汶川8.0级地震前地震空间相关长度变化特征

分析了汶川8.0级地震前的地震空间长度的时空演变。在计算空间相关长度过程中采用长轴与孕震区主要断裂走向一致的椭圆型空间窗,并设计了优化程序。在本次特大地震前观测到了增长的地震空间相关长度。利用合成地震目录对结果进行了显著性检验,结果否定了零假设,表明观察到的模型不是由随机数据干扰造成的,这一观点的置信水平被证实为93.9%。     

2008年汶川MS8.0地震对周边断层地震活动的影响

为分析2008年5月12日四川汶川M_S8.0级地震对周边断层地震活动的影响,本文首先基于Burgers体黏滞松弛模型计算汶川M_S8.0级地震引起的库仑应力动态演化,分析认为2008年汶川M_S8.0级地震在周边断层上引起的库仑应力显著增加的主要有四个断层段,分别为鲜水河断裂道孚-康定段、东昆仑断裂东段玛曲段、青川断裂和龙门山断裂南段.而且震后4年内黏滞松弛引起的库仑应力变化量可能与同震变化相当,相当于再发生一次汶川地震所造成的影响,因此震后效应在分析强震影响时不应忽略.本文基于强震引起的库仑应力变化动态演化,结合背景地震发生率、由Dieterich(1994)模型给出地震发生概率,结合相关构造地质、历史地震、余震活动等方面资料的综合分析认为,上述4个断裂段地震危险性由高到低依次为鲜水河断裂道孚-康定段、龙门山断裂南段、东昆仑断裂东段玛曲段和青川断裂.     

中地壳的水和水岩相互作用实验及其地球物理涵义

本文重点报道了高温高压下流体与流体-岩石相互作用实验结果,提供了中地壳条件下流体性质和水岩反应速率数据.这些数据有助于理解中地壳的一些地球物理现象.作者进行了25℃~435℃和22~39 MPa条件下水-岩相互作用反应动力学实验.同时,研究水在近临界区至超临界区的性质.一般地说,中地壳大致位于10(15)至25 km的深度范围.各地的地壳厚度不同,但是中地壳高导-低速层的深度范围十分相似.中地壳的顶界温度处于300℃,底界大致为450℃范围,压力高达200 MPa以上.流体-岩石相互作用实验表明:硅酸盐矿物和岩石的硅最大溶解速率出现在300℃~400℃.此时,硅酸盐矿物格架解体.通常,地壳里普遍存在水、流体.地壳构造活动导致断裂空隙、减压、流体流动.这时,有可能导致中地壳处于300℃~450℃流体的压力减低,由超临界区进入临界态、亚临界态.这会引发强烈流动的水与岩石相互作用.溶解反应导致岩层的硅淋失,硅的强烈淋失又会导致硅酸盐矿物格架解体,岩石崩塌.同时,进一步促进流体的流动.实验表明300℃~400℃下的强烈水岩相互作用促进了岩石破坏,并有可能影响岩层的地球物理性质,如高导层出现.另外,实验和理论研究表明处于300℃~400℃流体具有高电导率性质.这些水岩相互作用会使中地壳出现高导-低速层.     

Systematic Analysis Method of Shear-Wave Splitting：SAM Software System

In order to make a more effective use of the data from regional digital seismograph networks and to promote the study on shear wave splitting and its application to earthquake stressforecasting, SAM software system, i.e., the software on systematic analysis method of shear wave splitting has been developed. This paper introduces the design aims, system structure,function and characteristics about the SAM software system and shows some graphical interfaces of data input and result output. Lastly, it discusses preliminarily the study of shear wave splitting and its application to earthquake forecasting.     

