Reflections on the current state of global climate response

What is the significance of the 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali? The formal outcomes, especially the ‘Bali Action Plan’, are described and commented on, along with the challenges for negotiating a post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen during 2008 and 2009. The article concludes that the outcome of the Bali meeting is insufficient when compared to the nature of the challenge posed by climate change. However, it can nevertheless be considered a success in terms of ‘Realpolitik’ in paving the way for the negotiations ahead, because some real changes have been discerned in the political landscape. The challenges for the road towards Copenhagen are manifold: the sheer volume and complexity of the issues and the far-reaching nature of decisions such as differentiation between non- Annex I countries pose significant challenges in themselves, while the dependency on the electoral process in the USA introduces a high element of risk into the whole process. The emergence of social justice as an issue turns climate policy into an endeavour to improve the world at large—thereby adding to the complexity. And, finally, the biggest challenge is the recognition that the climate problem requires a global solution, that Annex I and non-Annex I countries are mutually dependent on each other and that only cooperation regarding technology in combination with significant financial support will provide the chance to successfully tackle climate change.     

Climate negotiations beyond Kyoto: developing countries concerns and interests

Abstract

Five years down the road from Kyoto, the Protocol that bears that city's name still awaits enough qualifying ratifications to come into force. While attention has been understandably focussed on the ratification process, it is time to begin thinking about the next steps for the global climate regime, particularly in terms of a deeper inclusion of developing countries' concerns and interests. This paper begins doing so from the perspective of the developing countries. The principal argument is that we need to return to the basic principles outlined in the Framework Convention on Climate Change in searching for a north—south bargain on climate change. Such a bargain may be achievable if we can realign the policy architecture of the climate regime to its original stated goals of sustainable development.     

Economics of climate change: risk and responsibility by world region

The impacts of predicted climate change will not be distributed evenly around the world. As post-Kyoto negotiations unfold, relating the geographical distribution of projected impacts to responsibility for emissions among world regions is essential for achieving an equitable path forward. This article surveys the current knowledge of regional climate consequences, and delves into the regional predictions of economic assessment models to date, examining how the uncertainties, assumptions and ethical dimensions influence the portrayal of risk at this scale. The few studies that quantitatively compared regional risk and responsibility are reviewed, and the analytical framework from one such study is applied to the 2006 Stern Review's projections to give the first regional comparison to take purchasing power and welfare considerations into account. Synthesizing burden and blame in this way is informative for policy makers; the world's most vulnerable communities—in Africa, the Indian subcontinent, Latin America, and small island states—accounted for less than 33% of global greenhouse gas emissions over the period 1961–2000, but may experience more than 75% of the ensuing climate damages this century. This analysis reinforces the call for industrialized nations to lead mitigation efforts, and to do so decisively and swiftly.     

1957—2007年雅鲁藏布江中游河谷降水变化的小波分析

通过对近51 a雅鲁藏布江中游河谷地区4个气象站逐日降水资料进行等权平均取值,采用气候倾向率和小波分析法,研究了不同时间尺度下近51 a降水变化趋势及周期特征。结果表明:研究区降水量以20世纪80年代为最少,2000年后年降水量与20世纪90年代和60年代基本持平。夏季和秋季降水量年代际变化与年降水量的变化基本一致。近51 a降水量增加趋势不显著。年降水量存在准3 a、8—11 a和30 a的周期,以准11 a周期最为突出。降水量变化以春季增长趋势最显著,可在干旱季补充土壤水分,减轻风沙化土地的发生发展。秋季和冬季增长趋势不明显,夏季降水量呈减小趋势。就季节降水变化的时间尺度和周期性而言,2007年后四季降水表现为,春季在20—30 a时间尺度上将处于偏高期,夏季在8—12 a时间尺度上将处于偏低期,秋季在8—12 a时间尺度上将处于偏低期,冬季在20—30 a时间尺度上将出现向降水偏高的过渡期。     

Discovery of six high-redshift quasars with the Lijiang 2.4 m telescope and the Multiple Mirror Telescope

Quasars with redshifts greater than 4 are rare, and can be used to probe the structure and evolution of the early universe. Here we report the discovery of six new quasars with i-band magnitudes brighter than 19.5 and redshifts between 2.4 and 4.6 from spectroscopy with the Yunnan Faint Object Spectrograph and Camera (YFOSC) at the Lijiang 2.4 m telescope in February, 2012. These quasars are in the list of z > 3.6 quasar candidates selected by using our proposed J K/i Y criterion and the photometric redshift estimations from the SDSS optical and UKIDSS near-IR photometric data. Nine candidates were observed by YFOSC, and five among six new quasars were identified as z > 3.6 quasars. One of the other three objects was identified as a star and the other two were unidentified due to the lower signal-to-noise ratio of their spectra. This is the first time that z > 4 quasars have been discovered using a telescope in China. Thanks to the Chinese Telescope Access Program (TAP), the redshift of 4.6 for one of these quasars was confirmed by the Multiple Mirror Telescope (MMT) Red Channel spectroscopy. The continuum and emission line properties of these six quasars, as well as their central black hole masses and Eddington ratios, were obtained.     

雅鲁藏布江丰水期河水离子组成特征及其控制因素

为了解雅鲁藏布江丰水期河水离子组成特征及其控制因素,利用2015年采集的8个河水水样,运用数理统计、聚类分析、Piper三线图、Gibbs模型以及离子比值等方法,分析了雅鲁藏布江丰水期河水水化学特征,并探讨了其主要控制因素。结果表明：河水中阳离子以Ca²⁺、Mg²⁺为主,阴离子则以HCO₃^-和SO₄^2-为主,阴、阳离子分别约占其总量的96%和85%。河水水化学类型均为HCO₃·SO₄-Ca·Mg型。TDS含量介于202.46~371.27 mg·L^-1,均值为299.30 mg·L^-1,较世界河流平均值高。自上至下,河水水化学特征表现出一定的差异性,河水中主要离子以及TDS、TH、EC的含量沿程表现出下降的趋势,其原因主要有支流河水汇入和降水增加的稀释作用。河水水样均落在Gibbs模型图中部偏左,表明河水中主要离子化学组分主要受水岩作用控制。离子比值法分析表明研究区碳酸盐岩以及蒸发岩的风化溶解是河水水化学的主要控制因素,且存在硅酸盐类矿物的风化。