Oil and gas development exposure and conservation scenarios for Greater sage-grouse: Combining spatially explicit modeling with GIS visualization provides critical information for management decisions

During the last quarter-century, global demand for energy has increased by more than 60%, and a similar increase is anticipated to occur by 2030 (Raymond, Deming, & Nichols, 2007). In the U.S., oil and gas development is projected to continue across western states within sage-grouse habitat. Greater sage-grouse, recently a candidate species for protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), have well documented negative responses to oil and gas disturbance. In this study, we create spatially-explicit oil and gas future development scenarios, baseline and high, and link them to sage-grouse population and habitat maps to quantify future exposure risk within Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA) sage-grouse management zones (MZ) I and II. We then analyze recent land use decisions from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) along with enacted policy from the State of Wyoming to estimate how these management actions might minimize the exposure risk of sage-grouse to oil and gas development into the future. Our results show that BLM and Wyoming conservation plans could reduce the exposure of sage-grouse to oil and gas development from 15-27% to 11–17% (31–37% reduction) in MZ I and from 15-27% to 5–9% (64–68% reduction) in MZ II. Our estimates of exposure to future oil and gas development, and conservation measures designed to ameliorate those threats, represent the upper and lower extents of potential impacts within scenarios. Our work demonstrates how spatial modeling and GIS visualization can be used by managers to assess likely outcomes of conservation decisions.     

A LIMITED-LENGTH-SCALE k-ε MODEL FOR THE NEUTRAL AND STABLY-STRATIFIED ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER

Analytical and numerical models of the neutral and stably-stratifiedatmospheric boundary layer are reviewed. Theoretical arguments andcomputational models suggest that a quasi-steady state is attainable in aboundary layer cooled from below and it is shown how this may be incorporatedwithin a time-steady, one-dimensional model. A new length-scale-limitedk- model is proposed for flows where a global maximum mixing length isimposed by the finite boundary-layer depth or, in stably-stratifiedconditions, by the Obukhov length, whilst still reducing to a form consistentwith the logarithmic law in the surface layer. Simulations compare favourablywith data from the Leipzig experiment and from Cardington airfield inEngland.     

油气无机成因学说的新进展

介绍了油气无机成因学说的新发展,主要是目前在西方、俄罗斯等影响较大的关于无机生油气的几个学派以及在中国的一些学派。其中之一是Ｇｏｌｄ氏的地幔脱气理论,之二是费－托地质合成理论。     

珠江口盆地恩平凹陷文昌组浊积体含油气性分析

岩性油气藏是目前油气勘探开发的重要方向和热点研究领域。珠江口盆地恩平凹陷古近系文昌组发育一厚300余米、面积约140 km2的浊积砂体,其上下岩性均为深湖—半深湖相暗色细粒沉积物。文昌组是该盆地最主要的烃源岩,具有形成岩性油气藏的物质条件。以地震资料为主,结合地质和测井等综合技术,对该浊积体的含油气性进行了综合分析。研究表明,浊积体具有低频振幅能量增强、高频振幅能量降低的特点;同时AVO异常,在浊积体下部表现出同相轴下拉现象。EP17 3 1井钻遇该浊积体边缘,在浊积砂体深度（4 552～4 642 m）出现异常高压。这些特点都是含油气的表现。因此,该浊积砂体是有利的勘探目标,也是该区获得油气勘探开发重大突破的希望所在。     

断裂静止期有无输导油气能力的判别方法

通过断裂内部结构及输导通道特征研究,得到断裂静止期输导油气通道主要是碎裂岩的连通孔隙,其是否具有输导油气能力主要取决于碎裂岩颗粒粒度、泥质含量和断裂倾角大小。在此基础上,利用物理模拟实验模拟了油气在浮力作用下沿断裂碎裂岩运移速度与碎裂岩颗粒粒度、泥质含量和断裂倾角之间的关系。利用此关系建立了一套断裂静止期有无输导油气能力的判别方法,即运移速度大于零,断裂具输导油气能力,反之则无。并将其应用于海拉尔盆地苏仁诺尔断裂静止期在各组地层中有无输导油气能力的判别中,其结果与地下油气分布情况相符,表明该方法定量判别断裂静止期有无输导油气能力是可行的。     

东营凹陷民丰地区天然气生成机理与化学动力学研究

民丰地区天然气存在源岩热解和原油裂解成因的争议。本文采用高压釜封闭体系对该区烃源岩和原油样品分别进行了热模拟实验,从烃类气体生成过程、气态烃与部分单体烃生成动力学特征讨论了二者的生气机理,认为原油裂解比源岩热解生气活化能高30～40 kJ/mol,原油比源岩生气需要更高的热力学条件。模拟实验证实,成熟阶段源岩热解气与原油裂解气相比,以环烷烃和芳烃相对含量低为特征,与民丰地区产出的天然气组成更接近,据此认为该区天然气主要为源岩热解成因。     

