灰色GM(1,1)模型最优维数的研究

灰色GM(1,1)模型的维数对模型的预测精度有很大的影响,本文通过自编的FORTRAN程序,在合适的范围内对GM(1,1)模型的维数进行自动优化,通过对宁波市地面沉降数据的计算分析,得到了C和P的定性关系,确定了优化的评价标准,维数最优化后的模型能反映预测数列变化幅度的大小。     

灾害预报与鸡西煤矿瓦斯爆炸事件

2002年上半年,伴随着厄尔尼诺现象的日益加剧,全球性重大自然灾害频繁发生.6月20日发生在中国黑龙江省鸡西煤矿的瓦斯爆炸事件和6月22日发生在伊朗的强烈地震,时间恰逢月亮近地潮的6月19日和太阳潮半日形变最大值的夏至的6月21日附近,是地球形变和排气较强烈的时段.据国内外有关资料,月球与地球发震有关系的重要条件是“近地点兼朔、望”以及各大行星特定位置的配合,张元东称之为“特殊天象组合期”[1];郭增建等提出,月亮赤纬角或太阳黄赤交角最大时地球形变和排气最强烈[2～5].在此期间,中国各种大的突发性灾难,如空难、海难、火车事故、矿…     

油气差异泵吸作用机理探讨——以泌阳凹陷为例

通过对泌阳凹陷油气成藏过程的系统研究,发现在差异抬升过程中,深凹源岩区抬升幅度小,凹陷四周圈闭发育区抬升幅度大,差异抬升运动导致源岩和圈闭之间的势能差急剧增大,从而促使油气大规模沿砂体向圈闭充注,这一过程类似于水泵抽水的过程,据此,文中提出了油气泵吸作用和油气差异泵吸作用的概念及机理,并以泌阳凹陷为例讨论了油气差异泵吸作用的形成条件、主要影响因素及油气差异泵吸作用对油气差异分布的控制作用。研究表明:影响油气差异泵吸作用的因素主要有势能梯度、通道质量和泵源配置及油气运移距离;泌阳凹陷油气分布总体上受成藏运聚系统的控制,在各运聚系统内油气分布受油气差异泵吸作用的控制,其中势能梯度、泵源配置及油气运移距离是影响油气差异分布的主要因素,而在每一个大泵(复合泵)内部,通道质量差异是影响油气差异分布的主要因素。     

松辽盆地南部十屋断陷古构造对营城组扇三角洲发育的控制

在恢复古构造的基础之上，对比了松辽盆地南部十屋断陷营城组沉积时期的古构造格局与现令构造格局的异同。古构造对扇三角洲沉积体系的控制作用主要表现在：(1)主要基底断裂控制了扇三角洲的展布方向；(2)倾向与物源方向相反的断层和古地貌阻滞了扇三角洲的展布；(3)沉降中心控制了扇三角洲前缘的纵向叠置和发育。     

山东惠民凹陷中央隆起带古近系沙河街组层序地层特征及控制因素研究

结合山东惠民凹陷中央隆起带古近系层序地层学研究,依据层序中湖平面变化特点和相应的沉积物特征,提出了构造运动和气候是本区层序地层发育的主要控制因素。中央隆起带古近系沙河街组二、三、四亚段可划分为 3种层序类型,即断陷初期型、强断陷期型和断陷后期型层序。由于构造运动导致湖岸线向盆地方向退缩,产生下降体系域,本次研究采用了体系域的四分法,即一个完整层序由低位、湖侵、高位和下降四个体系域组成,并且层序界面位于湖平面最大下降的位置,介于下降域和低位域之间。断陷初期红色地层层序,受气候因素控制明显,既不同于冲积地层层序,也不同于正常湖相地层层序,在层序演化上有其独特的特点。受构造作用和沉积物补给条件的影响,研究区发育三种沉积密集段,不同类型的沉积密集段在层序中所处位置不同,控制着不同的烃源岩厚度和油气资源储量。     

