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61.
本研究对比分析了不同气候态下,华北冬、夏季降水及气温的差异,分析了气候平均值的改变对历史极端事件监测的可能影响。研究结果发现,1991~2020年(简称气候Ⅱ态)的冬季和夏季的平均降水量均略多于1981~2010年(简称气候Ⅰ态),但接近或略少于1961~2020年的平均降水量,平均降水量逐年变化幅度冬季Ⅱ态小于Ⅰ态,夏季反之。气候Ⅱ态冬季降水空间分布不均,夏季较Ⅰ态呈“中部减少,东西增加”的分布型。冬季和夏季极端降水阈值Ⅱ态(0.86 mm和22.0 mm)较Ⅰ态(0.83 mm和21.6 mm)均略有提高,造成近60年华北大部基于Ⅱ态阈值的冬、夏季极端降水日数较Ⅰ态略减少。此外,气候Ⅱ态的华北冬、夏季平均气温均明显高于Ⅰ态,也高于1961~2020年平均值。Ⅱ态气温较Ⅰ态基本呈全区增加特征,但空间分布不均匀。冬季极端低温和夏季极端高温阈值Ⅱ态(-9.8°C和27.9°C)较Ⅰ态(-10.2°C和27.5°C)均有所有所提高,造成华北大部分地区基于Ⅱ态阈值的近60年冬季极端低温日数较Ⅰ态有所增加,夏季极端高温日数较Ⅰ态存在不同程度的减少。因此,新气候态下华北气温和降水均值,华北大部极... 相似文献
62.
Zr/Rb比值因不受后期成壤作用影响,在黄土高原黄土堆积中可作为较好的冬季风气候替代性指标。与黄土沉积相比,中国北方沙地的气候变化研究相对较弱,能够敏感反映沙地气候变化的替代性指标仍处于探索阶段。本文选取东亚季风控制区的毛乌素沙地、浑善达克沙地和科尔沁沙地11个典型的风成沉积序列,对Zr/Rb比值及其意义进行了研究。通过全岩样品Zr、Rb元素含量、Zr/Rb比值与平均粒径和>63 μm的粗颗粒百分含量对比分析,发现在毛乌素沙地,Zr/Rb比值与粗颗粒百分含量和平均粒径成正相关关系,与黄土高原的变化趋势相似,可作为冬季风强度的替代性指标。而在浑善达克沙地和科尔沁沙地,虽然Rb含量在砂质古土壤层中随着细颗粒物质的增加而增大,与毛乌素沙地的变化相同;但是,Zr含量也表现出增加趋势,导致Zr/Rb比值变化趋势与毛乌素沙地相反。其主要原因可能是沙地所处的构造地貌单元不同,物源区存在差异。因此,Zr/Rb比值作为冬季风的替代性指标在不同沙地应用需要慎重分析。 相似文献
63.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(1):1-9
Winter storms are a major weather problem in the United States and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202
catastrophic winter storms involving ice storms, blizzards, and snowstorms, each causing >$5 million in damages, occurred
during 1949–2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts
of the contiguous United States, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred.
They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic
storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of nine storms, and one year had no storms. Temporal
distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms
were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing weather
conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation’s 202 storms during 1949–2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas
the nation’s storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease
in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm
intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting
a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms. 相似文献
64.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):465-470
Increasing losses of life and property and damages to the environment due to sleet and related winter storm conditions have
increased the need for long-term sleet storm data to better assess the point and regional risks of sleet and their long-term
variations. The areas of greatest losses and frequency of catastrophes caused by sleet during 1971–2007 are the Northeast
and Central regions of the U.S. These two regions experienced 72% of all the nation’s sleet losses. Most of the western U.S.
had no damaging sleet-related events or losses. When sleet losses occurred, they tended to be in 2, 3, or 4 adjacent states.
Sleet catastrophes were most common in January with 15 of the 30 events. The earliest storm occurred in October and the latest
in March. The temporal distributions of catastrophes and their losses during 1971–2007 were similar. Both showed a secondary
peak in 1976–1979, a low in 1988–1991, and then high values during the 1996–2007 period. The temporal distributions of damaging
storms and losses indicate an upward trend over time. 相似文献
65.
喜马拉雅山南坡冬季暴雪对高原南部冰芯中稳定同位素记录的影响 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
聂拉木气象站降水中 δ18O的变化表明 ,夏季降水中 δ18O为一低值阶段 ;冬季降水中 δ18O总的来说为一高值阶段 ,但冬季暴风雪中δ18O的值和夏季强的季风活动中降水的δ18O一样很低。由于该地区冬季降水十分活跃 ,冬季降水中 δ18O的变化对该地区冰芯记录将产生重要的影响。首先是用δ18O的季节变化来对冰芯定年产生一定的困难 ,其次喜马拉雅山中段冰芯中的δ18O记录不仅包括了夏季季风活动的强弱信息 ,而且冬季强的暴风雪过程也记录在内。 相似文献
66.
