气候变化对澜湄流域上下游水资源合作潜力的影响

澜沧江-湄公河（澜湄）流域南北跨越了25个纬度,流域上下游气候差异明显。同时遭遇干旱或湿润通常不利于上下游水资源合作,而水文气象条件正常或上下游间的干湿条件不一样时有利于缓解流域内的竞争性用水状况。为探究气候变化对澜湄流域上下游水资源合作潜力的影响,基于普林斯顿降水数据集与全球气候模型预估数据,利用标准化降水指数（SPI）和Copula函数计算了历史时期（1985—2016年）与未来时期（2021—2090年）澜湄流域上下游同时面临干旱、湿润以及干湿存在差异的发生概率。基于典型浓度路径RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景的预估结果显示与历史时期相比,未来时期澜湄流域在RCP4.5与RCP8.5情景下具有相似的变化趋势,即：遭遇同期湿润的概率在逐渐增大（最大达到199.5%),遭遇同期干旱的概率则在逐渐减少(最小达到-35.9%),而遭遇干湿差异时期的概率在所有时段均大幅减少（-53.1%~-42.5%)。未来澜湄流域上下游同期湿润概率的增加和遭遇干湿差异概率的减少预计将加大上下游面临水资源竞争的可能性,从而对澜湄流域各国家之间的水资源合作产生不利影响。这一研究可以为澜湄流域水资源合作策略的制定提供科学参考和依据。     

1960—2018年辽河流域日降水集中程度分析

基于1960-2018年的日降水资料,计算辽河流域降水集中指数（CI）,分析日降水集中程度的时空特征。结果表明：降水集中指数CI可以有效描述辽河流域降水集中程度,辽河流域年CI指数平均为0.67,降水集中程度总体呈现出东部和西部低、南部和北部高的鞍型空间分布特征;夏季降水集中程度最高,各站点季平均CI指数为0.65,空间分布与年分布较一致,冬季平均CI指数最低,为0.60,由东南向西北递减;研究时段内年CI指数表现为不显著的减小趋势,其中东部区域减小的趋势最大;各子区域年CI指数平均变化周期为3 a左右,其中1985年以前,变化周期较短,在2 a左右,1985年以后,变化周期超过3 a。     

黄河中游夏季降水异常的先兆特征和预测方法

本文利用黄河中游61站降水资料,分析了其变化规律和同期及前期环境场特征,并建立了夏季降水预测模型。研究发现：黄河中游夏季降水具有显著的年际变化特征,显著周期在3年左右;黄河中游夏季降水主要受到同期东亚高空急流、西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)以及贝加尔湖附近低槽的影响,当急流和副高偏强（弱）偏北（南）、贝加尔湖附近高度场偏低（高）时,黄河中游降水偏多（少）。另外,前期秋季南方涛动指数、北非副热带高压（20°W~60°E）、南海副热带高压（100°~120°E）、北半球副高强度及北半球极涡强度发生异常时,对夏季环流产生影响,从而影响黄河中游夏季降水,据此,建立预测模型。评估发现该模型具有较强的预测能力,可用于黄河中游夏季降水的定量预测。     

应用MJO制作长江流域月降水预测的试验研究

用MJO指数RMM1、RMM2、振幅 1—25日平均代替月平均,用上月月平均RMM1和RMM2、振幅构造为右场,下月长江流域降水场为左场,SVD分析两场的关联,借助最优化技术,在降水场预测距平与实况距平同号总站数最大意义下确定系数,建立估计公式,由右场时间系数估计左场时间系数,最后反演降水场。尽管多数的月第一模态相关并不显著,但实际预测效果较好。     

干、湿环境下中尺度对流系统发生的环流背景和地面特征分析

对2007～2010 年暖季(6～9 月)发生在江淮和黄淮流域46 个对流天气过程的环流背景和地面特征进行了统计研究。根据整层可降水量小于或大于等于50 mm 将这些个例发生的环境分成干环境(10 个个例)和湿环境(36 个个例)。干环境下发生强对流的天气形势可以分为槽后型和副高边缘型,湿环境下的天气形势可分为槽前型、副高边缘型和槽后型,湿环境下有明显的暖湿区配合。湿环境下槽前型发生的概率最高,地面系统较为复杂,有静止锋、倒槽、冷锋和暖锋,而干环境下在本研究的个例中无槽前型发生。干、湿环境下副高边缘型的对流,从地面到500 hPa 都发生在副高后部的“S”流型的拐弯处,但部分湿环境个例低层有切变线。干环境下槽后型的发生概率较高,而湿环境下发生概率则相对较少。由这些研究表明,干、湿环境下强对流系统的触发和维持机制存在明显的差异。     

Seasonal inundation patterns in two large savanna floodplains of South America: the Llanos de Moxos (Bolivia) and the Llanos del Orinoco (Venezuela and Colombia)

