三种全球预报产品中国区近地面气温短期预报效果检验

全球气象预报产品是扩散模式、空气质量模式的重要基础资料和前提条件,其误差直接影响模拟结果的准确度。为考察不同气象预报产品的误差,选取2016年6月至2017年5月GFS、ECMWF、T639三种全球气象预报产品,利用中国2100个地面观测站数据,对预报产品中近地面气温进行了对比,并分析了其在不同季节、不同区域的特征。结果表明：在中国区域三种气象产品气温预报存在偏低预报的趋势,其均方根误差的年平均值为2.60—3.52℃,相关系数的年平均值为0.89—0.92,平均绝对误差的年平均值为1.87—2.67℃。整体而言,EC表现最佳,其余依次为GFS、T639。气温预报误差存在季节变化特征,三种产品均方根误差与平均绝对误差均表现为夏秋季优于春冬季,相关系数表现为秋冬季优于春夏季。气温预报误差存在明显的地域差异,三种气象预报产品的气温误差空间分布特征较为相似,在中国华东地区误差值表现较低,在西南地区误差较高。同时,其误差水平在中国沿海地区表现较低,在地形复杂地区表现较高。     

武汉市冬季大雪分析预报

使用常规气象观测资料和数值预报产品,分析了1951-2005年冬季发生在武汉市的大雪过程,结果表明:武汉市冬季出现积雪深度大于5 cm的天气事件的概率大约为每年2 d,主要发生在1月,其次是2月;大气层结条件是产生降雪的关键,地面冷空气、中低层江南西南急流和中层西风带低槽是决定武汉市冬季大雪的3个主要天气系统,中低层江...     

Numerical solution of the discontinuous-bottom Shallow-water Equations with hydrostatic pressure distribution at the step

Free-surface flows are usually modelled by means of the Shallow-water Equations: this system of hyperbolic equations exhibits a source term which is proportional to the product of the water depth by the bed slope, and which takes into account the effect of gravity onto fluid mass. Recently, much attention has been paid to the case in which bottom discontinuities are present in the physical domain to be represented: in this case, it is difficult to define the non-conservative product in the distributional sense. Here, the discontinuous-bottom Shallow-water Equations with hydrostatic pressure distribution at the bed step (Bernetti et al., 2006) are discussed in the context of the theory of Dal Maso et al. (1995) [9]; finally, a first-order numerical scheme is presented, which is consistent for regular solutions, and which is able to capture contact discontinuities at bottom steps. Numerous tests are presented to show the feasibility of the scheme and its ability to converge to the exact solution in the cases of smooth as well as discontinuous bed profiles.     

8.12桦南清晨局地突发短时冰雹过程分析

本文对2010年8月12日清晨桦南县发生的局地突发短时冰雹天气进行了天气成因分析,表明冷锋前强烈上升气流为冰雹云形成提供了动力条件,锋前新生对流云团发展形成冰雹云。利用雷达基本数据产品揭示了冰雹云形成发展、成熟和消散全过程的主要回波特征,并应用雷达产品对冰雹的识别及与人工识别进行对比,其产品比人工提前10分钟识别冰雹,具有很高的临近冰雹预警应用性能。     

基于 DPM 系统的风化岩软弱区定位以及性质描述

风化岩体中存在软弱区,这些软弱区导致岩体的力学性能大幅度降低.现阶段往往采用地质钻孔取样对岩体中的软弱区进行定位以及性质分析.但是,由于造价以及工期方面的原因,地质钻孔数量非常有限,这些软弱区很难被有效定位,这在分析风化岩体的力学性能中造成了很大的隐患,成为边坡、基坑设计施工过程中岩体失稳的重要原因.本文介绍了一个风化...     

Product formation from the gas-phase reactions of OH radicals and O3 with a series of monoterpenes

The formation yields of nine carbonyl products are reported from the gas-phase OH radical-initiated reactions (in the presence of NO _x ) and the O₃ reactions with seven monoterpenes. The products were identified using GC/MS and GC-FTIR and quantified by GC-FID analyses of samples collected on Tenax solid adsorbent cartridges. The identities of products from camphene, limonene and -pinene were confirmed by comparison with authentic standards. Sufficient quantities of products from the 3-carene, limonene, -pinene, sabinene and terpinolene reactions were isolated to allow structural confirmation by proton NMR spectroscopy. The measured total carbonyl formation yields ranged from non-detectable for the OH radical reaction with camphene and the O₃ reactions with 3-carene and limonene to 0.5 for the OH radical reaction with limonene and the O₃ reaction with sabinene.     

T63数值预报产品图形处理系统

用于Ｔ６３数值预报产品输出的图形系统是一个具有资料获取，数据建筑，数值内插，等值线求算，平滑，图形显示和人工干预等多种功能的实时业务系统，该系统用户界面友好，操作简便，产品内容丰富，图形分析质量高，速度快，实时性强，是进行天气预报和数值预报分析的有力工具。     

Seeing the forest for the trees: Local-level resource use and forest restitution in postsocialist Bulgaria

Recent legislation for the restitution of ownership rights to, and subsequent management of, formerly privately owned forests in postsocialist Bulgaria has focused largely albeit not exclusively on the restored forests from the perspective of timber production, that is, `forest' equals `harvestable timber resource'. Using ethnographic data collected in rural Rhodope Mountain communities, this paper presents a local-level perspective on forests and forest use, including the meaning that forests hold for local residents as a source of non-timber forest products such as mushrooms and medicinal plants, of animal pasture, and of firewood for household heating and cooking. This local social perspective is then contrasted with the timber-resource focus of the forestry legislation and subsequent planning for forest use. The scale of forest ownership – in part a function of the restitution legislation – is also addressed in relation to the practicalities of resource management. Generally, the paper demonstrates a mismatch between the postsocialist forestry legislation and local practice and conditions with regard to forests and the natural resources therein. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

我国某些矽卡岩型矿床及有关选冶产品中的钯铂

对一些矽卡岩型铜(铁)矿床的矿石及有关选冶产品中的铂族元素的研究,结果表明这类矿床伴生的钯(铂),可以富集回收,且以富钯为特征.矿床中钯(铂)与金、铜、碲成正相关关系.     

城市农产品购销网络空间结构模式

市场、农产品流、服务区是城市农产品购销网络的三个组成要素。市场是农产品流的集散地、服务区的核心,它的规模和布局不仅制约农产品流的流向和流量,而且影响到服务区的空间特性。因此,调整农产品市场的规模和布局,是城市农产品购销网络空间结构优化的重要内容。