基于Matlab的断裂带温泉水地球化学特征及地震活动性研究

基于Matlab开发出地下流体分析软件,对比分析了甘肃西秦岭北缘的武山、街子和清水温泉水化学组分特征;初步分析了温泉水水质类型、补给来源、水-岩平衡状态以及循环深度,并讨论了温泉水深循环对地震活动性的影响.研究表明温泉水均为大气降水成因,其水化特征受围岩的控制作用;清水温泉水的成熟度没有武山和街子温泉水高.地下水循环深度较浅的武山温泉和街子温泉水化类型属于Na-HCO3·SO4·Cl,所处断裂的地震活动频繁;地下水循环深度较深的清水温泉水化类型属于Na-SO4·Cl,所处断裂的地震活动性弱.     

青藏高原东北缘M_s≥6.0强震活动特征及未来形势研究

2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震打破了青藏高原东北缘地区自2003年以来近十年的6级平静,该地震的意义及该区未来震情发展受到了地震学家的关注.本文运用Morlet小波变换分析了1875-2013年青藏高原东北缘MS≥6.0强震活动的周期特征,结果表明该区强震存在2～3年、8～10年、25～30年等尺度的显著周期;1977年以来青藏高原东北缘地区强震活动频度虽然正常但活动强度处于一个相对较低的阶段.在讨论了岷县漳县6.6级地震的发震背景基础上,认为该地震在青藏高原东北缘强震活动长时间较弱的背景下发生,可能是该区强震活动强弱的一个拐点,未来该区强震活动的频度与强度有增加的趋势.研究结果对该区震情跟踪工作有一定的参考价值.     

利用Terra和Aqua卫星地表温度探索汶川地震同震热响应

如何从卫星热红外遥感影像中提取出可靠的、能够验证的、与构造活动有关的热信息,是利用热红外信息研究构造现今活动亟待完善的问题之一.从信息提取的角度看,地震前后所对应的物理变化最为强烈,同震热响应可能是利用热信息探索现今构造活动潜在的突破点.本文以MODIS/Terra和MODIS/Aqua两颗卫星的地表温度为基础,探索汶川地震同震热响应.首先,去除了由地形等静态因素和太阳年周期组成的稳定背景;其次,去除大气环流的影响,获得由本地因素产生的原地温度场.最后,在原地温度场中,发现了汶川地震的同震温度响应.经过检验,上述温度响应的空间展布形态与发震断层的活动方式产生的力学效应吻合.从应力变化与温度响应的关系看,本文相当于借助热信息获得了汶川地震同震拉张或卸载区的空间展布情况.     

Application du réseau des neurones artificiels à la prévision des débits horaires: Cas du bassin versant de l’Eure,France

RÉSUMÉ

Les modèles pluie–débit sont fortement utilisés dans la gestion des risques hydrologiques et la prévision des crues. Dans cette étude, nous présentons un modèle pluie–débit pour la prévision des débits horaires basé sur la technique des réseaux de neurones artificiels (RNA). Ce modèle a été développé et appliqué sur le bassin versant de l’Eure au Nord-Ouest de la France afin de dépasser les problèmes dus à la non-linéarité de la relation pluie–débit et à l’imprécision des données collectées. La création de ce modèle a nécessité plusieurs étapes pendant lesquelles nous avons pu déterminer les paramètres du modèle permettant la compréhension de la complexité hydrologique et la production des informations nécessaires à la prévision. Elles ont abouti à un modèle de réseau de neurones artificiels capable d’effectuer, en quelques secondes, des prévisions des crues efficaces jusqu’à un horizon de prévision de 48 h. Ces résultats confirment que les modèles RNA peuvent jouer un rôle important dans le domaine de la prévision car capables de modéliser la non-linéarité des relations pluie–débit rencontrées sur certains bassins hydrologiques.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor E. Gargouri     

Decreasing trend of sediment transfer function of the Upper Yellow River,China, in response to human activity and climate change

Abstract

An index (F_s) for sediment transfer function is introduced, based on the sediment budget at the channel scale. The purpose of this study is two-fold: to gain a deeper insight into how F_s is influenced by natural and human factors, and to provide some new knowledge for decision making in the management of the Upper Yellow River, China. Since 1960, the F_s of the Lanzhou to Toudaoguai reach of the Upper Yellow River shows a decreasing trend. At the drainage basin level, the decreased F_s can be explained by changes in precipitation and air temperature, as well as by a number of variables describing human activity, such as reservoir regulation, water diversion, and soil and water conservation. The higher temperature reduces the transfer function, while the larger runoff coefficient increases it. At the channel level, the decreased F_s can be explained by a number of variables of flow and sediment input. Three countermeasures for restoration of the F_s are suggested.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

