This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River. Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal changes from 1957 to 2002. The main findings are as follows: (1) The annual runoff processes of the three headwaters of the Tarim River are complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics. (2) The correlation dimensions of attractor derived from the time series of the annual runoff for the Hotan, Yarkand and Aksu rivers are all greater than 3.0 and non-integral, implying that all three rivers are chaotic dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions, and the dynamic modeling of their annual runoff process requires at least four independent variables. (3) The time series of annual runoff in each river presents a long-term correlation characteristic. The Hurst exponent for the period of 1989 to 2002 suggests that we may expect to see an increasing trend in the annual runoff of the Aksu and Yarkand rivers in the years after 2002, but a decreasing tendency for the Hotan River in the same period. 相似文献
This paper assesses the various factors contributing to climate change in the region of the Kashafroud G-WADI Basin in Iran; quantifies
the local impacts of climate change, especially local water scarcity; and simulates and discusses several proposed methods to
combat these impacts. Hydrologic and climatic data are statistically analyzed and VENSIM modeling is used for various simulations
of water resources in the basin. Results show that the natural climate changes affecting Kashafroud Basin include increased temperature,
less rainfall, more frequent droughts, and changes in rainfall patterns, all of which are local symptoms of climate change in recent
years. However, the most important challenge in the basin is the overexploitation of surface and groundwater resources to meet the
growing water demands, especially domestic needs. Changes in land use, reallocation of water uses, groundwater depletion, and degradation
of the quality of surface waters have all contributed to significant changes in the environmental features of this basin, and are
the main reason why water demands now exceed the renewal capacity of the basin. Proposed response measures include reallocation
of resources among different uses, inter-basin water transfers, drawing water from six small dams on the Kashafroud River, reducing
groundwater extraction, and replacing groundwater extraction for agriculture by reuse of urban wastewater. This study concludes that
although changes in global climatic parameters have altered environmental features in the basin, local factors, such as water utilization
beyond the renewable capacity of the basin, are more significant in worsening the impacts of climate change. 相似文献