GALILEO系统局域完备性监测设计与实现

根据GALILEO系统局域完备性概念和网络RTK的基本理论,建立导航系统局域网络完备性监测理论和算法。算法主要包括网络系统完备性算法和用户完备性算法,内容包括网络误差模型的建立、插值算法的选择、误差改正数完备性指标的计算、完备性指标的验证和用户保护水平的计算等。仿真结果表明,采用网络RTK技术和完备性监测算法,飞机的平面保护水平和垂直保护水平均小于完备性告警门限值,可以满足飞机Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类精密进近的完备性要求,为卫星导航系统在民航中的应用提供完备性理论基础。     

大连滨海湿地景观格局变化及其驱动机制

以2000年和2006年TM卫星影像为主要数据源,配合其它非遥感数据,在遥感与地理信息系统技术支持下,运用景观生态学原理,选取反映景观空间结构和景观异质性的指数,对大连地区湿地的整体景观格局和类型景观格局及其动态变化进行定量分析.结果表明:6年间,大连湿地面积减少了97.62 km2;整体景观多样性指数和均匀度指数降低,优势度指数增加;各类景观格局时间序列上也存在明显差异性变化.湿地景观格局指数的变化, 反映了移山填海工业园区的扩大及养殖业的大力发展等人为活动对景观格局的深刻影响.人为活动已成为大连市湿地景观格局变化的主要驱动因子.     

Modified Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Dynamic Data Integration Using Streamline Approach

In this paper, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is used for sampling of the permeability field conditioned on the dynamic data. The novelty of the approach consists of using an approximation of the dynamic data based on streamline computations. The simulations using the streamline approach allows us to obtain analytical approximations in the small neighborhood of the previously computed dynamic data. Using this approximation, we employ a two-stage MCMC approach. In the first stage, the approximation of the dynamic data is used to modify the instrumental proposal distribution. The obtained chain correctly samples from the posterior distribution; the modified Markov chain converges to a steady state corresponding to the posterior distribution. Moreover, this approximation increases the acceptance rate, and reduces the computational time required for MCMC sampling. Numerical results are presented.     

形变,应变短临前兆标志体系

建立各手段的前兆异常标志,从而组合各类前兆标志体系是“八五”地震短临预报攻关研究项目的重要目标之一。本文以形变,应变手段的主要研究对象,初步建立了一个形变应变短临前兆标志体系,并总结出了各种异常的判别标志,为利用系统优化理论和专家系统理论进一步研究形变应前兆系统和地震之间的关系,从而为提高中短期地震预报的水平打下了一定的基础。     

地震学定量预报指标的一种提取方法——对比筛选法

鉴于目前地震学综合定量预报指标的缺乏和预报工作的急需,尝试使用“对比筛选法(简称CSM方法)”进行地震学定量预报指标的提取试验。较之以往作法的进展在于:1.同时使用“有震”和“无震”两类样本对比筛选;2.对不同地区的地震学参数进行了归一化处理。这样做的显著优点是:1.可以较有效地提取“有震异常”和“正常变化”指标;2.提取的异常和预报指标具有定量化和普适性特点。 试验研究使用大华北地震区资料,研究对象取中强地震。经内符和外推检验,证明该方法提取的异常和预报指标有效性和实用性较高。     

Modelling of the vertical fluxes of nitric acid,ammonia, and ammonium nitrate

Results from numerical investigations regarding the exchange of HNO₃, NH₃, and NH₄NO₃ between the atmosphere and the biosphere are presented. The investigations were performed with a modified inferential method which is based on the generally accepted micrometeorological ideas of the transfer of momentum, sensible heat and matter near the Earth's surface and the chemical reactions among these nitrogen compounds. This modified inferential method calculates the micrometeorological quantities (such as the friction velocity and the fluxes of sensible and latent heat), the height-invariant fluxes of the composed chemically conservative trace species with group concentrationsc ₁=[HNO₃]+[NH₄NO₃] (total nitrate),c ₂=[NH₃]+[NH₄NO₃] (total ammonia), andc ₃=[HNO₃]-[NH₃] as well as the fluxes of the individual nitrogen compounds. The parameterization of the fluxes is based on the flux-gradient relationships in the turbulent region of the atmospheric surface layer. The modified inferential method requires only the data of wind velocity, temperature, humidity and concentrations (HNO₃, NH₃, and NH₄NO₃) measured at a reference height by stations of a monitoring network.     

Effects of onshore and offshore topography on sea breeze circulation: An observational study at eastern Attica,Greece

Field measurements of wind, air temperature and humidity were taken at the eastern part of the Attika district in June 1991, to examine the topographic influences exerted on the local sea breezes. These influences are due either to the elongated Evia island, faced by the northern half of Attica coastline some tens of kilometers offshore, or to the coast-parallel range of Hymettos mountain, rising steeply 12 km onshore. The instrumentation consisted mainly of three tethered meteorological balloons released at characteristic sires (i.e., the coast, a location between shoreline and mountain foot and the mountain top) and three autographic ground-based anemometers operating at selected locations. Data from the ground-based and upper air stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, as well as the diurnal weather maps were also obtained and analyzed. Observations were made under different synoptic wind and the latter was found to determine remarkably the significance of the topographic effects. A preliminary two-dimensional numerical approach was also made concerning the sea breeze capability to reach the Hymettos mountain top in the case of a weak opposing geostrophic flow.     

杠杆点评估及设计空间抗差

本分析了杠杆点的几何含义和统计特征,从杠杆点的保差性,矩阵的摄动和参数估值可靠性的观点出发讨论了杠杆点的不利和有利的两个方面,提出了一个全面的设计空间抗差方案。     

地震前兆含义,科学问题与研究途径的研讨

地震前兆的研究已经取得了很大的进展,地震前兆的复杂性引起了广泛的关注,对地震预报、有关科学问题和探索途径的研究现状及其前景有各种评价。文章认为由于一些科学问题没有解决,尽管对中缅边境１９９５年７月连７．３级地震作出了成功预报,经验性预报有一定的局限性,文中讨论了广义地震前兆和狭义地震前兆,广义地震前兆包含二类前兆：场兆和源兆;而狭义前兆仅指后者。大陆震例前兆的系统研究证实了广义地震前兆的存在,然而     

新疆第三次荒漠化监测中的问题及其建议

回顾了新疆3次在荒漠化监测中所进行的荒漠化监测与评价指标体系的建立，也是新疆开展荒漠化监测的基础；介绍了以遥感与地理信息为主要技术的荒漠化监测评价的方法；阐述了新疆第三次荒漠化监测中存在的问题。指出目前新疆荒漠化评价存在的主要问题是评价指标的不确定性、评价指标体系的难操作性和遥感数据源选用的随机性，进而对上述问题的解决途径进行了讨论。