Access routes to high mountain huts facing climate-induced environmental changes and adaptive strategies in the Western Alps since the 1990s

ABSTRACT

In the European Alps, high mountain environments are subject to major impacts resulting from climate change, which strongly affect human activities such as mountaineering. The purpose of the study was to examine changes in access routes to 30 high mountain huts in the Western Alps since the 1990s. Data were derived from the use of two different methods, geo-historical studies and a questionnaire, and were used to identify both the climate-related processes affecting the climbing routes and the strategies implemented by public entities, Alpine clubs, guide companies, and hut keepers to maintain acceptable safety and technical conditions. The case studies revealed issues affecting three access routes and the results from the questionnaire showed that the main processes affecting access routes were loss of ice thickness and retreat from the front of the glaciated areas. Commonly, in situ equipment was installed to facilitate access for mountaineers and/or a part of a route was relocated to a safer area. The authors conclude that in most cases, the measures were effective but they were limited by financial, ethical and legal issues, especially in protected or classified areas that could jeopardise their durability and effectiveness.     

基于深度学习的钨钼找矿靶区预测方法研究

随着矿产勘查工作由浅部矿向深部隐伏矿、由易识别矿向难识别矿发展,找矿难度日益增大,地质专家越来越重视新理论、新方法、新技术的应用。深度学习作为人工智能的前沿领域/技术,对于实现矿产资源预测“智能化预测评价”具有得天独厚的优势。本文以陕西省镇安县西部钨钼矿集区单元素化探异常原始数据为基础,提出了基于深度学习的钨钼矿产评价方法。该方法以归一化地球化学数据作为模型训练数据,通过深度学习中深度自编码网络方法实现异常值提取进而识别重点成矿有利地段,实现矿产资源找矿远景区定性预测。研究结果表明,在对957条单元素化探异常原始数据分类且做好模型标签后,整个过程在计算机的“黑盒子”中自动完成学习和预测,相较于传统预测研究方法,本文方法具有自动化程度高和客观性强的特征。此外,本文利用已知矿点构建训练数据集,采用随机森林方法对预测区进行矿产资源找矿靶区预测圈定,为进一步缩小找矿靶区范围提供科学依据。     

Assessing the extent of mangrove change caused by Cyclone Vance in the eastern Exmouth Gulf, northwestern Australia

Changes in mangal area were quantified in the eastern Exmouth Gulf over six years (1999–2004) after Cyclone Vance using Landsat TM satellite imagery and aerial photography. Vance was the strongest tropical cyclone ever to impact the Australian mainland before 2006 and produced wind gusts of more than 280 km h⁻¹. Image data were processed using ENVI™ and IDRISI™ software. Three sets of Landsat TM images from 1999 (a few days before the cyclone), 2002 and 2004 were used, along with 2004 digital aerial photography. A ‘common’ subset of 904 km² was selected from all images and classification was developed using ISODATA™ unsupervised classification to identify spectrally distinct areas followed by principal component analysis (PCA), vegetation indices and supervised classification. Some 12,800 ha of mangrove habitat was present before the cyclone and approximately 5700 ha (44%) was removed by it. Most mangroves lost (74%) between 1999 and 2004 were converted either to bare sediment or to live saltmarshes and this occurred mostly between 1999 and 2002. Five basic categories of damage were conspicuous from imagery and field observations, and evidence suggests that much of the loss was due to the longer term consequences of sediment deposition or smothering, rather than the immediate effects of wind or waves. Mangroves exhibited accelerated recovery between 2002 and 2004, and around 1580 ha regenerated during this time, amounting to a return of 68% of their former coverage. At this recovery rate we estimate that they should have returned to their pre-cyclone area by 2009. Over half of the saltmarsh habitats (54%) were removed by the cyclone (4060 ha) but their recovery has been far more rapid than mangroves. After 5 years, saltmarshes had returned to 87% of their previous area. The 5700 ha of mangrove habitat damaged by Cyclone Vance exceeds any anthropogenic impact that has ever taken place in Western Australia by several orders of magnitude.     

Light regime and components of turbidity in a Mediterranean coastal lagoon

The underwater light regime of a Mediterranean coastal lagoon (Albufera des Grau, Balearic Islands) was studied during four years in order to characterise the spatial and temporal variations in the light attenuation coefficient (K) and to assess the relative contribution of the different water components to total light attenuation.     

The divergent environmental characteristics of permanently-open,seasonally-open and normally-closed estuaries of south-western Australia

