北方集中供热系统气象风险评估初探

供热管网爆裂、跑冒滴漏是北方集中供热城市面临的常见问题,供热管网出现大型故障往往是在室外寒冷的隆冬时节,如果间断或限额供热时间过长,将会造成严重的社会和经济影响。同时在极端低温情况下,可能会造成热源供应不足,出现限额供热现象,不能保证室内舒适度,影响人们的正常生活。本文提出了能源供应气象风险评估和热网维修寒冷风险评估方法,并进行了案例评估,以期为未来进行相关风险评估提供参考。     

遵义市袋栽黑木耳最佳栽培期气候条件分析*

为了找出黑木耳在遵义的最佳栽培期,2019年笔者在遵义市气象观测站开展试验,收集并整理黑木耳生长期内逐日气象资料,结合试验数据综合分析,结果显示：（1）平均气温在20℃左右时,对木耳品质形成较为有利,候平均气温＜5℃或≥30℃时不适宜黑木耳生长。（2）除盛夏和初秋相对湿度较低外,其余大部分时段均能满足木耳自然生长,少部分时段需适当浇水。（3）3月至10月候日照时数普遍在10小时以上,适宜黑木耳生长,其中4月4候至9月4候为最适宜期。（4）遵义立体气候特征明显,海拔高度不同木耳适宜生长期时段不同,大部分地区海拔普遍在600～1100米之间,黑木耳生长最佳适宜期为4月3候至6月6候、8月6候至10月5候。     

Geoarchaeological evidence on a Late Bronze Age earthquake,Ohrid Basin (North Macedonia)

Geoarchaeological investigations on the northeastern shore of Lake Ohrid revealed 3.5 m thick deepwater lacustrine sediments overlying terrestrial vegetation macrofossils, worked wood and abundant potsherds dated to the Late Bronze Age (LBA). Distinct contact of deepwater sediment with the sub-aerial weathered limestone bedrock point to a sudden increase in lake level. According to radiocarbon data, catastrophic flooding occurred shortly after 1214 yr bc. Because the area is located in a highly active seismic zone, we propose that this event was caused by tectonically induced, metre-scale coseismic subsidence related to faults bordering the Ohrid alluvial plain. Moreover, this event coincides well with a dramatic switch in the habitation and settlement strategy in the region. More important, however, is the finding that the age of the proposed massive tectonic event and change in habitation lies within the interval of the proposed ‘earthquake storm’ in the eastern Mediterranean dated to 1225–1175 bc. As the Ohrid-Korça zone belongs to the same tectonic province, a relationship between the abovementioned earthquakes and the proposed event can be expected. This research therefore might provide the first direct evidence of a large-scale earthquake event linkable to the LBA collapse of Europe's first urban civilisation in the Aegean.     

Sedimentology and sequence stratigraphy of the mixed clastic-carbonate deposits in the Late Paleozoic icehouse period: A case study from the northern Qaidam Basin

The widely-developed, mixed clastic-carbonate succession in the northern Qaidam Basin records the paleo-environment changes under the glacial activity during the Late Paleozoic icehouse period in the context of regional tectonic stability, however, the depositional environment and sequence stratigraphy characteristics of the mixed deposits is rarely reported and still not clear. Combined the latest drilling wells data, we analyzed the sedimentary and stratigraphic characterization of the mixed strata via detailed field outcrops and core observations and thin section microscopic observations and recognized three depositional systems, including progradational coastal system, incised valley system, and carbonate-dominated marine shelf system, and identified four third-order sequences, SQ1, SQ2, SQ3 and SQ4, consisting of LST, TST, and HST. The depositional environment is overall belonged to marine-continental transition context and shifted from marine to continental environment frequently, showing an evolutionary pattern from marine towards terrestrial-marine transition and then back into the marine environment again in the long-term, which was controlled by the regional tectonic subsidence and the high-frequency and large-amplitude sea-level changes due to the Late Paleozoic glacial activity. The result is of significance in understanding the evolution of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the sedimentation-climate response.©2021 China Geology Editorial Office.     