Stress Changes Modelled for the Sequence of Strong Earthquakes in the South Iceland Seismic Zone Since 1706

The South Iceland seismic zone is, roughly speaking, situated between two sections of the mid-Atlantic ridge, i.e., the Reykjanes Ridge southwest of Iceland and the Eastern Volcanic Zone on the island. It is a transform zone, where earthquakes are expected to occur on E-W-trending left-lateral shear faults, equivalent to conjugate, N-S-oriented right-lateral, rupture planes. In fact, earthquakes take place on en-échelon N-S-oriented faults, which is indicated by the distribution of main shock intensities, aftershocks as well as by surface fault traces. The stress field continuously generated in the fault zone by opening of the adjacent ridges is computed and superimposed on the stress field changes induced by a series of 13 earthquakes (M 6) between 1706 and 2000. The level of the pre-seismic stress field is analysed as well as the size of the area under high stress. Finally, the post-seismic stress field of June 2000 is analysed, to see where high stresses might have accumulated. The modelling indicates that the rupture planes located on separated parallel N-S-striking zones are dense enough to lead to an area-wide stress release by the series of events. The obtained pre-seismic stress level for most events is high and stable with the exception of situations when several strong shocks occur over a time span of several days, i.e., display typical main shock-aftershock patterns. The size of areas under high stress aside from of the rupture plane, i.e., where no event occurs at the specific time, is of medium to small size.     

基于LAIC电场渗透和SAMI2模拟的地震-电离层扰动现象研究

地震会造成电离层电子密度扰动。 基于三维电场渗透模型和SAMI2模型, 模拟地震发生前产生的异常电场对电离层电子密度的影响。 模拟结果表明, 地震前形成的附加电流会引起电离层产生异常电场, 且异常电场值与地震震级和地震发生时间有着明显的相关。 同时异常电场会使电子产生E×B漂移, 造成电子密度扰动。 随着时间的推移, 电子密度扰动逐渐减小且扰动区域会向着靠近磁赤道方向或远离磁赤道方向漂移。     

南北地震带北段流体资料地震预测效能检验

以南北地震带北段长时间、 连续并有多次震例记录的流体观测资料为研究对象, 使用Molchan图表法对其与周边地震的关系进行了检验和分析, 计算了时间占有率、 预测效能和概率增益等参数。 结果表明, 南北地震带北段各台项的预测效能差别较大。 整体看来, 甘东南地区的观测资料检验效果较好, 表现为概率增益较大; 青海东部地区的多个测项预测效能检验结果较好, 但概率增益较小; 宁夏北部贺兰山东麓断裂附近两台项的报准率差别不大, 但概率增益、 时间占有率等却都不同。 此外, 从前兆资料变化时间上看, 短期异常和长期异常都较多, 中期异常较少。     

Evaluation of soil liquefaction in the Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake using CPT

During the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake, many sand boiling phenomena were observed in central Taiwan, which caused severe ground settlement and structure damages. According to the installed accelerograms, the peak ground surface horizontal accelerations in the liquefaction-affected areas range from 774.42 to 121.3 gal. The writers carried out an extensive investigation of soil liquefaction in this earthquake. In this paper, we present results of the CPT exploration and post-earthquake liquefaction analysis. Two hundred and seventy five (275) cone penetration test data were collected from the liquefaction-affected areas, and 46 liquefaction case histories and 88 non-liquefaction case histories were derived that can be used to evaluate the accuracy of existing liquefaction evaluation models. In addition, the strength of the liquefied soils after earthquake and the implication of its liquefaction potential in the future event are discussed.     

汶川8.0级地震前地下流体长趋势变化特征讨论

通过对汶川M_S8.0地震震中周围地区震前地下流体长期观测资料的分析表明, 震前地下流体出现了长趋势变化, 其特征是时间早、 范围广, 具有协调性以及向未来震中迁移等特征, 形态主要为趋势转折、 破年变、 加速等, 其中大多数为趋势转折变化。 进一步对比研究地壳形变、 地下流体长趋势变化发现, 地壳形变和地下流体长趋势变化迁移特征一致, 地壳形变长趋势时间较早于地下流体长趋势变化时间, 形变出现张压变化与水位变化有比较密切的关系, 即形变大部分出现缓慢压性变化或张性减缓变化, 水位大部分出现缓慢上升或下降减缓变化。 最后讨论了地下流体长趋势变化机理。