杰氏风暴潮预报方法在珠海及粤西海域的应用

本文通过杰氏风暴潮预报方法对历史上给珠海和粤西海域造成较大影响的台风增水事件进行后报试验,并通过统计分析方法对原有的预报公式进行订正,总结出适合珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报公式.利用5a的时间对珠海及粤西海域的台风增水进行试报,结果表明预报准确率分别达95.0%和87.6%,尤其对一些增水较大、影响较严重的台风增水预报相对更加准确,预报准确率均达90.0%以上.这说明订正后的公式对珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报能得到较好的预报效果.     

In situ and satellite observations of the eastward migration of the Western Alboran Sea Gyre

During October 2003 an intensive oceanographic survey (BIOMEGA) was carried out in the Alboran Sea, coinciding with a migration event of the Western Alboran Sea Gyre (WAG). The observations gathered during that cruise constitute the first field evidence of a migrated stage of the WAG. In this work we present the main differences between the 3D hydrodynamic fields observed during BIOMEGA and those corresponding to a WAG located at its usual position. The migration of the gyre was followed by satellite (altimetry and sea surface temperature) imagery. The causes of the gyre migration are explored in terms of the quasi-geostrophic tendency equation, in particular of the dynamics governing scales larger than the Rossby radius of deformation. It is shown that the steady state gyre must be almost equivalent barotropic and that the key process to break down the stationarity would be a density advection at gyre scale. The mechanisms to explain the migration of the WAG proposed by previous authors are discussed in light of the explanation proposed in this work.     

How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?

During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.     

Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m^− 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.     

准噶尔盆地火山岩分类研究与应用

岩石分类一直是人们长期探索的课题。由于油气勘探的需要,针对储层研究的盆地火山岩分类已经成为火成岩研究的重要新方向。在综合分析国内外火山岩分类研究的基础上,根据3条野外剖面和21口钻井岩心岩屑的观察描述、岩石薄片鉴定和化学成分分析等资料,依照结构-成分-成因分类原则,建立了适于储层评价的准噶尔盆地石炭系火山岩及其他岩类的岩性分类体系和识别标准。将本区火山岩划分为火山熔岩、火山碎屑熔岩、火山碎屑岩、沉火山碎屑岩等4大类;同时将盆地内与火山岩共生的其他岩类也进行分类和识别,共划分出8大类45种基本类型。与我国东部的中新生代盆地火山岩不同,本区古生代火山岩普遍遭受较长期风化改造和蚀变作用,常见有绿泥石化、碳酸盐化和黏土矿化。这些蚀变会影响到TAS图解岩性判别的结果,因此笔者探讨了蚀变条件下的岩石识别和定名方法。本文分类体系针对火山岩储层研究,结果显示,基于该分类体系岩性与储集空间的类型及其变化规律呈现明显相关性,不同岩性的储集空间类型、组合方式和发育程度存在差异,由此可指导火山岩油气勘探。     

尼日尔Termit盆地上白垩统储层岩石学特征及控制因素分析

本文对尼日尔Termit盆地17口井218个井壁取芯样品开展普通薄片、阴极发光、X衍射、扫描电镜及重矿物分析,研究上白垩统储层的岩石学特征,并探讨其控制因素。实验分析结果表明,Termit盆地上白垩统储层的岩石类型主要为石英砂岩,成分成熟度高,以石英为主,含量达86%以上,钾长石、方解石及斜长石等含少量,占比约5%,这种岩石类型对原生孔隙的保存比较有利;填隙物主要为粘土杂基,含量为7%左右,矿物成分以高岭石为主,利于对晶间孔的保留;岩石中发育硅质、方解石和铁质等胶结类型,胶结物的含量占比较小,对储层的破坏作用不大;重矿物类型为磁铁矿、赤铁矿、锆石、磷灰石,推测物源区的母岩类型主要为花岗岩;以细粒结构和少量的不等粒结构为主,分选中等-差,磨圆度一般为次棱角-次圆状,磨圆差。与国内石英砂岩沉积于高能的滨浅海环境不同,研究区石英砂岩成分成熟度高,但分选程度和磨圆度较低,一方面反映了物源区母岩富含石英,同时也反映了这种石英砂岩沉积于近源的河流-三角洲环境。影响研究区上白垩统储层物性的主要因素是岩石类型及成岩作用,由于储层的岩石类型为石英砂岩,压实作用对储层的破坏作用较一般岩石类型偏小。砂岩埋深小于2500m时,主要发育原生孔隙,面孔率大于15%。溶蚀作用对本区储层产生一定的影响,最常见的为长石的溶蚀,溶蚀作用形成粒内溶孔和粒间溶孔,还会扩大原生孔隙形成混合孔,改善了砂岩的储集性能。     

