Fully probabilistic seismic displacement analysis of spatially distributed slopes using spatially correlated vector intensity measures

Earthquake‐induced slope displacement is an important parameter for safety evaluation and earthquake design of slope systems. Traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis usually focuses on evaluating slope displacement at a particular location, and it is not suitable for spatially distributed slopes over a large region. This study proposes a computationally efficient framework for fully probabilistic seismic displacement analysis of spatially distributed slope systems using spatially correlated vector intensity measures (IMs). First, a spatial cross‐correlation model for three key ground motion IMs, that is, peak ground acceleration (PGA), Arias intensity, and peak ground velocity, is developed using 2686 ground motion recordings from 11 recent earthquakes. To reduce the computational cost, Monte Carlo simulation and data reduction techniques are utilized to generate spatially correlated random fields for the vector IMs. The slope displacement hazards over the region are further quantified using empirical predictive equations. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to highlight the importance of the spatial correlation and the advantage of using spatially correlated vector IMs in seismic hazard analysis of spatially distributed slopes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determination of column size for displacement‐based design of reinforced concrete frame buildings

This article reports a method to determine the storey‐wise column size for displacement‐based design of reinforced concrete frame buildings with a wide range of storey drift and building plan. The method uses a computer program based algorithm. The basic relation used in the algorithm is formulated by considering the various possible deformation components involved in the overall frame deformation. As a necessity to represent the deformation component due to plastic rotation of beam members, a relation between the beam plastic rotation and the target‐drift is adopted. To control the dynamic amplification of interstorey drift, a target‐drift dependant design‐drift reduction factor is used. The dynamic amplification of column moment is accounted with the help of an approximate conversion of fundamental period of the building from the effective period of the equivalent SDOF system. To avoid the formation of plastic hinge in column members, a design‐drift dependant column–beam moment capacity ratio is used. The method successfully determines the storey‐wise column size for buildings of four plans of different varieties, heights up to 12 storeys and target‐drift up to 3%. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

荣成鲁32井水温动态变化及异常分析

总结了鲁32井水温正常动态特征以及自然环境干扰形态特征,探究鲁32井水温异常变化特征,通过对该井周围500km范围内中等地震及远场大震发生时间、空间与水温异常时段对比,发现两者对应关系良好,综合分析已有数据资料认为,鲁32井水温存在附加地热场异常变化的构造条件,可作为近场中等地震前兆异常和远场大震前兆异常中短期判别指标之一。     

Improved evaluation of inelastic displacement demands for short‐period masonry structures

This work discusses the simplified estimation of earthquake‐induced nonlinear displacement demands as required by nonlinear static procedures, with particular attention on short‐period masonry structures. The study focuses on systems with fundamental periods between 0.1 and 0.5 s, for which inelastic amplification of the elastic displacement demand is more pronounced; hysteretic force‐displacement relationships characteristic of masonry structures are adopted, because these structures are more commonly found within the considered period range. Referring to the results of nonlinear dynamic analyses of single‐degree‐of‐freedom oscillators, some limitations of the Eurocode 8 and Italian Building Code formulations are first discussed, then an improved equation is calibrated that relates inelastic and elastic displacement demands. Numerical values of the equation parameters are obtained, considering the amount of hysteretic energy dissipation associated with various damage mechanisms observed in masonry structures. Safety factors are also calculated to determine several percentiles of the displacement demand. It is shown that the proposed equation can be extended to more dissipative systems. Finally, the same formulation is adapted to the estimation of seismic displacements when elastic analysis procedures are employed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantification of bank erosion in a drained agricultural lowland catchment

The long‐term and current volumes of sediment exported from stream banks were calculated as potential sources of sediment in a large pond located at the catchment outlet of a small agricultural lowland basin strongly affected by anthropogenic pressure in France. Bank erosion was measured over a short period using a network of erosion pins along a small stream (1400 m long) to quantify the material exported during a single winter (2012–2013). The material exported by this same stream over the last 69 years was quantified using an original approach involving the comparison of a compilation of three‐dimensional historical stream redesign plans that date back to 1944 with the state of the banks in 2013 (differential global positioning system and LiDAR data). The results suggest that a global trend of material loss along the stream banks monitored by erosion pins, with an average erosion rate of 17.7 mm year^?1 and an average volume of exported material of 75 t km^?1. Over 69 years, this same stream exported an average of 36 t km^?1 year^?1, and the average loss of material from the banks throughout the whole catchment was estimated to be 14 t km^?1 year^?1. The contribution of bank material to the filling of the pond over the last 10 years is between 46% and 52% based on an extrapolation of erosion pin dynamics or between 27% and 30% based on the comparison of LiDAR data to the average historical profile extrapolated for the catchment. These results suggest that bank erosion represents a major source of sediment in degraded waters in traditionally understudied agricultural lowland catchments, where anthropogenic pressures are high.     

Increasing water losses from snow captured in the canopy of boreal forests: A case study using a 30 year data set

Water losses from snow intercepted by forest canopy can significantly influence the hydrological cycle in seasonally snow‐covered regions, yet how snow interception losses (SIL) are influenced by a changing climate are poorly understood. In this study, we used a unique 30 year record (1986–2015) of snow accumulation and snow water equivalent measurements in a mature mixed coniferous (Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris ) forest stand and an adjacent open area to assess how changes in weather conditions influence SIL. Given little change in canopy cover during this study, the 20% increase in SIL was likely the result of changes in winter weather conditions. However, there was no significant change in average wintertime precipitation and temperature during the study period. Instead, mean monthly temperature values increased during the early winter months (i.e., November and December), whereas there was a significant decrease in precipitation in March. We also assessed how daily variation in meteorological variables influenced SIL and found that about 50% of the variation in SIL was correlated to the amount of precipitation that occurred when temperatures were lower than ?3 °C and to the proportion of days with mean daily temperatures higher than +0.4 °C. Taken together, this study highlights the importance of understanding the appropriate time scale and thresholds in which weather conditions influence SIL in order to better predict how projected climate change will influence snow accumulation and hydrology in boreal forests in the future.     

