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71.
lvaro Gonzlez Miguel Vzquez-Prada Javier B. Gmez Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319
Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data. 相似文献
72.
The high activity level of Hybrid Events (HE) detected beneath the Cayambe volcano since 1989 has been more thoroughly investigated with data from a temporary array. The unusual HE spectral content allows separating a high-frequency signal riding on a low-frequency one, with a probable single source. HEs are interpreted as high frequency VT events, produced by the interaction between magmatic heat and an underground water system fed by thaw water from the summital glacier, which trigger simultaneous low-frequency fluid resonance in the highly fractured adjacent medium. Pure VTs are interpreted as ‘aborted’ HEs occurring probably in the oldest and coldest part of the volcano complex. To cite this article: B. Guillier, J.-L. Chatelain, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006). 相似文献
73.
Comparison of histories of great earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis at eight coastal sites suggests plate-boundary ruptures of varying length, implying great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone. Inference of rupture length relies on degree of overlap on radiocarbon age ranges for earthquakes and tsunamis, and relative amounts of coseismic subsidence and heights of tsunamis. Written records of a tsunami in Japan provide the most conclusive evidence for rupture of much of the plate boundary during the earthquake of 26 January 1700. Cascadia stratigraphic evidence dating from about 1600 cal yr B.P., similar to that for the 1700 earthquake, implies a similarly long rupture with substantial subsidence and a high tsunami. Correlations are consistent with other long ruptures about 1350 cal yr B.P., 2500 cal yr B.P., 3400 cal yr B.P., 3800 cal yr B.P., 4400 cal yr B.P., and 4900 cal yr B.P. A rupture about 700-1100 cal yr B.P. was limited to the northern and central parts of the subduction zone, and a northern rupture about 2900 cal yr B.P. may have been similarly limited. Times of probable short ruptures in southern Cascadia include about 1100 cal yr B.P., 1700 cal yr B.P., 3200 cal yr B.P., 4200 cal yr B.P., 4600 cal yr B.P., and 4700 cal yr B.P. Rupture patterns suggest that the plate boundary in northern Cascadia usually breaks in long ruptures during the greatest earthquakes. Ruptures in southernmost Cascadia vary in length and recurrence intervals more than ruptures in northern Cascadia. 相似文献
74.
在总结前人研究成果的基础上,全面系统地分析了诱发招远市金矿区崩塌的自然和人为因数,然后运用遥感技术对金矿区遥感图像进行处理,提取诱发崩塌的条件因子,聘请有经验的专家对各项诱发因子进行诊断分析,以此作为判断条件,在G IS技术的支持下对诱发崩塌的条件因子进行空间分析,预测出招远金矿区发生崩塌的危害程度,为防治崩塌提供科学依据。预测结果表明,招远金矿区崩塌有进一步发展的可能,其中,高危险区有36820 m2,中易发区有50 610 m2,低易发区有67 200 m2,需要采取有效措施加以防治。 相似文献
75.
76.
A decision support system (DSS) has been developed to assist expert and non-expert users in the evaluation and selection of
eco-engineering strategies for slope protection. This DSS combines a qualitative hazard assessment of erosion and mass movements
with a detailed catalogue of eco-engineering strategies for slope protection of which the suitability is evaluated in relation
to the data entered. The slope decision support system (SDSS) is a knowledge based DSS in which knowledge is stored in frames
containing rules that can evaluate the available information for a project, stored as project specific information (PSI) in
a data file. The advantages of such a system are that it accepts incomplete information and that the qualitative nature of
the information does not instil the user with a sense of unjustified exactitude. By its multidisciplinary and progressive
nature, the DSS will be of value during the initial stages of an eco-engineering project when data collection and the potential
of different eco-engineering strategies are considered. The accent of the output of the DSS is on the application of eco-engineering
strategies for slope protection as an environmentally-friendly solution aiding sustainable development. For its acceptance
within the engineering community, the DSS needs to prove its predictive capacity. Therefore, its performance has been benchmarked
against successful and unsuccessful cases of slope stabilisation using eco-engineering. The target audience and the areas
of application of this DSS are reviewed and the strategies for further development in this area suggested. 相似文献
77.
78.
To estimate static and seismic active earth pressure (Pad) on a rigid retaining wall, numerical analyses using different step sizes have been carried out in this paper, based on the
modified Culmann line method by considering Coulomb’s planar rupture surface. Equivalent pseudo-static seismic forces are
considered in the analysis. A new concept of modified unit weight by considering ground surcharge is introduced under static
and seismic conditions. By numerical analysis, area of soil (A) has been estimated to obtain the ratio of A/A0 where A0 is θh2, θ is the angle between retaining structure and ground surface and h is the vertical height of the wall. This ratio remains constant for a particular type of soil and has been used to estimate
the maximum active earth pressure using force diagram. Results are provided in tabular form for easy calculation of the coefficient
of static and seismic active earth pressure. Present results by considering the new technique, compares well with the results
obtained by earlier researchers. 相似文献
79.
Groundwater study using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in the central highlands of Eritrea 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
Remote sensing, evaluation of digital elevation models (DEM), geographic information systems (GIS) and fieldwork techniques were combined to study the groundwater conditions in Eritrea. Remote sensing data were interpreted to produce lithological and lineament maps. DEM was used for lineament and geomorphologic mapping. Field studies permitted the study of structures and correlated them with lineament interpretations. Hydrogeological setting of springs and wells were investigated in the field, from well logs and pumping test data. All thematic layers were integrated and analysed in a GIS. Results show that groundwater occurrence is controlled by lithology, structures and landforms. Highest yields occur in basaltic rocks and are due to primary and secondary porosities. High yielding wells and springs are often related to large lineaments, lineament intersections and corresponding structural features. In metamorphic and igneous intrusive rocks with rugged landforms, groundwater occurs mainly in drainage channels with valley fill deposits. Zones of very good groundwater potential are characteristic for basaltic layers overlying lateritized crystalline rocks, flat topography with dense lineaments and structurally controlled drainage channels with valley fill deposits. The overall results demonstrate that the use of remote sensing and GIS provide potentially powerful tools to study groundwater resources and design a suitable exploration plan.The online version of the original article can be found at 相似文献
80.
Although the logistics industry provides critical services to all sectors of the economy, few studies exist in economic geography that examine and explain the organizational dynamics of this industry. This article highlights the significance of the logistics industry in contemporary industrialization and argues that an enriched understanding of the interaction between technology and space can be achieved by examining the evolution of an industry that plays a central role in the contemporary economy. We focus on dimensions that are identified as particularly important: organizational, geographic, and risk and security. 相似文献