Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Deep seismic reflection study over the Vindhyans of Rajasthan: Implications for geophysical setting of the basin

This paper presents results of high-resolution deep seismic reflection profiling of the Proterozoic Vindhyan basin of the Rajasthan area along the Chandli-Bundi-Kota-Kunjer profile. Seismic images have been used to estimate the thickness of Vindhyan strata as well as to understand the tectonic framework of the basin. The results are constrained by gravity, magnetic and magnetotelluric data. The study reveals gentle SE-dipping reflection bands representing the Vindhyan strata. The seismic sections depict gradual thickening of the Vindhyan succession towards southeast from Bundi. The velocities of the upper and lower Vindhyans are identified as 4.6-4.8 km/s and 5.1-5.3 km/s. The NW limit of the Vindhyan basin is demarcated by the Great Boundary Fault (GBF) that manifests as a 30 km wide NW dipping thrust fault extending to a depth of 30 km.     

吉林伊通盆地莫里青断陷古近系双阳组储集层成岩作用研究

古近系双阳组是在吉林省伊通盆地莫里青断陷中，油气赋存的主要层位,储层主要为湖底扇和扇三角洲的砂体。依据双阳组储层的大量薄片、扫描电镜、粘土矿物分析的资料研究了该储集层的成岩作用。研究结果表明双阳组储集层：成岩作用经历了压实、压溶、胶结、交代和溶解6方面的作用。双储集层中的自生粘土矿物蒙皂石向伊利石转化具有明显的特征：主要演化过程经历了蒙皂石渐变带，第一迅速转化带和第二迅速转化带，相应的成岩作用阶段可划分为早成岩阶段B期、晚成岩阶段A1期和晚成岩阶段A2期。依据在垂向上的成岩变化,建立了莫里青断陷双阳组储集层的成岩作用演化序列。在垂向上成岩作用的类型和强度均存在明显的差异，造成了储层物性的垂向分带。     

Effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship

The power-law exponent (n) in the equation: D=cL ⁿ , with D = maximum displacement and L = fault length, would be affected by deviations of fault trace length. (1) Assuming n=1, numerical simulations on the effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship are done in this paper. The results show that: (a) uniform relative deviations, which means all faults within a dataset have the same relative deviation, do not affect the value of n; (b) deviations of the fault length due to unresolved fault tip decrease the values of n and the deviations of n increase with the increasing length deviations; (c) fault linkage and observed dimensions either increase or decrease the value of n depending on the distribution of deviations within a dataset; (d) mixed deviations of the fault lengths are either negative or positive and cause the values of n to either decrease or increase; (e) a dataset combined from two or more datasets with different values of c and orders of magnitude also cause the values of n to deviate. (2) Data including 19 datasets and spanning more than eight orders of fault length magnitudes (10⁻²–10⁵ m) collected from the published literature indicate that the values of n range from 0.55 to 1.5, the average value being 1.0813, and the peak value of n _d (double regression) is 1.0–1.1. Based on above results from the simulations and published data, we propose that the relationship between the maximum displacement and fault length in a single tectonic environment with uniform mechanical properties is linear, and the value of n deviated from 1 is mainly caused by the sampling and linkage effects.     

西藏俄卡地银多金属异常区地球化学

异常形态、分布严格受推覆断裂控制,范围大、浓集中心明显,浓度变化及因子载荷表明。区内找Ag、Pb有利,而Sb又为其最佳指示元素。     

库车坳陷下侏罗统沉积特征及砂体展布

库车坳陷位于塔里木盆地北部，北缘是南天山山前断裂带，南缘是塔北隆起，呈NEE向展布，东西长250km，南北宽20－60km，面积约21170km^2。下侏罗统自下而上发育阿合组、阳霞组。对吐格尔明、克孜勒努尔、库车河剖面及依南2井岩芯观察发现，阿合组和阳霞组按其岩性特征均可以划分为5个岩性段，各个岩性段在全具有对比性。还可分出4类和17个亚类岩相。阿合组细砂岩以上的粗碎屑岩含量为80％以上；阳霞组细砂岩以上的碎屑岩含量为50％－60％。砂岩厚度占总地层厚度的50％－60％以上，是油气勘探的重要目的层系。以吐格尔明剖面为代表的依南2井以东地区的阿合组和阳霞组岩矿特征基本相似，以克孜勒努尔地区为代表的依南2井以西地区有较大差异，即阳霞组长石含量几乎为零。两区共同点是以岩屑砂岩为主，成分成熟度低，结构成熟度中等，岩屑含量较高。从岩性组合、沉积构造、微观岩石成分、结构和砂体形态等方面的综合分析认为，辫状三角洲沉积体系是该区阿合组和阳霞组的主要沉积体系。阿合组砂体纵向上以多个辫状三角洲平原上的辫状分流河道砂岩加积复合为主，横向上指状镶嵌叠置呈东西向展布。阳霞组第3岩性段砂体纵向上以多个辫状三角洲前缘上的水下辫状分流河道砂岩加积复合为主，横向上指状镶嵌叠置也呈东西向展布。第2、4、5岩性段砂体以河道滞流砂岩侧砂为主，横向叠瓦状叠置呈东西向展布。     

山东车镇凹陷东部古近系沙河街组成岩作用

车镇凹陷沙河街组的沉积体系受控于盆地内的构造、物源供给以及沉积时的气候环境。以岩石学特征为基础，描述了成岩过程中压实与压溶作用、胶结作用、溶解作用与次生孔隙的特征，以及次生孔隙带在本区的分布。论述了碳酸盐胶结物与粘土矿物胶结作用的特点。粘土矿物蒙脱石-伊利石转变具有明显的渐变与突变交替的演化程式，其演化经历了蒙脱石带、渐变带、迅速转化带和伊利石带以及蒙脱石向伊利石的转变带。沙河街组的成岩作用划分为早期成岩阶段（A期、B期）和晚期成岩阶段（A期、B期、C期），并提出了成岩阶段的划分标志。     

Impact of Southern Oscillation on the Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the Bay of Bengal

The impact of Southern Oscillation on thecyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringthe summer monsoon has been investigated.The analysis of correlation coefficients(CCs) between the frequency of monsoondepressions and the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI) reveals that more depressionsform during July and August of El Niñoyears. Due to this, the seasonal frequencyof monsoon depressions remains little higherduring El Niño epochs even though thecorrelations for June and September are notsignificant. The CCs for July and August aresignificant at the 99% level.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)is known to affect Indian MonsoonRainfall (IMR) adversely. The enhancedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringJuly and August is an impact of ENSO whichneeds to be examined closely. Increasedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal may bereducing the deficiency in IMR duringEl Niño years by producing more rainfallover the eastern parts of India duringJuly and August. Thus there is a considerablespatial variation in the impact of ENSOon the monsoon rainfall over India and El Niñoneed not necessarily imply a monsoonfailure everywhere in India.The area of formation of monsoon depressionsshifts eastward during El Niño years.Warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaliesprevail over northwest and adjoiningwestcentral Bay of Bengal during premonsoon andmonsoon seasons of El Niño years.May minus March SOI can provide useful predictionsof monsoon depression frequencyduring July and August.