Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Territorializing land conflict: Space,place, and contentious politics in the Brazilian Amazon

Brazil possesses a long history of violent struggle for land, and its most recent phase is occurring predominantly in the Amazon Basin. Consequently, this paper attempts to territorialize land conflict in the Brazilian Amazon, and in so doing, to illuminate the place-specific intersection of historic social, political, and economic circumstance that created a violent landscape in the so-called “South of Pará.” The paper’s premise is that such conflict can be best viewed as resulting from a dialectic between general social processes operating across spatial scales, which create necessary conditions for conflict, and place-specific historical circumstances that transform necessary into sufficient conditions. The paper presents a framework integrating the theory of contentious politics and literatures addressing violence associated with the Amazonian frontier and with resource scarcity (and abundance). The discussion and theoretical application deconstruct the environmental, cognitive, and relational mechanisms that created violence in the South of Pará, and set the stage for the Eldorado dos Carajás massacre in April of 1996.     

人口生态生产:人地作用机制下"三江并流"世界遗产保护的新视角

基于不同人口需要而进行的人类活动对“三江并流”区的地理环境产生了巨大影响,形成了独具特色的人地作用机制。这一作用机制一方面对“三江并流”世界遗产的保护构成了威胁,但另一方面,通过人口生态生产,实现人口数量、质量、结构和分布的生态化,改进人类活动,也可优化“三江并流”区的地理环境,保护“三江并流”世界遗产,实现该地区的可持续发展。     

GPS精密卫星钟差估计研究

随着精密单点定位技术的发展,对于精确的卫星坐标以及卫星钟差改正精度的要求越来越高,精密卫星星历以及精密卫星钟差的求解成为制约精密单点定位技术发展的瓶颈。本文基于修复周跳的载波相位观测值与相位平滑伪距观测值,采用无电离层延迟星间单差精密卫星钟差估计模型,在先估计出整周模糊度后,进行了精密卫星钟差的估计,并采用与IGS事后精密钟差作二次差的方法进行精度分析,这对于提高精密单点定位精度具有一定的意义。     

北斗三频伪距相关随机模型单站建模方法

为了提供可靠的伪距随机模型,基于3个线性无关的北斗三频伪距/载波无几何无电离层(GIF)组合,研究了一种利用单站数据估计北斗三频伪距相关随机模型算法。该算法首先利用低阶多项式对GIF组合进行拟合,以尽可能消除非伪距噪声以外的其他常数和误差,然后利用多元线性回归分析实现对3个线性无关的GIF组合随机噪声同时建模,最后再由线性组合关系变换得到原始北斗三频伪距相关随机模型。经北斗三频实测数据验证结果表明,该算法可实现北斗非差三频伪距相关随机模型的单站解算,有利于为导航定位以及完好性监测提供精准随机模型。     

GPS 高程转换的总体最小二乘组合方法

在现有GPS高程转换的研究中,通常只采用单一的解算方法,然而,不同的计算方法由于适用的条件不同,在对同一组数据进行解算时,解算的精度也各有优劣。针对以上问题,文中提出GPS高程转换的总体最小二乘组合方法,对多种不同的高程转换方法进行组合,运用总体最小二乘法计算不同方法的权值,结合实际工程数据,验证该方法的可行性。计算结果表明,提出的方法能够有效地提高高程转换精度。     

一种改进的基于 BDS 三频非差观测的周跳实时探测与修复模型

BDS三频观测条件下可以组合得到具有优良特性的虚拟载波观测量,有利于改善非差观测数据的周跳实时探测与修复。文中提出一种基于BDS三频非差数据的周跳实时探测与修复模型:首先,采用消电离层无几何HMW组合观测量探测和修复EWL周跳;然后,将经过修复的EWL观测量与WL组合消除几何相关项,忽略电离层延迟残差进而确定WL周跳;最后采用经过修复的WL观测量与NL组合形成无几何观测量,并通过优化载波相位组合确定电离层延迟的变化量以探测和计算NL周跳,并通过简单变换得到原始载波观测量的周跳值。通过实测BDS三频数据对模型可行性进行验证分析,结果表明,即使在30s的采样率以及电离层活动活跃条件下,该模型都可有效实时探测和修复各类周跳。     

AAC算法的大气校正复合改进算法

利用模拟数据,评价Autonomous Atmospheric Compensation(AAC)算法的抗噪性,认为AAC算法的抗噪性较弱。基于TASI实测数据,利用AAC算法开展反演计算时,计算结果呈现出多样性问题。结合In-scene Atmospheric Compensation(ISAC)算法中黑体像元的标定方法,提出了一种复合改进算法。首先,利用ISAC算法反演的大气透过率和路径辐射,重新计算AAC算法中大气透过率之比(Tr)和相邻两强弱吸收通道的路径辐射之差(Pd),再次,运用经验公式获得稳定的大气反演结果(大气透过率和路径辐射),有效解决了计算结果多样性的问题。利用复合改进算法,开展的温度与发射率分离实验,证明反演得到的发射率波谱更接近野外实测波谱。     

水质关键因素光谱遥感监测技术分析

针对传统水体水质分析方法过度依赖于实地测量和实验室化学分析,需要耗费大量人力物力且效率不高的问题,从水质遥感监测数据获取手段、典型反演监测模型、不同水体光谱遥感监测应用状况、水质遥感监测技术应用及前景等方面分析归纳了使用遥感技术监测水质的新方法。从可用数据类型、数据特征等方面对水质遥感监测数据获取的3种主要手段进行了比较;从复杂程度、使用场景、优缺点等方面对4种典型的反演模型进行了归纳;对遥感数据和模型在Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类水体应用中的常用组合方式进行了分析总结。     

黑龙江通河县曙光石场地区土壤地球化学特征与成矿预测

为查明曙光石场地区各成矿元素和矿(化)体的分布特征,在1∶2万土壤地球化学测量的基础上,对研究区多种成矿元素进行聚类分析和因子分析。研究表明:区内Ag、Pb、Zn、Bi、Sn单元素异常个数多、变异系数值较高,具有较强的成矿潜力;区内Ag-Pb-Zn元素组合异常套和极好,异常强度较强,与岩浆热液型成矿作用相关,具有较好的找矿前景;根据单元素异常的套合情况及元素共生组合规律圈定组合异常六处并进行了槽探工程验证,在Ht-4组合异常处发现一铅锌银矿点,矿体、矿化体产于上石炭统唐家屯组流纹质凝灰岩中。