This study has compared the environmental characteristics of the basins and saline lower reaches of the tributaries of eight estuaries on the south coast of Western Australia, which differ in their degree of connectivity with the ocean. Although four estuaries between 115.1° and 121.8° E along that coast remain permanently open to the ocean, the others only become open when the volume of river discharge is sufficient to breach the prominent sand bars at their mouths, which occurs annually following heavy winter and early spring rainfall in some estuaries (seasonally open) and infrequently in others (normally closed). Estuaries to the west of 118.5° E are predominantly permanently open, e.g. Oyster Harbour, or seasonally open, e.g. Broke, Irwin and Wilson inlets, whereas those further east, e.g. Wellstead Estuary and Hamersley, Culham and Stokes inlets, where annual rainfall and thus discharge are much lower, only become open after exceptionally heavy discharge. In permanently and seasonally-open estuaries, pronounced haloclines and oxyclines are present in the narrow rivers but not the wide basins where the waters are subjected to wind-driven mixing. The extent of cyclical seasonal fluctuations in environmental conditions differed markedly among the three seasonally-open estuaries and between years in one of those systems. These differences reflected variations in the relationship between the volume of fluvial discharge, which is determined by a combination of the amount of local rainfall, catchment size and extent of clearing of native vegetation, and the amount of intrusion by marine waters, which is largely controlled by the size and duration of the opening of the estuary mouth. The mean seasonal salinities in the basins of the three normally-closed estuaries increased over three years of very low rainfall to 64 in the deepest of these estuaries (Stokes Inlet) to 145 in Hamersley Inlet and to 296 in the shallowest estuary (Culham Inlet). These results demonstrate that the environmental characteristics of estuaries on the south coast of Western Australia differ markedly, even among those of the same type, e.g. seasonally-open estuaries or normally-closed estuaries.     

西太平洋暖池热含量变化与东亚冬季风关系

利用 1955-2003 年 NCEP\NCAR 再分析资料和美国 Scripps 海洋研究所环境数据分析中心 ( JEDAC ) 提供的冬季热含量资料,采用小波分析、相关及合成分析等方法, 分析了西太平洋暖池热含量变化特征及其与东亚冬季风关系.结果表明,西太平洋暖池热含量与东亚冬季风有着非常密切的联系,当西太平洋暖池热含量异常偏高时,对流层低层在菲律宾及以东洋面形成一个异常的气旋性环流,中国大陆上空形成一个异常的反气旋性环流,从而使得东亚冬季风在东南区加强,西北区减弱.     

ENSO事件对西北太平洋热带气旋影响的分级研究

采用1951-2006年联合台风警报中心(JTWC)最佳路径数据集和气候预测中心(CPC) ENSO资料,分析了西北太平洋不同等级热带气旋累积能量(accumulated cyclone energy,ACE)与ENSO指数之间的关系.结果表明;ACE与ENSO指数间存在正相关关系;分级热带气旋中,ENSO事件主要通过超强台风(Super TY)的活动与ACE指数联系起来的,超强台风频数在El Ni(n)o期间多于La Ni(n)a 期间,同时持续时间也更长;ENSO指数和热带气旋活跃季超强台风ACE指数的滞后相关(ENSO指数滞后5个月内)与它们的同时相关大小相当.此外,还研究了分级热带气旋持续时间、强度和频数分别对ACE指数的贡献,结果显示超强台风频数的贡献最大.接下来,利用1951-2006年不同ENSO位相情况下NCEP再分析资料,分析了ENSO影响超强台风发生发展的物理机制.主要结论为:西北太平洋存在一些SuperTY频数与源地分布在ENSO年与平常年相比有明显差异的关键区;ENSO事件改变关键区低层相对涡度以及海表温度是其影响SuperTY源地及频数变化的重要途径.     

西北太平洋热带气旋发生的时空变化特征

利用中国气象局整编的1949-1988年的《台风年鉴》和1989-2000年的《热带气旋年鉴》资料，统计分析了西北太平洋热带气旋的主要发生源地、各强度等级热带气旋发生的经纬度变化特征、各强度等级热带气旋发生源地和发生频率的季节变化特征。结果表明：西北太平洋有三个热带气旋的主要发生地，分别是南海中北部偏东洋面、菲律宾以东至加罗林群岛之间的洋面、加罗林群岛一带洋面；热带气旋强度越强，发生位置越偏南、偏东；热带气旋平均发生源地存在明显的季节变化特征，冬季平均发生源地偏南偏东，以后逐渐向北向西偏移，夏季以后又向南向东偏移；各强度等级热带气旋2月平均发生频率最小，8月平均发生频率最大，全年TC较集中地发生在7～10月期间。     

西太平洋暖池研究的新进展

对近几年国内外有关热带西太平洋暖池的现场观测、暖池物理机制、暖池与ENSO的关系、暖池异常变化对气候的影响等方面的最新研究进展作了回顾;同时,对目前暖池研究中存在的几个问题进行了简要的讨论。     

解郁安神法联合体外反搏对PCI术后气滞血瘀型胸痹患者的临床疗效观察

目的：观察解郁安神法联合体外反搏（EECP）对经皮冠状动脉介入治疗（PCI）术后气滞血瘀型胸痹患者的临床疗效。方法：将80例冠心病PCI术后气滞血瘀型胸痹患者随机分为治疗组和对照组,每组各40例。对照组采用PCI术后规范化治疗,同时联合EECP治疗;治疗组在对照组基础上加服解郁安神方治疗,随访观察7周,比较2组临床证候疗效、Zung焦虑自评量表（SAS）评分、抑郁自评量表（SDS）评分、西雅图心绞痛调查量表（SAQ）评分。结果：总有效率治疗组为82.5%（33/40）,高于对照组的60.0%（24/40）,2组比较,差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）;2组SAS、SDS、SAQ评分治疗前后组内比较及治疗后组间比较,差异均有统计学意义（P<0.05）。结论：解郁安神法联合EECP治疗可明显改善PCI术后气滞血瘀型胸痹患者的临床症状,缓解焦虑抑郁程度,提高患者生活质量,值得临床推广应用。