1960—2017年沈阳地区春播期降水变化特征

基于1960—2017年沈阳市5个气象观测站4—5月降水量资料,采用线性趋势法和累积距平分析了沈阳市春播期(4—5月)降水量演变特征,并分析首场透雨及最大连续无有效降水日数演变特征及对春播期降水量影响,对春播期降水量资源变化特征进行相关分析。结果表明:近58a沈阳春播期降水量整体呈现弱的增加趋势,平均每10a增加3.1mm,2004年开始降水量迅速增加,且波动性较大,降水量异常偏多或偏少年份较多,易诱发春旱春涝事件。春播期首场透雨出现日期平均每10a偏晚0.051d,首场透雨日期偏晚,将导致春播期前期雨水条件不足,引起土壤干旱,不利于春播开展。最大连续无有效降水日数呈波动性增加趋势,平均每10a增加0.56d,对4月降水量影响较大,虽然春播期降水资源总量增加,但存在降水资源时间分配不均的问题,且长时间无有效降水事件频发,将导致春播期干旱灾害事件发生风险加大,导致适播期延后。     

气温变化对西峰黄土高原地温与梨树发育期的影响

用西北地区140站1961-2000年的气温资料和西峰黄土高原1971-2005年5,10,15,20cm地温和1984-2005年梨树发育期资料,分析了西北地区春季、夏季、秋季、冬季和年气温的变化事实,再用相关计算和典型年份对比,分析了地温的时间变化规律及其对梨树发育期的影响。结果表明,西北地区20世纪60年代冬季增温,其余降温,70年代均降温,80年代冬季增温,其余降温,90年代均增温,冬季的最明显。西峰10cm地温各季节呈持续升高的趋势,春季增温最明显为0.058℃/a,变幅也最大,冬季增温幅度次之为0.039℃/a,再是秋季为0.032℃/a,夏季增温幅度最小为0.029℃/a,上升趋势均通过0.05和0.01的信度检验。冬季、春季地温与梨树的各发育期均为负相关,即地温高,发育期早,地温低,发育期迟。冬季地温与梨树发育期相关最显著的是叶变始期和开花始期,相关系数为-0.41～-0.52,信度为0.05,春季地温与之相关最显著的是开花始期,相关系数为-0.68～-0.69,信度达0.001。春季地温对梨树发育期的影响具有明显的持续性和滞后性,冬季地温对梨树发育期影响有阶段性,春季地温对梨树发育期的影响比冬季的明显。     

1951—2018年衢州市椪柑采摘期连阴雨天气变化特征

基于1951—2018年衢州市椪柑采摘期降水量、雨日、日照时数、相对湿度等逐日气象资料,应用统计分析和小波分析方法,分析椪柑采摘期连阴雨天气变化特征及其大气环流背景.结果表明:1951—2018年衢州椪柑采摘期连阴雨日数、次数和强度呈略微增加趋势、滑动3d无雨次数呈减少趋势;滑动3d无雨次数存在明显的5a、7a和15a...     

1961—2017年北疆初终霜日及霜期时空变化特征

利用1961—2017年北疆37个地面气象站逐日最低气温观测资料,结合常规气象统计方法,分析北疆地区初、终霜日和霜期的时空演变特征.结果表明:(1)北疆平均初霜日以2.2 d·(10a)-1速率推迟;平均终霜日以1.7 d·(10a)-1速率提前;平均霜期以3.9 d·(10a)-1速率缩短;初、终霜日和霜期的主周期均...     

Large-scale dune erosion tests to study the influence of wave periods

Large-scale physical model tests were performed to quantify the effects of the wave period on dune erosion. Attention was focussed on 2D cross-shore effects in a situation with sandy dunes and extreme water levels and wave conditions. Besides profile measurements, detailed measurements in time and space of water pressure, flow velocities and sediment concentrations were performed in the near near-shore area. It was concluded that a longer wave period leads to a larger dune erosion volume and to a larger landward retreat of the dune face. Tests with double-peaked wave spectra showed that the influence of the spectral shape on dune erosion was best represented by the T_m − 1,0 spectral mean wave period, better than the peak wave period, T_p. The effect of the wave period on dune erosion was implemented in a dune erosion prediction method that estimates erosion volumes during normative storm conditions for the Dutch coast. More details of the measurements and additional analyses of physical processes are described in an accompanying paper by Van Thiel de Vries et al. [Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M., van Gent, M.R.A., Reniers, A.J.H.M. and Walstra, D.J.R., submitted for publication. Analysis of dune erosion processes in large scale flume experiments, In this volume of Coastal Engineering.].     

汕尾风暴潮频率与海堤改造初探

通过研究1970-2005年间汕尾港遭受风暴潮袭击的程度,对汕尾港风暴潮增水情况进行分析,用Pearson-Ⅲ分布和Gumbel分布两种概率统计方法分别对汕尾港不同重现期潮位值进行推算,并以此为基础结合走访相关单位和实地踏勘收集汕尾海堤历史和现状资料、风暴潮频率和海平面变化情况等,运用海堤工程设计防潮相关标准探讨汕尾已建海堤存在的问题,并针对性地提出改造建议,为汕尾市海堤的修复加固和管理提供参考.