝各１０年，对它们前期的中高纬大型环流形势，低纬环流特征，垂直环流强弱，热带海洋状况等进行了对比诊断分析，其结果如下：长江淮河流域夏季旱年前冬（１２—１—２月），欧亚中高纬呈经向型环流，东亚大槽较常年强且南伸，乌拉尔山及鄂霍次克海阻塞形势发展，寒潮活动频繁，东亚沿海中低纬冷涌活动强烈，至使该经度带上的跨赤道气流加强，而且使南海至菲律宾地区的对流活动趋于活跃。而涝年前冬则基本上为相反形势。本文的分析清晰地揭示了旱涝年前冬东亚冬季风环流存在着明显的差别，促使我们寻找冬夏季风活动的可能联系及物理机制。     

MONITORING OF 1991 EASTERN CHINA FLOODING WITH POLAR ORBITING METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITES FY-1 AND NOAA

With polar orbiting meteorological satellites FY-1 and NOAA,flooding was monitored in the areas of the HuaiheRiver basin and the Taihu Lake region during June and July 1991.All satellite images from FY-1 and NOAA for concerned areas before and during flooding were examined.Thoseof cloud-free,with small amount of cumulus or thin cirrus were selected to exam the situation.Navigation and projec-tion were carefully performed,to ensure the projected images at different time overlap accurately with each other in 1—2pixels.Channel 1 (CH1) and Channel 2 (CH2) data of FY-1 and NOAA satellites with wavelength of 0.58—0.68μm and0.725—1.1μm were used to monitor the flooding.Albedo of Channel 2 and normalized vegetation index (NDVI) wereadopted as indicators to identify water body from land.With histogram and man-machine interactive methods,analysiswas done.In cloud-free condition,the two indicators identified the same area and scope of the water body.Totally cloud-free image in a large area is quite rare.To understand flood process,it is necessary to use more fre-quent images.It was investigated to distinguish water from land in partly cloudy condition.The result showed that whenthere is small amount of cumulus or thin cirrus,satellite images are still valuable in monitoring water body.In case ofmonitoring area covered with cirrus,vegetation index is useful,and while there is small amount of cumulus on land,albedo of Channel 2 can be used.Ten images from May 16 to August 18 of 1991 were examined.The results show that in the Lixiahe area,JiangsuProvince,the area submerged in total was the largest;along main stream of the Huaihe River,the Chuhe River,andaround the Chaohu Lake,a large percentage of area submerged;while in the Taihu Lake area,less field submerged.Flood monitoring was performed for 87 counties in the region concerned.These counties were put in order accord-ing to the percentage of submerged area in total.This order showed the extent of disaster at one view point.     

注水开发过程中原油的水洗作用初探

注水开发过程中的水洗作用是一个以往被忽略,但又十分重要的问题.通过对3口井、时间间隔为20年的6个原油样品系统的地球化学测试与对比研究,探讨了注水开发过程中水洗作用对原油的改造作用以及各种地球化学参数的变化特征和规律.结果表明,在注水开发过程中,水洗作用对芳烃的影响远大于饱和烃,主要表现在芳烃组分的含量明显降低,一些芳烃类化合物的含量和芳烃参数也发生了显著的变化.认为这些变化是注水开发过程中原油遭受水洗作用的特征性标志,并对油源对比和油气运移等研究具有参考意义.     

热带环流异常对1998年长江流域特大洪涝的影响

分析了造成1998年长江流域特大洪涝灾害的大尺度热带环流成因。指出1998年处在热带环流强度偏弱的气候阶段，西太平洋暖池地区对流活动偏弱，南海热带季风持续异常偏弱，副热带夏季风偏强度是造成长江持续强降水的主要原因；西太平洋热带对流层高低层环流系统的异常分布，为1998年长江特大洪涝提供了有利的环流背景，还探讨了热带环流异常影响换国夏季降水的可能途径，它们的关系在1998年夏季降水预测中得到应用。     

祁连-海原地震带中强地震序列类型分布及其应用

研究了1970年以来发生于祁连—海原地震带的18次中强地震序列特征，在此基础上确定了地震序列类型，研究了各种类型地震序列的分布规律．结果表明，该带的18次中强地震序列中有44%为主震型，56%为孤立型．西海固地区的中强地震序列一般为孤立型；101°～103.5°E范围内的祁连山中东段的中强地震序列一般为主震型；99°～101°E范围内的祁连山中段为孤立型和主震型序列并存；99°E以西的祁连山西段的中强地震序列为孤立型．将上述结果应用于2000年6月6日景泰MS5.9地震的震后趋势快速判定，判定结果与实际地震活动情况符合．     

Impacts of afforestation on groundwater resources and quality

Plans to double the proportion of land under forest cover in Ireland by the year 2035 have been initiated. The plan, primarily financially driven, ignores potential environmental impacts of forestry, particularly impacts on groundwater resources and quality. Since groundwater supplies almost 25% of Ireland's total potable water, these impacts are important. Field investigations indicate that afforestation leads to a reduction in runoff by as much as 20%, mainly due to interception of rainfall by forest canopies. Clearfelling has the opposite impact. Implications are that uncoordinated forestry practices can potentially exacerbate flooding. Groundwater recharge is affected by forestry, largely due to greater uptake of soil water by trees and to increased water-holding capacity of forest soils, arising from higher organic contents. Recharge rates under forests can be reduced to one tenth that under grass or heathland. Groundwater quality may be affected by enhanced acidification and nitrification under forests, due partly to scavenging of atmospheric pollutants by forest canopies, and partly to greater deposition of highly acid leaf litter. The slower recharge rates of groundwater under forests lead to significant delays in manifestation of deterioration in groundwater quality. Electronic Publication