GRAPES全球模式浅对流过程和边界层云对低云预报的影响研究

在GRAPES全球模式云方案中加入浅对流卷出过程和边界层云对云水（冰）、云量的影响,改进模式低云预报,模拟比较改进前后预报结果,并与CERES（云和地球辐射能量系统）及YOTC（热带对流年科学计划）资料进行对比分析。结果表明：考虑浅对流卷出过程和边界层云后,主要增加了模式700 hPa以下低云量及低云中液态水凝物含量,改进后的结果与实际观测更接近。其中边界层层积云主要影响大气边界层顶附近较薄的一层云,影响厚度不超过200 hPa,浅对流卷出过程对云水和云量大小的影响与边界层云相当,而影响厚度则更广,对地面到700 hPa间的低云都会产生一定影响。进一步研究表明,由于低云预报的改进促进了地表和大气层顶云长短波辐射强迫的预报,云的辐射强迫得以增加。     

重庆地区一次雷暴云电过程及其对初始云滴数浓度响应的数值模拟

采用耦合了Saunders和Takahashi两种非感应起电参数化方案的RAMS(Regional Atmospheric Modeling System)模式,对重庆地区一次雷暴过程进行模拟,对比分析了两种起电参数化方案下,电荷开始分离时和雷暴云发展到成熟阶段时的水成物粒子的分布、所带电荷密度以及雷暴云的电荷结构分布。模拟结果表明,在Saunders起电参数化方案下,雷暴云的电荷结构从起电到放电都呈现偶极性特征,而在Takahashi参数化方案下,雷暴云的电荷结构则由反偶极性发展成正偶极性。为研究CCN(cloud condensation nuclei)对雷暴云的影响,本文进行了两组敏感性试验,随着云滴初始数浓度增加,雷暴云的电荷结构没有发生极性翻转,但雷暴云中电荷量增加,电荷分布区域变大,有利于闪电发生。在Saunders起电参数化方案下,当云滴初始数浓度大于2 000 cm-3时,电荷量变小。通过分析微物理量场和微物理过程发现,随着云滴初始数浓度增加,冰相粒子质量混合比增加,在Saunders起电参数化方案下,当云滴初始数浓度大于2 000 cm-3时,霰粒子质量混合比减小。验证了CCN的变化能影响云的微物理过程,从而影响雷暴云的电荷分布以及闪电的发生,尤其是冰相物质的变化显著影响了雷暴云的起电过程。     

Carbon Reduction Policies: A Regional Comparison of Their Contributions to CO2 Abatement in Six Carbon Trading Pilot Schemes in China

The contributions of carbon reduction policies were evaluated and compared for six carbon trading pilot schemes in China, in four municipalities(Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing) and two provinces(Guangdong and Hubei). The carbon emissions accounting method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was used to calculate the actual CO2 and the support vector machine model was used to predict CO2. Chinese carbon reduction policies abated CO2 in the six carbon trading pilot schemes after the comprehensive policies came into force. However, the contribution of policies to CO2 abatement varied among regions, and the effect of carbon reduction policy on municipality pilot schemes was greater than on provincial pilot schemes. The largest contribution of carbon reduction policy to CO2 abatement was 28.3%, for the pilot carbon trading scheme in Beijing, and the smallest contribution was 3.7%, for that in Hubei. It is crucial to consider “carbon leakage” and a carbon trading linking program in order to evaluate the effects of carbon reduction policies.     

海洋溢油应急响应决策支持系统设计与实现

海洋溢油事件近年来层出不穷,严重威胁海洋生态安全与国家切身利益。海洋溢油应急响应决策支持系统针对海洋频发的溢油事件,基于C#,Arc Engine进行桌面端(即C/S)架构设计与实现,由溢油事件信息、应急资源管理、响应方案生成以及溢油应急处置资料库四部分构成。海洋溢油应急响应决策支持系统的开发是旨在当海洋溢油事件发生后,在第一时间依据详尽事件信息基础资料以及数据库中已有的基础地理资料、应急资源信息自动生成应急响应方案,辅助决策者快速制定合理有效溢油围控、清理方案,以求在最短时间内采用调用应急资源和相应操作管理人员最大限度清除溢油,为海洋产业正常运转保驾护航。     