济阳坳陷稀土元素特征及其在物源对比中的应用

物源是控制沉积物中REE组成最主要的因素，济阳坳陷区岩石稀土元素特征表明：①济阳坳陷古生界与华北地台其他地区同时代地层岩石的REE分布特征具有极大的相似性，这体现了晚古生代济阳坳陷区所处的整个华北地台区为一稳定的克拉通沉积盆地，地层横向分布稳定，具有一致的物源和构造背景；②济阳坳陷古生界为中生界的物源，反映了济阳坳陷区由古生代稳定地台型沉积到中生代山间盆地沉积的转变，中生代洼陷区的沉积主要来自对附近凸起区古生代地层的剥蚀；③新生界样品与中生界样品的REE分布模式具有很大的相似性，从一个侧面反映了济阳坳陷中生代与新生代的构造格局的转变，中生代接受沉积的部分洼陷区至古近纪成为供给物源的凸起区。     

Microbial Degradation of Tar Oil Compounds under Different Redox Conditions

The microbial transformation of typical tar oil compounds such as acridine, benzo(b)thiophene, dibenzofuran, indane, and indene under different redox conditions was investigated in microcosm studies. Under aerobic conditions the inherent contamination in polluted soil as well as the added N‐, S‐, O‐ heterocyclic and homocyclic compounds were transformed predominantly apart from thiophene. 1‐Indanone was detected by RP‐HPLC‐DAD and GC‐MS as an intermediate metabolite from indane and indene. Under nitrate and sulfate reducing conditions indane, benzo(b)thiophene, and dibenzofuran were transformed in assays with the polluted soil samples from well B 65 and B 66 within 426 days, whereas they were persistent in assays with the highly polluted soil B 67. All heterocyclic and homocyclic compounds added to the non‐contaminated soil from well B 85 were not degraded under nitrate and sulfate reducing conditions, too. The results indicate that for the decision, wether natural attenuation can be implemented in the remediation of contaminated site, in addition to BTEX and PAHs especially the fate of further tar oil compounds in anoxic aquifers has to be considered.     

Optimization of the Sampling Technique for the Determination of Dissolved Hydrogen in Groundwater

In this study a field‐sampling technique for dissolved hydrogen (H₂) in groundwater will be presented which allows the transport of gaseous samples into the laboratory for further analysis. The method consists of transferring the headspace trapped in a gas‐sampling bulb which is continuously purged by groundwater into previously evacuated vials using a gas‐tight syringe. Three transfer steps with preceding evacuation of the vial led to a H₂‐recovery of 100 % in laboratory experiments. The method has been applied to determine H₂ concentrations in an aquifer contaminated with chlorinated solvents. Tests concerning the effect of different pumping techniques on H₂ concentrations revealed that most reliable values were obtained with a bladder pump, while an electrically driven submersible pump generated considerable amounts of hydrogen due to electrochemical interactions with the sampled water. Concentrations of dissolved hydrogen in field and laboratory samples were about two orders of magnitude higher when sampling was performed with the electrically driven submersible pump compared to sampling with the bladder pump and a peristaltic pump. Lab experiments with a Plexiglas reservoir to produce H₂‐enriched water were used to study the effect of two tubing materials (PVC, polyamide) on H₂ losses. PVC tubing turned out to allow transfer of H₂‐enriched water over 25 m without significant losses, while PA‐tubing was not suitable for sampling of H₂.     

新技术在北极星天文方位角测量中的应用

使用GPS接收机的UTC作为北极星天文方位角测量的时间比对的标准时间，利用推估UTl与UTC的差值，将时间归算到UTl的方法，可满足各等级天文方位角测量的要求，现场计算零点恒星时和北极星坐标的精度满足北极星天文方位角测量的要求，实现了现场评估测量精度。     

自适应GM(1,1)模型进行地表沉降预报

提出采用自适应GM( 1 ,1 )模型进行地表沉降预报 ,并用于兖州某矿形变控制点的沉降预报 ,效果令人满意。说明此模型具有实用价值。