Effects of coastal erosion on landslide activity revealed by multi-sensor observations

Coastal erosion is becoming an increasingly serious consequence of climate change. This study demonstrates the effects of coastal erosion on landslide activity while considering the amount of erosion and changes in pore water pressure. To determine the factors related to landslide slip generation, we specifically measured the displacement, deformation, pore water pressure, and amount of erosion with high temporal resolution (1 s–1 h) for a coastal landslide in Hokkaido, north-eastern Japan, for 7 months. It has been determined that landslides occur simultaneously with high pore water pressure. Toe erosion events also occurred several times, while the landslide exhibited major displacement. Because toe erosion and the increase in pore water pressure occurred simultaneously, we tried to determine which of the two contributed majorly to the landslide displacement by conducting a stability analysis that incorporates the effects of the two factors. From the actual observed data, toe erosion and the increase in pore water pressure had comparable effects on the destabilization of the studied landslide. Specifically, the time series for the safety factor shows that the landslide in the case with toe erosion was destabilized more than that in the case with no erosion, with a difference of more than 5% in the safety factor. The model with toe erosion provided a better explanation for the landslide displacement. Furthermore, the inclination data suggested that erosion took place at least 1 month before the landslide displacement. This implied that coastal erosion played a role in the preparation and ongoing displacement of the coastal landslide. Inland landslides with toes that are subject to undercutting due to river incision or artificial construction have geomorphological settings that are similar to those of the studied landslide. The knowledge obtained here can contribute to the understanding of destabilization mechanisms and terrain changes related to such landslides. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2016年8月24日意大利佩鲁贾MW 6.2级地震同震位移场估计和震源滑动模型反演

利用改进的自动经验基线校正方法SMBLOC,对2016年8月24日意大利佩鲁贾MW 6.2级地震震中周围约60 km内的近场强震记录进行基线校正并尝试给出同震位移场,与GPS观测结果进行对比分析,分别独立和联合两种资料反演震源滑动模型,并根据震源模型进一步给出全空间预测位移场分布.研究结果表明:(1)两种不同的资料给出的水平位移场幅值均为cm级,且均表明断层的错动以正断为主.(2)两种同震位移场分别独立和联合反演所得的震源静态滑动范围基本一致,最大滑动均发生在震中东北侧,强震模型表现出明显的双事件特征,较大滑动分布在震中东北侧和东南侧,GPS模型在震中东南侧的滑动相对较小,其双事件特征不明显.两种模型的最大滑动量分别为0.96 m和0.86 m,较为一致,反演的矩震级均在MW 6.3左右.(3)根据震源滑动模型计算所得的佩鲁贾地震全空间预测的水平同震位移场中最大位移分布区域与震后报告中受灾严重的地区基本一致.表明在一定的条件下,利用SMBLOC方法解算震级较小的MW 6.0左右地震强震记录的同震位移场,并反演震源滑动模型具有一定的可行性,且其同震位移场和滑动模型可为震后灾害快速评估、救援力量分配、余震趋势判定等快速应急响应工作提供参考依据.     

钢桁架(ST)约束混凝土组合柱抗震性能研究

目前,组合柱在建筑结构中进行了广泛应用和研究,研究表明:截面形式对组合柱的抗震性能有很大影响。首先,对钢桁架(ST)约束混凝土组合柱进行了试验研究。并在此基础上,利用有限元软件ABAQUS建立了数值分析模型;其次,基于数值分析模型,分析了组合柱中各部件的应力应变状态,分别考察了轴压比、缀板排列方式、体积配箍率、角钢肢宽与肢厚等因素对柱抗震性能的影响;最后,给出了组合柱在不同抗震等级下轴压比限值的建议值,可为后续组合柱的研究提供参考。研究表明:随着轴压比的增大,组合柱的延性变差,承载力先增大后减小;合理的缀板排列方式可有效抑制角钢的局部屈曲;随着体积配箍率的增大,组合柱的承载力有一定提升,延性提高较为显著;随着角钢肢宽和肢厚的增加,组合柱的承载力和延性均有显著提升。     

2018年精河5.4级地震前地磁日变化畸变异常分析

2018年10月16日新疆精河5.4级地震发生时,震中附近的台站不同程度上记录了地磁日变化畸变异常,如地磁总强度F02时每日一值空间相关异常、地磁垂直分量加卸载响应比异常、地磁低点位移以及地磁日变化空间相关异常等。统计震前观测到的所有地磁异常,并分析研究了其震前异常变化特征。得到如下结论:(1)从全国每日一值相关分析结果看,震前114天出现每日一值空间相关异常,异常高值台为乌鲁木齐和克拉玛依;(2)震前59天沿北天山断裂带分布的地磁台站加卸载响应比均成组出现超限的高值,且异常高值的空间分布跟震中位置有一定关联;(3)中国大陆地磁台站震前37天出现低点位移突变分界线,且异常集中于震中附近;(4)震前出现地磁垂直分量日变化空间相关异常,异常台站空间上也主要集中于北天山地区。因此地磁垂直分量日变形态及有关的计算方法短期内具有一定的预报效能,可为今后利用地磁方法预测地震积累经验和震例。