Mineralogical and geochemical investigations of the Dajia Salento-type bauxite deposits,western Guangxi,China

The Dajia Salento-type bauxite deposit in western Guangxi is hosted within the Quaternary ferrallitic soil profile, and it formed via breaking up, weathering and oxidizing of Permian bauxite orebodies occurring as a semi-continuous layer in the upper Permian. Mineralogical analyses reveal that diaspore, hematite and kaolinite are the major minerals in bauxite ores with small amounts of anatase, chamosite, gibbsite, goethite, illite, zircon, quartz and pyrite. The ore texture and mineral assemblage reveal that the depositional/diagenetic environment of the Dajia bauxite was much close to phreatic environment. Both the ore texture and the morphology of zircon grains also indicate that most of the bauxitic soils were transported a short distance. Diaspore is suggested to be non-metamorphic in origin and mainly formed in a reducing condition of diagenetic environment, while kaolinite is the product of the in situ epigenetic replacement of alumina in diaspore by dissolved silica. Geochemical analyses indicate that Al₂O₃, Fe₂O₃, SiO₂ and TiO₂ are the main components of the bauxite ores and trace elements such as Zr, Hf, Nb, Ta, Th and U were enriched during the bauxitization process. Simultaneously, Zr vs. Hf and Nb vs. Ta show a high correlation. Geochemical indices such as Zr/Hf, Nb/Ta and Eu/Eu* (among others) denote that the magmatic rocks related to the Emeishan plume in western Guangxi and the carbonates in the underlying Maokou Formation provided the main sources of material for the bauxite ores.     

北京潭柘寺地区第四纪冰川遗迹的宏观和微观特征

以北京西山潭柘寺地区第四纪冰川遗迹的宏观特征研究为基础,对管坨岭冰期和赵家台冰期的古冰川沉积进行了石英颗粒表面结构形貌组合特征的分析。结果表明,管坨岭冰期的管坨岭冰碛层和大富庄冰碛层,以及赵家台冰期的太平庄冰碛层中的石英颗粒表面结构,以冰川成因的形貌组合占优势,而赵家台冰期鲁家滩冰水沉积中的石英颗粒表面结构,则以冰川和流水共有成因的形貌占优势。所以,据冰川遗迹的宏观和微观特征,可以肯定该区分别在早更新世和中更新世曾发育过两次古冰川作用。      

低渗透储层孔隙结构影响因素及其定量评价——以准噶尔盆地金龙2地区二叠系上乌尔禾组二段为例

利用薄片、扫描电镜、物性及压汞等资料,对金龙2地区三叠系上乌尔禾组二段(P_3w_2)低渗(含砾)砂岩储层孔隙结构及其影响因素进行了研究。结果表明:①乌二段属于低孔低渗储层,根据压汞曲线参数特征,将其孔隙结构划分为三类。②成岩作用控制了储层孔隙结构,定量计算结果表明,乌二段视压实率平均为53.54%、视胶结率平均为47.53%、视溶蚀率平均为13.84%、视微孔隙率平均为60.67%,表现为中等压实、中—强胶结、弱溶蚀、微孔发育等特征;压实作用、胶结作用、微孔隙发育主要控制储层孔隙结构的形成。③引入成岩综合指数来定量表征各种成岩作用的综合强度,其与储层孔隙结构参数(排驱压力、分选系数)以及储层品质因子(RQI)具有较好的统计相关关系,Ⅰ类储层成岩综合指数大于8%,Ⅱ类储层成岩综合指数为2%～8%,Ⅲ类储层成岩综合指数小于2%。因此,可以利用成岩综合指数定量评价储层孔隙结构。     

基于小波变换的反射光谱分析在蛇绿岩识别中的应用研究——以西准噶尔地区为例

介绍了基于小波变换的反射光谱分析技术的基本理论和方法;运用此技术手段对克拉玛依市白碱滩区西侧地区40条岩石野外光谱曲线数据进行了定量处理,总结并分析了蛇绿岩套中常见典型岩石(基性混杂岩、辉长岩、橄榄岩、蛇纹石)的光谱特征及其产生原因.最后,结合ETM+波段范围提出了适用于西准噶尔地区多波段遥感影像光谱角(Spectral Angle Mapper,SAM)提取模型,从遥感影像上识别蛇绿岩分布奠定了良好的基础.