夏垫断裂带深部构造特征与第四纪活动性讨论

利用重力、浅层地震和高密度电阻率法物探工作成果,由深及浅垂向上“接力拼接”的方式,结合钻探等手段,把夏垫断裂带分解为基岩断裂带和第四纪断裂带2个部分进行研究,结果表明:1)夏垫断裂带的基岩断裂带由主干断裂和次级断裂构成.其北段(马坊-西集一带)较窄,由2条主干断裂构成.其南段(西集-凤河营一带)较宽,由3条主干断裂构成.2)第四纪断裂带是基岩断裂带向上延伸的部分,是断裂带最新活动的直观表现,并受控于基岩断裂带.夏垫第四纪断裂带同样由主干和次级断裂构成,北段(马坊-西集一带)由2条主干断裂和分布于北端尾部次级断裂构成,与基岩断裂带一一对应关系较好.2条主干断裂产状差异较大,最新活动时间均为全新世.而南段(西集-凤河营一带)断裂分布不连续,很难分清主次断裂,同基岩断裂带的对应关系较差,推测为基岩断裂中夏垫断裂的活动.这些主、次级断裂产状均较为陡立,最新活动时间为晚更新世晚期-全新世早期.3)夏垫断裂带内上、下两盘全新世沉积底界垂向累积位错量为1.7 ～4.8m,晚、中、早更新世以来则分别为6 ～ 26m、26 ～ 167m和44 ～ 330m,其中最大累积位错量位于夏垫地区,向南、北逐渐减小.4)以张家湾断裂为界把夏垫断裂带划分为南、北2段.北段第四纪活动性强,中强震及微小地震时有发生,而南段第四纪活动性弱,仅发生微小地震.     

Estimating water balance components of tropical wetland lakes in the Pantanal dry season,Brazil

Abstract

Water balance studies with stable water isotopes have rarely been conducted in remote and tropical wetland areas. As such, little is known regarding the water balance and groundwater–surface water interaction in the Pantanal, one of the largest and most pristine wetlands in the world. We applied MINA TrêS, a water balance model utilizing stable water isotopes (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) and chloride (Cl^-) to assess the dry-season hydrological processes controlling groundwater–surface water interactions and the water balance of six floodplain lakes in the northern Pantanal, Brazil. Qualitatively, all lakes exhibited similarity in hydrological controls. Quantitatively, they differed significantly due to morphological differences in controlling groundwater inflow and lake volume. Our approach is readily transferable to other remote and tropical wetland systems with minimal data input requirements, which is useful in regions with sparse hydrometric monitoring.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

The impact of subsurface conceptualization on land energy fluxes

There is a significant body of work demonstrating the importance of hydrologic control on land energy feedbacks. Yet, quantitative data on aquifer conductivity can be difficult to assemble. Furthermore, how subsurface uncertainty propagates into land-surface processes is not well understood. This study analyzes the impact of aquifer characterization on land energy fluxes, using a coupled hydrology–land-surface model. Four gridded subsurface conductivity fields are developed for the Upper Klamath basin using two data sources and different levels of imposed heterogeneity. Each model is forced with the same transient, observed meteorology for 3 years prior to the final year presented here. Results are analyzed to quantify the impact of subsurface heterogeneity on groundwater surface water interactions and spatial patterns in hydrologic variables. Analysis shows that heterogeneity does not fundamentally alter the connection between groundwater and land surface processes. However, differences between scenarios impact the extent and location of the critical zone.     

Influence of capillary-pressure models on CO2 solubility trapping

The typical shape of a capillary-pressure curve is either convex (e.g., Brooks–Corey model) or S-shaped (e.g., van Genuchten model). It is not universally agreed which model reflects natural rocks better. The difference between the two models lies in the representation of the capillary entry pressure. This difference does not lead to significantly different simulation results for modeling CO₂ sequestration in aquifers without considering CO₂ dissolution. However, we observe that the van-Genuchten-type capillary-pressure model accelerates CO₂ solubility trapping significantly compared with the Brooks–Corey-type model. We also show that the simulation results are very sensitive to the slope of the van-Genuchten-type curve around the entry-pressure region. For the representative examples we study, the differences can be so large as to have complete dissolution of the CO₂ plume versus persistence of over 50% of the plume over a 5000-year period.The cause of such sensitivity to the capillary-pressure model is studied. Particularly, we focus on how the entry pressure is represented in each model. We examine the mass-transfer processes under gravity-capillary equilibrium, molecular diffusion, convective mixing, and in the presence of small-scale heterogeneities. Laboratory measurement of capillary-pressure curves and some important implementation issues of capillary-pressure models in numerical simulators are also discussed. Most CO₂ sequestration simulations in the literature employ one of the two capillary-pressure models. It is important to recognize that these two representations lead to very different predictions of long-term CO₂ sequestration.     

Geospatial predictive modelling of the Neolithic archaeological sites of Magnesia in Greece

Abstract

Sources of heterogeneous geospatial data such as the elevation, the slope, the aspect, the water network and the current settlements related to the known Neolithic archaeological sites of Magnesia, are used in an attempt to confirm the existence and allow for the prediction of other archaeological sites using predictive modelling theory. Predictive modelling allows the update of the problem solving strategy as soon as new data layers are available. The Dempster–Shafer Theory also commonly referred to as evidential reasoning (ER) is used to compose probability maps of areas of archaeological interest from physiographical and historical data. The advantage of this theory is that the ignorance is quantified and used to compose the probability maps named as belief, plausibility and belief interval for the archaeological sites. The final digital probability maps show that the Neolithic archaeological sites can be detected in the prefecture of Magnesia. This research study forms a methodological tool for the prediction of new archaeological sites in other areas of archaeological interest according to the physiographical and historical characteristics of the archaeological period being examined. It also contributes to the digital earth modelling and archaeological site protection, one of the most critical and challenging global initiatives.