1997–1998 El Niño off Peru: A numerical study

An eddy-resolving numerical simulation for the Peru–Chile system between 1993 and 2000 is analyzed, mainly for the 1997–1998 El Niño. Atmospheric and lateral oceanic forcings are realistic and contain a wide range of scales from days to interannual. The solution is validated against altimetric observations and the few in situ observations available. The simulated 1997–1998 El Niño closely resembles the real 1997–1998 El Niño in its time sequence of events. The two well-marked, sea-level peaks in May–June and November–December 1997 are reproduced with amplitudes close to those observed. Other sub-periods of the El Niño seem to be captured adequately. Simple dynamical analyses are performed to explain the 1997–1998 evolution of the upwelling in the model. The intensity of the upwelling appears to be determined by an interplay between alongshore, poleward advection (related to coastal trapped waves) and wind intensity, but also by the cross-shore geostrophic flow and distribution of the water masses on a scale of 1000 km or more (involving Rossby waves westward propagation and advection from equatorial currents). In particular, the delay of upwelling recovery until fall 1998 (i.e., well after the second El Niño peak) is partly due to the persistent advection of offshore stratified water toward the coast of Peru. Altimetry data suggest that these interpretations of the numerical solution also apply to the real ocean.     

综合多信息进行地震约束储层随机建模——以准噶尔盆地庄1井区J1S2^2砂组为例

针对地震约束储层随机建模中地震反演波阻抗数据体与岩相概率关系差的问题,提出综合多信息、逐级约束、多级建模的思路方法。首先以地震反演数据体约束建立地球物理特征曲线随机参数场,再以每一个地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束建立相模型,最后以优选的相模型和地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束进行储层参数建模。该方法在井距较大的开发前期评价阶段具有较好的应用效果。     

Econometric analysis of the ship demolition market

The topic of ship recycling has obtained considerable attention during the last two decades for a variety of reasons with the likelihood of the adoption of a new international convention under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This study applies econometric modeling to a unique data set to provide insight into the dynamics of the ship recycling market. The data set contains information on 51,112 ships over 100 gt and includes 748,621 events over a period of 29 years. The analysis confirms a negative relationship of earnings and a positive relationship of scrap prices for all locations while Bangladesh seems to be more sensitive to changes in earnings than the other locations and more likely demolishes larger and older vessels. The results for flag and ownership vary across scrapping locations with Malta and Cyprus indicating potential importance from a registry perspective. The overall safety profile of a vessel seems to be less important towards the probability of a ship being scrapped. Possible implementation of the convention at EU level will mostly likely affect Turkey while non-ratification of one of the major flags will most likely affect China or Bangladesh.     

Reflected and transmitted waves in a channel with side porous mattresses

The problem of wave propagation and wave damping in a channel with side porous mattresses of arbitrary shape protruding from the walls is studied. The solution was achieved by applying 3-D boundary element method and was employed to study wave field in the channel and to analyze the effect of the geometry of the mattresses and physical and hydraulic properties of porous material on wave damping. The results show that wave damping in the channel strongly depends on wave parameters, especially, on the wave number. Wave reflection and transmission decrease with increasing the wave number. The results also show that the wave field in the channel strongly depends on the geometry of the mattresses as well as on physical and hydraulic properties of porous material used to build these wave dampers. The geometry of the mattresses and physical and hydraulic properties of porous material have a moderate effect on wave reflection and a significant effect on wave transmission. The results show that wave transmission down the channel decreases with increasing the length and thickness of the mattresses. Moreover, wave transmission decreases with increasing the porosity and damping properties of porous media used to build the mattresses. The analysis shows that porous mattresses protruding from the channel walls are very efficient in damping water waves propagating down the channel and may be built in channels to reduce high waves and achieve desired wave conditions. Theoretical results are in reasonable agreement with experimental data.     

44 years hindcast of sea level in the Atlantic Coast of Europe

The sea level of Northeast Atlantic Ocean is calculated for the period between 1958 and 2001 using a state-of-the-art barotropic model with a grid size of 10′ × 15′ (long × lat). The model includes astronomic effects, considering seven components of the tide, and the meteorological effects of wind and atmospheric pressure, allowing obtaining the astronomic tide, the atmospheric residuals and the non-linear addition of both components of sea level.     

Review of recent findings on the water masses and circulation in the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

Recent findings on water masses, biogeochemical tracers, deep currents and basin-scale circulation in the East/Japan Sea, and numerical modeling of its circulation are reviewed. Warming continues up to 2007 despite an episode of bottom water formation in the winter of 2000–2001. Water masses have definitely changed since the 1970s and further changes are expected due to the continuation of warming. Accumulation of current data in deep waters of the East/Japan Sea reveals that the circulation in the East/Japan Sea is primarily cyclonic with sub-basin scale cyclonic and anticyclonic cells in the Ulleung Basin (Tsushima Basin). Our understanding of the circulation of intermediate water masses has been deepened through high-resolution numerical studies, and the implementation of data assimilation has had initial success. However, the East/Japan Sea is unique in terms of the fine vertical structures of physical and biogeochemical properties of cold water mass measured at the highest precision and their rapid change with the global warming, so that full understanding of the structures and their change requires in-depth process studies with continuous monitoring programs.     

Two-dimensional,two-phase granular sediment transport model with applications to scouring downstream of an apron

We present a two-dimensional, two-phase model for non-cohesive sediment transport. This model solves concentration-weighted averaged equations of motion for both fluid and sediment phases. The model accounts for the interphase momentum transfer by considering drag forces. A collisional theory is used to compute the sediment stresses, while a two-equation (k–ε) fluid turbulence closure is implemented. A benchmark sediment transport problem concerning the scouring downstream of an apron is carried out as an example and numerical results agree with existing experimental data.     

Stochastic evaluation of fluvial to marginal marine sealing facies

Hydrocarbon top seal analyses are particularly difficult in fluvial and marginal marine settings. Although these settings often contain beds comprised of a low-permeability, clay-rich lithology associated with high quality seals, their presence does not guarantee an effective seal because individual beds within the stratal unit may be laterally discontinuous. Lateral facies changes, truncation of fine-grained beds, or the presence of crevasse splays may provide cross-stratal migration pathways, reducing the effective sealing capacity to a magnitude less than the closure height.     

A control-volume finite-element method for three-dimensional multiphase basin modeling

In this paper we describe a 3D control-volume finite-element method to solve numerically the coupled partial differential equations (PDEs) governing geological processes involved in the evolution of sedimentary basins. These processes include sediment deposition and deformation, hydrocarbon generation, multiphase fluid flow, and heat transfer in deforming porous media.