国家气象中心降水数值预报信息效益评估

以列联表形式计算熵函数，由熵函数值对国家气象中心发布的１９９６年汛期６月２２日－８月７日５次暴雨过程降水数值预报进行评估，得到５种数值预报产品给江苏省各区域的雨量预报提供了０．１８２４ｂｉｔ－０．２９１４ｂｉｔ信息等结论。     

大陆地震的动力学模型研究

应用非线性动力学模型，以大陆构造构体为参照对象，对大陆地震的成组孕育和发生过程进行模拟研究，通过对６×８弹簧－滑块－阻尼器组合单元非线性动力学模型的理论计算及其结果的分析，得到了一系列与实际地震较类似的人工地震图像，如模型中的地震活动在时间上有轮回怀，在地点上有条带性，并在不同轮回中有条过移的现象。模型中应力变化十分复杂，但仍能为预测地震提供概略性的信息。     

洪泛平原农村居民地空间分布特征定量研究及应用探讨

通过对影响居民地空间分布因素的分析,探讨了洪泛平原农村居民地空间分布特征;利用地理信息系统技术对不同高程带内居民地分布规模、等级和空间分布密度作了定量研究,得到了居民地空间分布密度和人口空间分布密度参数;并结合洪灾淹没区居民地损失的估算,对研究结果的应用作了探讨。     

辽宁水泉金矿综合信息找矿模型及预测

通过对辽宁水泉金矿的基础地质研究和综合找矿信息分析，并根据该矿区资源危机，缺乏后备金矿储备的实际情况建立了水泉金矿综合信息找矿模型。对远景成矿靶区进行了初步圈定，为详细地质勘查、扩大金矿资源提供了依据。     

THE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR SMALL TOWN (TOWNMIS)——A CASE STUDY AT XIAOLAN TOWN, SOUTH CHINA

Ｉ.ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｏｗｎｐｌａｎｎｉｎｇａｎｄｍａｎａｇｅｍｅｎｔｎｅｅｄｓｖａｒｉｏｕｓｔｏｐｏｇｒａｐｈｉｃａｌｍａｐｓ,ｃａｄａｓｔｒａｌｍａｐｓａｎｄｐｌａｎｎｉｎｇｍａｐｓ,ｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌｄａｔａａｎｄｄｙｎａｍｉｃａｌｌｙｃｏｌｌｅｃｔｉｎｇｄａｔａｔｈｒｏｕｇｈｆｉｅｌｄｓｕｒｖｅｙｉｎｇ,ｒｅｍｏｔｅｓｅｎｓｉｎｇａｎｄｏｎｔｈｅｓｐｏｔｉｎｖｅｓｔｉｇａｔｉｏｎ.ＢｅｆｏｒｅｔｈｅｒａｐｉｄｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｏｆＧＩＳｉｎｔｈｅ1980ｓ,ｈｏｗｔｏｉｍｐｏｒｔ,…     

Modelling the compliance of crustal rock—II. Response to temporal changes before earthquakes

There have been several claims that seismic shear waves respond to changes in stress before earthquakes. The companion paper develops a stress-sensitive model (APE) for the behaviour of low-porosity low-permeability crystalline rocks containing pervasive distributions of fluid-filled intergranular microcracks, and this paper uses APE to model the behaviour before earthquakes. Modelling with APE shows that the microgeometry and statistics of distributions of such fluid-filled microcracks respond almost immediately to changes in stress, and that the behaviour can be monitored by analysing seismic shear-wave splitting. The physical reasons for the coupling between shear-wave splitting and differential stress are discussed.
In this paper, we extend the model by using percolation theory to show that large crack densities are limited at the grain-scale level by the percolation threshold at which interacting crack clusters lead to pronounced increases in rock-matrix permeability. In the simplest formulation, the modelling is dimensionless and almost entirely constrained without free parameters. Nevertheless, APE modelling of the evolution of fluid-saturated rocks under stress reproduces the observed fracture criticality and the narrow range of shear-wave azimuthal anisotropy in crustal rocks. It also reproduces the behaviour of temporal variations in shear-wave splitting observed before and after the 1986, M = 6, North Palm Springs earthquake, Southern California, and several other smaller earthquakes.
The agreement of APE modelling with a wide range of observations confirms that fluid-saturated crystalline rocks are stress-sensitive and respond to changes in stress by critical fluid-rock interactions at the microscale level. This means that the effects of changes in stress and other parameters can be numerically modelled and monitored by appropriate observations of seismic shear waves.