大地形变监测预报在中国西部防震减灾事业中的基础作用

本文以巩固和发挥大地形变地震监测预报基础地位和作用、积极推进中国西部防震减灾事业可持续性和协调性发展为主旨,回顾了西部地区20世纪70年代初至“九五”前期大地形变监测与地震预测研究工作基础,介绍了“九五”后期至今大地形变监测与地震预测研究的主要进展,并对该领域发展中所面临的一些问题进行了初步探讨。     

On the variability of the flow along the Meso-American Barrier Reef system: a numerical model study of the influence of the Caribbean current and eddies

A high resolution (3–8 km grid), 3D numerical ocean model of the West Caribbean Sea (WCS) is used to investigate the variability and the forcing of flows near the Meso-American Barrier Reef System (MBRS) which runs along the coasts of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala and Honduras. Mesoscale variations in velocity and temperature along the reef were found in seasonal model simulations and in observations; these variations are associated with meandering of the Caribbean current (CC) and the propagation of Caribbean eddies. Diagnostic calculations and a simple assimilation technique are combined to infer the dynamically adjusted flow associated with particular eddies. The results demonstrate that when a cyclonic eddy (negative sea surface height anomaly (SSHA)) is found near the MBRS the CC shifts offshore, the cyclonic circulation in the Gulf of Honduras (GOH) intensifies, and a strong southward flow results along the reef. However, when an anticyclonic eddy (positive SSHA) is found near the reef, the CC moves onshore and the flow is predominantly westward across the reef. The model results help to explain how drifters are able to propagate in a direction opposite to the mean circulation when eddies cause a reversal of the coastal circulation. The effect of including the Meso-American Lagoon west of the Belize Reef in the model topography was also investigated, to show the importance of having accurate coastal topography in determining the variations of transports across the MBRS. The variations found in transports across the MBRS (on seasonal and mesoscale time scales) may have important consequences for biological activities along the reef such as spawning aggregations; better understanding the nature of these variations will help ongoing efforts in coral reef conservation and maintaining the health of the ecosystem in the region.     

REE and (э)Nd of clay fractions in sediments from the eastern Pacific Ocean: Evidence for clay sources

Clay fractions in the non-calcareous surface sediments from the eastern Pacific were analyzed for clay minerals, REE and 143Nd/144Nd. Montmorillonite/illite ratio (M/I ratio), total REE contents ((REE), LREE/HREE ratio and cerium anomaly (бCe) may effectively indicate the genesis of clay minerals. Clay fractions with M/I ratio >1, бCe (0.85, (REE (400 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio (4, and REE patterns similar to those of pelagic sediments are terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions and contain more autogenetic montmorillonite. Clay fractions with M/I ratio <1, бCe=0.86 to 1.5, ΣREE=200 to 350 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio (6 and REE distribution patterns similar to that of China loess are identified as terrigenous clay fraction. The 143Nd/144Nd ratios or (э)Nd values of clay fractions inherit the features of terrigenous sources of clay minerals. Clay fractions are divided into 4 types according to (э)Nd values. Terrigenous clay minerals of type I with the (э)Nd values of -8 to -6 originate mainly from North American fluvial deposits. Those of type II with the (э)Nd values of -9 to -7 are mainly from the East Asia and North American fluvial deposits. Those of type III with (э)Nd values of -6 to -3 could come from the central and eastern Pacific volcanic islands. Those of type IV with (э)Nd values of -13 to -12 may be from East Asia eolian. The terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions show patchy distributions, indicating that there are volcanic or hot-spot activities in the eastern Pacific plate, while the terrigenous clay fractions cover a large part of the study area, proving that the terrigenous clay minerals are dominant in the eastern Pacific.     

Global cotton and local environmental management: the political ecology of rich and poor small-hold farmers in southern Mali

This study examines the hypothesis that poor households engage in less sustainable soil management practices than rich households in a similar socioeconomic environment. This broad objective is explored in Mali's southern cotton belt through three specific research questions. First, is there empirical evidence to support the claim that poor households engage in less sustainable soil management practices than rich households? Second, what local and extra-local factors influence household agricultural management approaches in southern Mali? Third, what broader scale political and economic processes are linked to the factors that influence local-level agricultural management approaches? The author reports that soil quality measures on the farms of rich and poor households are not significantly different, refuting the conventional wisdom that the wealthy are better managers of the environment. A variety of environmentally deleterious practices are associated with export-oriented cotton production, an activity more vigorously pursued by wealthy than poor farmers. Finally, the focus on poverty in international environment and development discourse has allowed the government of Mali to avoid a serious debate on the sustainability of cotton production. The study's findings are based on household interviews describing agricultural management practices, an analysis of farm field soil measures, and discussions with donors and national policymakers.     

ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY OF THE EPIC CROP MODEL FOR USE IN THE STUDY OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN WEST AFRICA

The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model, developed by scientists of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), has been successfully applied to the study of erosion, water pollution, crop growth and production in the US but is yet to be introduced for serious research purposes in other countries or regions. This paper reports on the applicability of the EPIC 8120 crop model for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop productivity in sub‐Saharan West Africa, using Nigeria as the case study. Among the crops whose productivity has been successfully simulated with this model are five of West Africa's staple food crops: maize, millet, sorghum (guinea corn), rice and cassava. Thus, using the model, the sensitivities of maize, sorghum and millet to seasonal rainfall were demonstrated with coefficients of correlation significant at over 98 per cent confidence limits. The validation tests were based on a comparison of the observed and the model‐generated yields of rice and maize. The main problems of validation relate to the multiplicity of crop varieties with contrasting performances under similar field conditions. There are also the difficulties in representing micro‐environments in the model. Thus, some gaps appear between the observed and the simulated yields, arising from data or model deficiencies, or both. Based on the results of the sensitivity and validation tests, the EPIC crop model could be satisfactorily employed in assessing the impacts of and adaptations to climate variability and climate change. Its use for the estimation of production and the assessment of vulnerabilities need to be pursued with further field surveys and field experimentation.     

Re-exposed basement landforms in the Disko region, West Greenland — disregarded data for estimation of glacial erosion and uplift modelling

Classifications of large-scale landscapes in Greenland have traditionally been based on type and intensity of glacial erosion, with the general idea that present landforms are mainly the result of erosion from ice sheets and glaciers. However, on southern Disko and in areas offshore in Disko Bugt, a basement surface has preserved remnants of weathered gneiss and pre-Paleocene landforms, recently exhumed from Paleocene basalt. Isolated hills and lineaments have been mapped in a digital terrain model and aerial photographs. Offshore have hills been mapped from seismic lines. The medium size bedrock forms on southern Disko as tors, clefts and roche moutonées have been studied in the field. Remnant saprolites were inventoried, sampled and analysed according to grain size and clay mineralogy. The basement surface retains saprolites up to 8 m thick in close relation to the cover rocks. The landforms in the basement rocks belong essentially to an etched surface only slightly remodelled by glacial erosion and, below the highest coastline, also by wave action. The outline of hills is governed by two lineament directions, ENE–WSW representing the schistocity of the gneiss and NW–SE fracture zones. These structures are thus interpreted to have been exploited by the deep weathering while the frequent N–S lineaments have not and thus might be younger. Main ice-flow has been from the NE and has resulted in plucking of SW facing lee sides, however the resulting bedrock forms are mainly controlled by structures and orientation of joints. The identification of re-exposed sub-Paleocene etch forms on Disko and the hills of similar size offshore, forming a hilly relief, have implications for identification of a hilly relief south of Disko Bugt, its relation to younger planation surfaces as well as for conclusions of uplift events.     

Use of fallout 137Cs for documenting the chronology of overbank sediments from the river Sava, Croatia, and interpreting their geochemical patterns

This paper attempts to determine the impact of former Pb-Zn-Ba mining activities in Slovenian drainage basin on overbank sediments of the Sava river (West Croatia). Among the four studied sequences (S7, S8, S9, S10), the most upstream profile S7 showed the most pronounced impact of ore mining. Mercury was enriched more than 100-fold; Pb and Zn had a strong positive correlation (r > 0.99). Two factor models clearly revealed the Pb-Ba-Hg association in the lower-lying carbonate (CA) population of all four profiles, but only in the overlying silicate (SI) population of profile S7. Factor analysis confirmed this association in the total sediment (90 samples) as well as separately in the CA (33 samples) and SI (57 samples) populations. Based on a comparison with an undisturbed soil profile, the vertical distribution of ¹³⁷Cs in profile S7 was interpreted to be the combination of caesium deposition caused by a flood in 1964 and by post-depositional redistribution.     

‘Boundary’ in Ancient Persian Tradition of Statehood

It is universally accepted that the need for defining precise lines of separation and points of contacts between states is the byproduct of the emergence of nation-states and ‘world economy’ in the 19th century Europe. Nevertheless, it is hard to overlook the fact that these modern notions are rooted in periods prior to the emergence in Europe of nation-states. There are indications that ancient civilizations were familiar with the notion of ‘state’ in connection with the concepts of territory and boundary. Ancient texts reveal that this basic principle existed in ancient Persian literature in respect of matters of state, territory, and boundary. Similarly, the likelihood exists that these Persian notions could have influenced Roman civilization. It is widely believed that a combination of ancient Greco-Roman and Persian civilizations is a major contributor to what culturally constitutes ‘West’. Later in the Sassanid period the inter-linked notions of state, territory, and boundary developed substantially, coming quite close to their contemporary forms. On the other hand, considering that ‘justice’ was the corner stone of ancient Persian Political philosophy, the idea that ancient Persian spatial arrangement might have contributed to the evolution of the concept of democracy in the West may not be too difficult to contemplate.