乌鲁木齐河青年渠冬季引水冰雪堵塞解决途径探讨

乌鲁木齐河青年渠是乌拉泊水库的主要水源途径,为了保证给乌鲁木齐市供水,必须在冬季利用青年渠引水,由于冬季青年渠引水,会受到冰雪淤积的威胁,有时甚至会封渠断流,并危及周边农牧民的正常生活和生产,冬季引水冰雪淤塞,原因是多方面的,对其原因进行分析,提出了解决途径,为冬季引水提供参考。     

中国北方冬季气温的年际变化对北太平洋东部海温异常的响应

利用地面气温观测资料及NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,分析了中纬度北太平洋东部海温异常变化对中国北方地区冬季气温的可能影响。结果表明,前期夏、秋季中纬度北太平洋东部海温与北方地区冬季气温存在持续稳定的正相关关系,并且这种相关性在年代际尺度上较年际尺度更为显著。这种联系与中纬度北太平洋东部关键区海温在对流层中低层激发出的一种类似北美—大西洋—欧亚遥相关型波列有关。当前期关键区海温偏高（低）时,其激发的波列使得乌拉尔山阻塞高压偏弱（强）,西伯利亚高压偏弱（强）,导致贝加尔湖以南大部地区受正（负）高度距平控制,亚洲地区中高纬以纬（经）向环流为主,有利于北方大部地区气温偏高（低）。研究表明,中纬度北太平洋东部海温异常通过激发出一个从关键海区到我国北方地区的跨越东西半球的遥相关型波列,引发北半球中高纬度大气环流异常,进而影响北方冬季气温。     

Mooring system reliability in tropical cyclone and North Sea winter storm environments

The characteristics of waves, winds and currents in a tropical cyclone environment differ significantly from those in a winter storm environment, like the North Sea. This can have a significant effect on the reliability of a mooring system that is designed to satisfy 100 yr conditions with specified Factors of Safety in accordance with ISO19901-7 or API RP 2SK. This paper presents reliability analysis of the mooring system of a permanently connected Floating LNG vessel, placed at two locations: (a) a tropical cyclone environment of the North West Shelf of Australia and (b) a winter storm environment of the North Sea. It is demonstrated that as a result of differences in the long term distribution of environmental parameters (waves, winds) between a North Sea environment and a tropical cyclone environment, the long term distribution of the mooring line response differs significantly in these two locations.This paper shows that a mooring system which is designed in accordance with ISO (or API), in these two environments, will achieve very different reliability levels because of the significant differences in environmental characteristics. In order to achieve the same reliability for the mooring system at these two geographical locations, Factors of Safety for use with 100 yr environmental conditions (Ultimate Limit State) were derived to achieve the same target probability of failure of 10⁻⁴/annum. It was found that for the North Sea environment, a factor of 1.5 is required for both the mooring chain and the pile, while for the tropical cyclone environment the required Factor of Safety has to be increased to 2.1. These differences are very significant and design standards need to be revised to reflect these findings.     

Development and implementation of a multiscale biomass model using hyperspectral vegetation indices for winter wheat in the North China Plain

Crop monitoring during the growing season is important for regional management decisions and biomass prediction. The objectives of this study were to develop, improve and validate a scale independent biomass model. Field studies were conducted in Huimin County, Shandong Province of China, during the 2006–2007 growing season of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). The field design had a multiscale set-up with four levels which differed in their management, such as nitrogen fertilizer inputs and cultivars, to create different biomass conditions: small experimental fields (L1), large experimental fields (L2), small farm fields (L3), and large farm fields (L4). L4, planted with different winter wheat varieties, was managed according to farmers’ practice while L1 through L3 represented controlled field experiments. Multitemporal spectral measurements were taken in the fields, and biomass was sampled for each spectral campaign. In addition, multitemporal Hyperion data were obtained in 2006 and 2007. L1 field data were used to develop biomass models based on the relation between the winter wheat spectra and biomass: several published vegetation indices, including NRI, REP, OSAVI, TCI, and NDVI, were investigated. A new hyperspectral vegetation index, which uses a four-band combination in the NIR and SWIR domains, named GnyLi, was developed. Following the multiscale concept, the data of higher levels (L2 through L4) were used stepwise to validate and improve the models of the lower levels, and to transfer the improved models to the next level. Lastly, the models were transferred and validated at the regional scale using Hyperion images of 2006 and 2007. The results showed that the GnyLi and NRI models, which were based on the NIR and SWIR domains, performed best with R² > 0.74. All the other indices explained less than 60% model variability. Using the Hyperion data for regionalization, GnyLi and NRI explained 81–89% of the biomass variability. These results highlighted that GnyLi and NRI can be used together with hyperspectral images for both plot and regional level biomass estimation. Nevertheless, additional studies and analyses are needed to test its replicability in other environmental conditions.     