Inundation patterns in two of the largest savanna floodplains of South America were studied by analysis of the 37‐GHz polarization difference observed by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (Nimbus‐7 satellite). Flooded area was estimated at monthly intervals for January 1979 through to August 1987 using mixing models that account for the major landscape units with distinctive microwave emission characteristics. Results are presented separately for five subregions in each of the two floodplain regions to show the spatial as well as temporal variability in inundation patterns. The total area inundated during the 9 years varied between 2069 and 78 460 km² in the Llanos de Moxos (also spelled as Mojos; median area, 23 383 km²) and 1278 and 105 454 km² in the Llanos del Orinoco (median, 25 374 km²), not including the open‐water area of permanent lakes and river channels. The correlation between flooded area and river stage was used to extend the inundation records over a 30‐year period in the Moxos (1967–97) and a 58‐year period (1927–85) in the Orinoco. Interannual variability in inundation is greater in the Moxos than the Orinoco. Comparison of these data, however, with a previously published analysis of the Pantanal wetland shows that inundation patterns in these two floodplain regions are not as variable across years as they are in the Pantanal. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Problems of the aquatic environment and countermeasures in the rapid economic development in the Zhujiang River Delta

The Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta is the rapid economic development region in China since the opening and reform door policy was carried out in 1978. Being the rapid development of industry and city, the impact on the aquatic environmental quality was significant. The pollution caused the water quality descended and the ecological system degraded, and also impeded the economic development. The characteristics and problems of the aquatic environment are: the capacity of aquatic environment is large but hasn’t been utilized rationally, the water quality is influenced by saline sea water and tide current, the main pollutants are organic matter and the pollution is going heavier, the concentration of pollutants change seasonally. The countermeasures of aquatic environmental protection are: carrying out the environmental functional regionalization and controlling the total amount of pollutant discharge, revising the industrial structure and making a rational industrial arrangement, raising the rate of waste water treatment and making a full assessment of the water conservancy project.     

Flood magnification on the River Rhine

Flooding on the German Rhine during the 20th century was tested for trends and assessed to identify causal mechanisms driving worsening of flooding. A review of previous research outlines the range of impacts due to climate change, land‐use shifts, and river regulation. Analysis of hydrologic data, especially of the long record at Cologne, documents statistically significant increases in both flood magnitudes and frequencies. Specific‐gauge analysis, which isolates the effects of channel modification, documents that 20th century river engineering has caused little of the observed increase in flooding on the German Rhine. Precipitation records from the Rhine basin confirm that flood magnification has been driven by upstream factors, including an increase in flood‐producing precipitation of roughly 25% during the past 100 years and increases in runoff yields. In addition, agricultural land‐use records suggest that flood magnification can be partially explained by 20th century trends documenting intensification and industrialization of German agriculture. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short‐term spatial and temporal patterns of suspended sediment transfer in proglacial channels,small River Glacier,Canada

Alpine glacial basins are a significant source and storage area for sediment exposed by glacial retreat. Recent research has indicated that short‐term storage and release of sediment in proglacial channels may control the pattern of suspended sediment transfer from these basins. Custom‐built continuously recording turbidimeters installed on a network of nine gauging sites were used to characterize spatial and temporal variability in suspended sediment transfer patterns for the entire proglacial area at Small River Glacier, British Columbia, Canada. Discharge and suspended sediment concentration were measured at 5 min intervals over the ablation season of 2000. Differences in suspended sediment transfer patterns were then extracted using multivariate statistics (principal component and cluster analysis). Results showed that each gauging station was dominated c. 80% of days by diurnal sediment transfer patterns and ‘low’ suspended sediment concentrations. ‘Irregular’ transfer patterns were generally associated with ‘high’ sediment concentrations during snowmelt and rainfall events, resulting in the transfer of up to 70% of the total seasonal suspended sediment load at some gauging stations. Suspended sediment enrichment of up to 600% from channel storage release and extrachannel inputs occurred between the glacial front and distal proglacial boundary. However, these patterns differed significantly between gauging stations as determined by the location of the gauging station within the catchment and meteorological conditions. Overall, the proglacial area was the source for up to 80% of the total suspended sediment yield transferred from the Small River Glacier basin. These results confirmed that sediment stored and released in the proglacial area, in particular from proglacial channels, was controlling suspended sediment transfer patterns. To characterize this control accurately requires multiple gauging stations with high frequency monitoring of suspended sediment concentration. Accurate characterization of this proglacial control on suspended sediment transfer may therefore aid interpretation of suspended sediment yield patterns from glacierized basins. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄河三角洲农牧业生产潜力

本文从对黄河三角洲的宜农地和宜牧地的分析入手,对该区农作物生产潜力、牧草及载畜量潜力进行了探讨。并针对目前农牧业生产水平和存在的问题,提出了相应的对策。