东亚冬季风活动与厄·尼诺的关系 总被引:11,自引:1,他引:11
本文利用1951—1986年全球月平均海平面气压资料以及赤道东太平洋的海温资料,研究了东亚冬季风的年际变化与厄·尼诺的关系,主要结果有:(1)东亚冬季风盛行期(10—3)赤道东太平洋海温与海平面气压场的密切相关区,主要位于亚洲南部和西太平洋(正相关)、澳洲北部(正相关)以及阿留申群岛地区(负相关)。(2)海温的变化一般超前冬季风的变化1—2个季节,以11月的海温与之相关最密切。(3)厄·尼诺年冬季,东亚大陆冷空气南下路径偏东,我国南方多雨。反厄·尼诺年相反,冷空气南下路径偏西,我国南方少雨。 相似文献
67.
基于加速器质谱仪AMS14C高精度定年,以及应用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)对S10孔岩芯沉积物进行微量元素测试,对冲绳海槽中部沉积物的微量元素组成及其记录的物源和古环境信息展开研究。研究结果显示,稀土元素、Th、Nb和Ta元素反映陆源碎屑混合矿物的化学组成特征,Zr和Hf元素指示锆石矿物的化学组成,锆石主要为火山来源,Sc元素可能与铁镁物质有关。稀土元素分析表明沉积物主要由陆源和火山源物质组成,陆源物质主要来自长江和黄河,不同时期,各源区物质贡献量不同:16 500~11 600 a,长江、黄河为沉积物的主要物质来源;11 600~7 750 a,长江物质贡献减少,黄河物质为主;7 750~6 450 a,K-Ah火山物质为主,长江、黄河物质供给骤减;6 450~3 900 a,长江、黄河陆源物质输入增加,4 000 a左右受火山作用影响;3 900~1 900 a,长江、黄河陆源物质输入持续增多;1 900 a以来长江、黄河物质仍有增加,且以黄河物质为主。此外,物源判别公式研究显示台湾物质输入量不能有效反映黑潮演变,而长江、黄河物质输入量对17 000 a以来东亚冬季风的强弱变化有很好的指示,可作为东亚冬季风演变的新证据。这些研究结果表明,冲绳海槽中部微量元素研究可得到海槽17 000 a以来物源及东亚冬季风的演化情况,有助于重建全新世以来沉积物物源及古环境的演变历史。 相似文献
68.
This paper examines along-channel winds within Howe Sound, British Columbia, Canada, that occur from both the interior plateau out toward the coast as outflows and from the coast inland as inflows. First, the relationships between along-channel winds and pressure, temperature, and humidity are explored in Howe Sound–Cheakamus Valley. The pressure gradients between Pam Rocks and Squamish and Pam Rocks and Pemberton have the strongest correlations with outflow strength and that between Pam Rocks and Squamish has the strongest correlation with inflow strength. Outflows (inflows) have lower (higher) temperatures and dew point temperatures, except for the inflows in summer, which have lower dewpoint temperatures than the overall mean. Second, two case studies of outflow events are presented and described during the period of intensive observations prior to and during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics. The January 2010 outflow event is caused by a zone of strong across-barrier mean sea level pressure gradient. The pressure gradient is formed behind an Arctic front that moved southward across Howe Sound. The February 2010 outflow event is caused by an approaching sea level low pressure centre from the Pacific that formed a northeast–southwest mean sea level pressure gradient across southern British Columbia. In the January case, the outflow layer is about 1.5?km deep, while it is shallower in the February case. Only the January outflow case exhibits hydraulic behaviour. 相似文献
69.
Remote sensing images are widely used to map leaf area index (LAI) continuously over landscape. The objective of this study is to explore the ideal image features from Chinese HJ-1 A/B CCD images for estimating winter wheat LAI in Beijing. Image features were extracted from such images over four seasons of winter wheat growth, including five vegetation indices (VIs), principal components (PC), tasseled cap transformations (TCT) and texture parameters. The LAI was significantly correlated with the near-infrared reflectance band, five VIs [normalized difference vegetation index, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), modified nonlinear vegetation index (MNLI), optimization of soil-adjusted vegetation index, and ratio vegetation index], the first principal component (PC1) and the second TCT component (TCT2). However, these image features cannot significantly improve the estimation accuracy of winter wheat LAI in conjunction with eight texture measures. To determine the few ideal features with the best estimation accuracy, partial least squares regression (PLSR) and variable importance in projection (VIP) were applied to predict LAI values. Four remote sensing features (TCT2, PC1, MNLI and EVI) were chosen based on VIP values. The result of leave-one-out cross-validation demonstrated that the PLSR model based on these four features produced better result than the ten features’ model, throughout the whole growing season. The results of this study suggest that selecting a few ideal image features is sufficient for LAI estimation. 相似文献
70.
根据 El Nino和 La Nina发生以后冬季赤道东太平洋海温距平的月际差定义了 El Nino和 La Nina冬季增强型和冬季减弱型 ,讨论了 El Nino和 La Nina冬季增强型和减弱型冬、春、夏季大气环流、东亚季风及我国夏季降水和旱涝分布的特征 .我国夏季降水和旱涝有明显差异的四种不同分布型可能与冬季所处 ENSO循环的不同阶段以及大气环流和东亚季风对它的不同响应有关 .提出了从 El Nino和 La Nina冬季不同型→大气环流和东亚季风→我国夏季降水和旱涝分布型的物理统计概念模型 . 相似文献