东亚冬季风指数的分类和比较

在回顾了2009年以前定义过的冬季风指数的基础上,按照定义要素的不同,进行了分类及序列延长计算,并将现有的冬季风指数分为海陆气压差类(4个)、高压特征类(3个)、风场特征类(9个)、环流特征类(4个)和综合类(2个)。研究了这些冬季风指数的年际及年代际变化趋势及其周期变化,分析了各指数之间的相关性,以及冬季风指数对中国冬季大陆气温变化的指示性。结果表明:东亚冬季风存在缓慢减弱的变化趋势,主要呈现出准6a,准11a和准17a的周期振荡特征。同类别指数之间的相关性要优于不同类别的。东亚冬季风指数与中国冬季大陆气温相关性普遍好的地区主要在河套及内蒙古中部、华南和东南沿海、四川盆地等。     

中国东北冬季相邻两天降温特征及其年代际变化

利用1961-2012年CN05.2的日平均温度、日最低温度和日最高温度,将3种温度资料冬季相邻两天的降温情况分为弱降温、一般性降温和强降温3类,并分析了这3类降温的时空分布特征。结果表明：日平均温度和日最低温度的弱降温和一般性降温发生频次最大的地区位于大、小兴安岭地区和长白山山脉一带,而强降温发生频次最大的区域则为长白山山脉一带;这三类降温的高频发生时段均为20世纪60年代和70年代,随后开始减少,到21世纪初为发生频次最少时段。对日最高温度而言,弱降温和一般性降温高频发区为42°-45°N,呈带状分布,其北部和南部均为一般性降温发生频次的低发区,呈现"低-高-低"的频次分布特征,而强降温的高频发生区则位于长白山山脉一带;同日平均温度和日最低温度年代际变化特征一样,日最高温度3类降温均在20世纪60年代和70年代频次最大,其后发生频次开始减少。     

利用WOFOST作物模型研究气候变暖对冬小麦产量的影响

全球气候变暖已经成为一个不争的事实,开展气候变化对冬小麦产量影响的数值模拟对制定农业政策以适应气候变化具有重要意义。本文使用荷兰瓦赫宁根大学开发的WOFOST模型,利用太谷2000年和2001年的数据对WOFOST模型进行验证,确定该模型在山西太谷地区的适用性。文章分析了太谷地区气温变化趋势,假定以1985年-2007年的变暖趋势增温,假设其它条件不变,从而构建了100年内每10a的时间间隔的气象情形。以这些气象情形驱动验证好的模型模拟100年内每10a的时间间隔气候变暖对冬小麦产量的影响。模拟结果表明,气温变化对冬小麦产量的影响不是单一的,未来冬小麦的产量是波动变化的。     

High salinity winter outflow from a mega inverse-estuary—the Great Australian Bight

Conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) observations taken in the Great Australian Bight (GAB) during ORV Franklin cruise Fr 07/94 in July 1994 indicated the presence of a dense bottom layer at the head of the GAB, which flowed along the sea floor towards the shelf-break as a gravity current The north central region of the GAB was stratified with a maximum salinity difference of between 0.4 and 0.5. The outflow was confined to the shelf and was directed in a south-easterly direction with little evidence of cross-shelf transport. The flow exhibited a well-defined bottom interface evident from the head of the GAB to near the mouth of Spencer Gulf (SG), where the surface-bottom salinity difference was about 0.3. The mean thickness of the outflow was about 15 m. An estimate of the speed of the outflow at the discharge over the shelf-break was made using the zero entrainment assumption. This yielded a speed of <16 cm s⁻¹, which remarkably was consistent with near bottom current meter measurements (16 cm s⁻¹) on the continental shelf edge, reported south of the Eyre Peninsula. A mass budget analysis indicated that the outflow, which probably is partially maintained by the gravity current and partly by a wind-driven circulation would exist over the period, July–December, with a peak transport of about 10⁶ m³s⁻¹ (1 Sverdrup) which is approximately twenty times that of the bottom outflow from the adjoining Spencer Gulf.     

陕西省冬小麦干旱风险分析及区划

根据自然灾害分析原理, 以县为单元, 从干旱对冬小麦造成的减产出发, 分别就各县灾损率、易灾性、抗灾能力三方面进行了讨论。以风险指数为区划指标, 在GIS系统 (City Star) 中, 按等级划分标准对各县属性值进行分级、赋色, 获得GIS系统支持下的陕西省冬小麦干旱风险区划图, 并分区予以评述。     

冬季西太平洋遥相关型的环流结构特征及其与我国冬季气温和降水的关系

用近55 a资料研究了冬季西太平洋遥相关型(WP)异常环流特征及其与我国冬季天气气候的关系。结果表明:冬季西太平洋遥相关型与我国冬季天气气候关系密切。高指数年500 hPa高度场亚洲大陆上空中高纬为负高度异常,中纬度西风偏强,环流呈纬向型,对应海平面气压场上西伯利亚高压偏弱,东亚冬季风偏弱;低指数年情况相反。冬季西太平洋遥相关指数与我国冬季气温和降水存在显著的大范围正相关,与气温的高相关区为我国东部、南部沿海及西南地区所形成的U型区域,而与降水的高相关区则主要分布在我国东部地区。