西北地区大气水汽含量时空分布及其输送研究

利用ECMWF和NCEP/NCAR 1979-2016年逐月再分析资料,分析了我国西北地区大气水汽含量的时空分布及其输送特征。结果表明：（1）西北地区水汽含量在20世纪80年代中期至90年代末呈增多趋势,从90年代开始至21世纪初呈减少趋势。就季节而言,西北地区夏季水汽含量最多,占年平均水汽含量的46.6%。（2）西北地区水汽分布与降水分布具有一致性,水汽含量主要集中在西北地区东部及其西部的天山山脉、塔里木盆地东部一带,达12～30 mm,中部水汽含量较少,不足10 mm,水汽含量的空间分布呈现出“两边高中间低”的分布形式。（3）西北地区水汽输送以西风和季风两大环流系统为主,纬向西风水汽输送可达100～500 kg·m^-1·s^-1,在全年水汽输送中占主要地位,夏季从印度洋来的强度可达100～200 kg·m^-1·s^-1的西南季风水汽输送对西北地区东部影响较显著。（4）西北地区水汽源主要位于新疆天山山脉、青海中东部、甘肃河西走廊中西段、宁夏和陕西北部等地区,而水汽汇则位于甘肃南部、陕西南部一带。     

基于地理探测器的区域土壤耕层有机碳含量 多元复合模型构建——以珠三角核心区为例

区域土壤耕层有机碳含量的精确测算,对于研究全球碳循环至关重要,但其影响因素多,空间变异性强,现有插值测算方法精度偏低。从提高测算精度出发,基于地理探测器技术,改进传统的协同克里格插值方法,构建多元复合模型进行区域土壤耕层有机碳含量的测算,并以珠三角核心区为例进行实际验证。结果表明：1）珠三角核心区土壤耕层有机碳含量空间变异与地形、水文、土壤和农田利用方式等有关,不同因素的贡献力存在较大差异,各因素贡献力（q统计量）在0.076~0.201之间,其中土壤理化性状与农田利用方式的贡献力大于地形、水文,区别不同因素的贡献力进行土壤耕层有机碳含量的精确测算应是客观要求。2）依照地理探测器分析结果,基于不同因素贡献力构建土壤耕层有机碳含量多元复合模型,插值测算精度明显提升,在珠三角核心区普通克里格、地理加权回归克里格和BP神经网络克里格的土壤耕层有机碳含量插值结果精度较多元复合模型下降16.62%、23.86%和37.33% 。由结果发现,多元复合模型突破了现有算法中辅助因素数量的局限,有效抑制了区域SOCC测算过程中的影响因素耦合噪声,降低了测算结果的不确定性。     

Depiction of Wild Food Foraging Practices in the Media: Impact of the Great Recession

The practice of gathering and harvesting wild foods has seen renewed interest in recent decades. In addition to contributing to food security and food sovereignty, foraging plays a role in promoting socioecological resilience and creating communities of belonging. However, foraging is generally prohibited by regulations governing public lands in the United States and elsewhere. The growth in food forests suggests public policymakers and land managers’ may be interested in reconsidering this broad prohibition of foraging but require an information base to do so. While a body of research on foraging exists, news media coverage of foraging represents an additional, readily available source of input. As a consequence, framings of foraging in media coverage likely influence managers’ deliberations on this practice. The current paper uses automated content analysis to understand how the practice of gathering and consuming wild foods is framed in print and digital news media, and how these depictions have varied in a 15-year period that includes the Great Recession. Our results show that prevalent framings of foraging represent it variously as a self-provisioning practice or a source of luxury commodities and experiences, with economic uncertainty appearing to affect the frequency of each framing by news media sources. Given managers’ ease of access to them, these distinct framings may influence future regulatory landscapes of foraging.     

Quantitative Analysis of Central Asian Countries’ Energy Security and Its Political Influence Factors

Central Asian countries are located in the heartland of the Eurasian Continent. Their geographic location puts their energy flows under tremendous geopolitical pressure from the countries along their limited number of pipelines. With energy trade data from the United Nations Comtrade Statistics Database in the period from 2005 to 2016, this paper evaluates energy security of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (exporter) and Kyrgyzstan (importer) using three standards: correlativeness, diversity, and the impact of international relations. It concludes that Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan’s oil markets are balanced in terms of correlation and diversification, and thus less subject to geopolitical pressure. Turkmenistan’s gas markets, on the other hand, still have tremendous exposure to geopolitical risks for lack of diversification. Kyrgyzstan, as an energy importer, could rely on a few neighboring countries for energy supply. We found out that the three Central Asian countries’ energy security is largely determined by four political factors: the relationship with Russia, the new “great game” in Eurasia, the rise of China, and Central Asian regional geopolitical configuration.