江苏沿江开发带地下水开采与地面沉降三维数值模拟

根据江苏沿江开发带地下水系统的水文地质机制以及地面沉降机理,在概化出江苏沿江开发带的地下水系统水文地质概念模型和地面沉降模型的基础上,建立了江苏沿江开发带地下水开采与地面沉降三维数值模型。并针对各种开采方案下地面累积沉降量最少的原则,给出了各含水层的最优开采方案。     

Small‐scale variability in surface moisture on a fine‐grained beach: implications for modeling aeolian transport

Small‐scale variations in surface moisture content were measured on a fine‐grained beach using a Delta‐T Theta probe. The resulting data set was used to examine the implications of small‐scale variability for estimating aeolian transport potential. Surface moisture measurements were collected on a 40 cm × 40 cm grid at 10 cm intervals, providing a total of 25 measurements for each grid data set. A total of 44 grid data sets were obtained from a representative set of beach sub‐environments. Measured moisture contents ranged from about 0% (dry) to 25% (saturated), by weight. The moisture content range within a grid data set was found to vary from less than 1% to almost 15%. The magnitude of within‐grid variability varied consistently with the mean moisture content of the grid sets, following an approximately normal distribution. Both very wet and very dry grid data sets exhibited little internal variability in moisture content, while intermediate moisture contents were associated with higher levels of variability. Thus, at intermediate moisture contents it was apparent that some portions of the beach surface could be dry enough to allow aeolian transport (i.e. moisture content is below the critical threshold), while adjacent portions are too wet for transport to occur. To examine the implications of this finding, cumulative distribution functions were calculated to model the relative proportions of beach surface area expected to be above or below specified threshold moisture levels (4%, 7%, and 14%). It was found that the implicit inclusion of small‐scale variability in surface moisture levels typically resulted in changes of less than 1% in the beach area available for transport, suggesting that this parameter can be ignored at larger spatial scales. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An implicit method using contravariant velocity components and its application to calculations in a harbour-channel area

lNTRODUCTIONAsoneofthenumericalcalculationmethodsinvolvingfluiddynamicsinnearshoreareas,theboundaryfittedgridmethodhasmanyadvantagessuchasfittingboundaries,beingsuitableforengineeringconstructionswithsmallscalesandimprovingtheaccuracybydensifyinggridpointsintheinterestedareas'Incomparisonwiththefiniteelementmethodwithnon-uniformgrids,theboundary-fittedgridmodelismorewidelyusedbecauseofitssuperioritiesinusingthematurefi-nitedifferenceschemeandinoccupyingsma1lcomputermemory(Sheng,l986;Haase.…     

论测量仪器的精密整平及对中技术

本文比较全面的阐述了用于仪器整平、对中的各种技术,给出了实现仪器精密整平、对中的方法。并分析了对中误差对不同边长的角度测量精度的影响,指出短边测量时,对中偏差会严重影响观测质量,最后展望了摆脱整平、对中问题的前景。     

RegCM3模式在西北地区的应用研究Ⅱ:区域选择及参数化方案的敏感性

通过数值模拟方法,研究了降水对区域尺度、积云对流参数化等的敏感性.结果表明:由于较小区域尺度的模式内部场和大尺度分析场激发的外强迫之间有更强的束缚,这种束缚使得内外强迫更容易达到一致.小区域尺度模拟的降水型比大的区域尺度的模拟更好,但同时,大的区域尺度消弱了由于模式侧边界效应产生的虚假动力效应,模拟的降水在量值上更加接近于观测值.因此,进行区域气候模拟时,须根据需要对模式区域进行仔细的选择.结果同时表明,由于Grell方案倾向于模拟更多的对流降水,因此Kuo-Anthes方案对西北地区降水型和量值的模拟比Grell方案更接近于实际.由于地形对于降水的重要意义,在复杂地形下进行区域气候模拟时有必要在模式中仔细描述地形.     

烃类垂向微渗漏过程的积木块模型及差分格式

这里提出以代表质量守恒的反应对流扩散方程作为主控方程的烃类垂向微渗漏方程组的差分格式,即双向一维分裂校正差分格式,并建立地层积木块模型对该格式的边界进行讨论。差分格式是预估～校正差分格式的一种改进形式,它融合了Crank-Nicolson格式、交替方向隐格式、预估～校正差分格式的特点,具有二阶差分精度,且无条件稳定。由于差分格式将每一步都归结为求解三对角线方程组,因此适合并行运算。数值实验表明,应用差分格式的数值模拟结果符合烃类垂向微渗漏过程的理论模型,可作为烃类垂向微渗漏过程分析的计算方法。