Fluvial response to Weichselian climate changes in the Niederlausitz (Germany)

The last glacial shows large variations in climate, which are reflected in the fluvial record in the Niederlausitz, eastern Germany. The entire sequence resembles the fluvial development in other river basins in northwestern Europe, which show contemporaneous changes in depositional style at the onset of a climatic change. During the Middle and the Late Pleniglacial, permafrost conditions resulted in an episodic river discharge. The presence or absence of vegetation, in combination with such ephemeral stream conditions, determined the type of river during each period. A relatively well-developed vegetation cover on the flood plains during the Middle Pleniglacial resulted in a low sediment yield. In combination with the intermittent discharge, this caused the development of an ephemeral anastomosing river system, a river with stable channels and extensive sandy overbank areas. The decline in vegetation cover at ca. 28 ka BP caused an increase in sediment yield and peak discharges, which resulted in the development of a sandy braided river in adjustment to these new conditions. Following the coldest period at around 20 ka, precipitation was so low that fluvial activity was limited and aeolian deposition took place in the valley. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

商业地矿项目评价模型和相关问题剖析

文章介绍了地矿项目政治-经济-技术综合评价模型和地质-采矿-冶炼技术评价模型,并对项目谈判中资料、报价和时限等相关问题进行了剖析。     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

Rapid Lateglacial tree population dynamics and ecosystem changes in the eastern Baltic region

A growing body of evidence implies that the concept of 'treeless tundra' in eastern and northern Europe fails to explain the rapidity of Lateglacial and postglacial tree population dynamics of the region, yet the knowledge of the geographic locations and shifting of tree populations is fragmentary. Pollen, stomata and plant macrofossil stratigraphies from Lake Kurjanovas in the poorly studied eastern Baltic region provide improved knowledge of ranges of north‐eastern European trees during the Lateglacial and subsequent plant population responses to the abrupt climatic changes of the Lateglacial/Holocene transition. The results prove the Lateglacial presence of tree populations (Betula, Pinus and Picea) in the eastern Baltic region. Particularly relevant is the stomatal and plant macrofossil evidence showing the local presence of reproductive Picea populations during the Younger Dryas stadial at 12 900–11 700 cal. a BP, occurring along with Dryas octopetala and arctic herbs, indicating semi‐open vegetation. The spread of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 14 400 cal. a BP, the rise of Picea at ca. 12 800 cal. a BP and the re‐establishment of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 11 700 cal. a BP within a span of centuries further suggest strikingly rapid, climate‐driven ecosystem changes rather than gradual plant succession on a newly deglaciated land. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多功能水合物沉积物三轴试验系统的研制与应用

研制了新型多功能水合物沉积物三轴试验系统,系统由供-排气模块、应力加载模块、温控模块、数据采集模块和辅助模块组成。利用泵驱动高压液体施加围压和轴压,加载方式有恒压、恒流、梯度增压、跟踪气压模式,可以实现不同条件下的水合物合成、三轴剪切。围压跟踪气压的功能使水合物生成过程中净围压不变,保证了试样初始条件一致性。根据围压液体积变化测量试样体积变形,通过设置回压泵压力变化方式控制水合物气压,可以模拟不同降压速率条件下的水合物沉积物分解变形。以泥质粉细砂和二氧化碳为材料制作了三轴试样,进行了水合物合成、三轴剪切和降压分解试验,检验了仪器的可靠性。     

Targeting seasonal climate forecasts for integration into household level decisions: the case of smallholder farmers in Lesotho

Seasonal climate forecasts have been promoted as a means to increase the resilience of marginal groups in Africa. The manifestations of this are still to be seen. This paper argues that successful dissemination and adoption of the forecast requires an in-depth profile of the characteristics and needs of user groups. The case study of a mountainous village in southern Lesotho is used to highlight the decisions which one group of marginal users – smallholder farmers – might make in response to the forecast. A participatory role-play exercise explores what information households presently receive and how new climate forecast information could be integrated into seasonal decision making. Results show that there are a number of low-input options available to these farmers for responding to the forecast. Adoption, however, is going to require repeated exposure to the forecast in conjunction with forecast development that is suited to users' needs. The case study is linked back to the larger scale by suggesting paths that seasonal climate forecast development could take if it is to contribute to improving livelihood sustainability among marginal groups.     

1981—2018年内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土对气候变化的响应

以1981—2018年内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土为研究对象,通过气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall法、多元线性回归等方法,分析最大冻土时空分布特征、年际、年代际变化,研究影响最大冻土深度变化的气象因子。结果表明：（1） 内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土冻结初日在9—11月,终日在4—6月,年内最大冻土深度出现在2—3月,深度在100~280 cm之间。（2） 最大冻土深度年际变化分为下开口抛物线型、上开口抛物线型、正弦曲线型,从最大冻土深度气候倾向率看呈现减小趋势的站点有68%。（3） 最大冻土深度年代际变化分为逐年代递减、减-增型和无明显变化规律,50%的站点在1989年以后最大冻土深度发生突变。（4） 多元线性回归表明气温冻结指数、年平均风速、年极端最低气温对最大冻土深度产生显著影响。该研究揭示了最大冻土深度存在退化的事实,为草原应对气候变化提供指导,为陆地土壤和大气碳循环交换的研究给出提示。     

Preindustrial, historical, and fertilization simulations using a global ocean carbon model with new parameterizations of iron limitation, calcification, and N2 fixation

The Canadian Model of Ocean Carbon (CMOC) has been developed as part of a global coupled climate carbon model. In a stand-alone integration to preindustrial equilibrium, the model ecosystem and global ocean carbon cycle are in general agreement with estimates based on observations. CMOC reproduces global mean estimates and spatial distributions of various indicators of the strength of the biological pump; the spatial distribution of the air-sea exchange of CO₂ is consistent with present-day estimates. Agreement with the observed distribution of alkalinity is good, consistent with recent estimates of the mean rain ratio that are lower than historic estimates, and with calcification occurring primarily in the lower latitudes. With anthropogenic emissions and climate forcing from a 1850-2000 climate model simulation, anthropogenic CO₂ accumulates at a similar rate and with a similar spatial distribution as estimated from observations. A hypothetical scenario for complete elimination of iron limitation generates maximal rates of uptake of atmospheric CO₂ of less than 1 PgC y⁻¹, or about 11% of 2004 industrial emissions. Even a ‘perfect’ future of sustained fertilization would have a minor impact on atmospheric CO₂ growth. In the long term, the onset of fertilization causes the ocean to take up an additional 77 PgC after several thousand years, compared with about 84 PgC thought to have occurred during the transition into the last glacial maximum due to iron fertilization associated with increased dust deposition.     

浅谈项目投资失败的原因及对策

地勘单位在向企业化经营转变的过程中 ,投资兴办了许多企业 ,但不少项目以失败告终。文章分析探讨了失败的原因 ,并提出相应的对策     

天然气水合物勘查相关技术集成研发进展

天然气水合物作为21世纪新型潜在能源,在新一轮地质调查背景下,国家加大了天然气水合物勘查技术的研发投入。通过跟踪国外天然气水合物调查前沿技术,结合我国实际勘查需求,在对声学深拖探测系统、可控源海洋电磁探测技术、现场检测及原位监测等技术现状进行分析的基础上,开展了相应的研发工作,重点介绍了各技术装备研发工作进展及目前取得的阶段成果,并提出了下一步的工作要点。