油气包裹体在油气地质研究中的应用--概念、分类、形成机制及研究意义

油气包裹体己成为油气成藏研究的有力工具,在划分油气运移充注期次、确定油气藏的形成时间、反映油气的成熟度及来源等方面均有重要的应用价值。近年来,利用油气包裹体及其共生的盐水溶液包裹体估算油气藏形成时的pVT条件是油气包裹体研究中的一个新热点,它为更准确地计算油气藏形成的温度一压力条件提供了一种独立的、更准确的技术手段。研究表明,包裹体岩相学和流体体系的热力学研究仍将是今后的发展重点。油气包裹体的pVT模拟技术尚处于初始阶段,两种软件（VTFlinc和FIT）的准确性和精确性虽有待进一步提高,但已经成为今后一个重要的发展方向。     

Analytical investigations of seismic responses for reinforced concrete bridge columns subjected to strong near-fault ground motion

Strong near-fault ground motion, usually caused by the fault-rupture and characterized by a pulse-like velocity- wave form, often causes dramatic instantaneous seismic energy (Jadhav and Jangid 2006). Some reinforced concrete (RC) bridge columns, even those built according to ductile design principles, were damaged in the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. Thus, it is very important to evaluate the seismic response of a RC bridge column to improve its seismic design and prevent future damage. Nonlinear time history analysis using step-by-step integration is capable of tracing the dynamic response of a structure during the entire vibration period and is able to accommodate the pulsing wave form. However, the accuracy of the numerical results is very sensitive to the modeling of the nonlinear load-deformation relationship of the structural member. FEMA 273 and ATC-40 provide the modeling parameters for structural nonlinear analyses of RC beams and RC columns. They use three parameters to define the plastic rotation angles and a residual strength ratio to describe the nonlinear load- deformation relationship of an RC member. Structural nonlinear analyses are performed based on these parameters. This method provides a convenient way to obtain the nonlinear seismic responses of RC structures. However, the accuracy of the numerical solutions might be further improved. For this purpose, results from a previous study on modeling of the static pushover analyses for RC bridge columns (Sung et al. 2005) is adopted for the nonlinear time history analysis presented herein to evaluate the structural responses excited by a near-fault ground motion. To ensure the reliability of this approach, the numerical results were compared to experimental results. The results confirm that the proposed approach is valid.     

Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

Physical and finite element modeling of lateral stability of offshore skirted gravity structures subjected to iceberg impact load

Static stability mainly against sliding of a typical, relatively large skirted gravity structure was investigated using three-dimensional finite element modeling. The numerical model was validated against centrifuge test results. A specific set of dimensions was chosen to model a typical skirted gravity structure in a centrifuge with two types of foundation soils: uniform saturated sand and a clay zone sandwiched between two sand layers. Soil shear strength parameters used in the finite element models were estimated from in-flight cone penetration resistance measurements obtained in the centrifuge. Numerical parametric studies were conducted using the validated finite element model. The parameters included were the depth and strength of the clay zone and the inclination of external load. It is shown that a relatively simple three-dimensional finite element model was effective in providing information that would be needed to design such a critical and expensive offshore structure. Basic Mohr-Coulomb strength parameters and moduli based on cone penetration resistance measurements and published empirical correlations were appropriate in modeling the soils in the finite element simulations.     

1997–1998 El Niño off Peru: A numerical study

An eddy-resolving numerical simulation for the Peru–Chile system between 1993 and 2000 is analyzed, mainly for the 1997–1998 El Niño. Atmospheric and lateral oceanic forcings are realistic and contain a wide range of scales from days to interannual. The solution is validated against altimetric observations and the few in situ observations available. The simulated 1997–1998 El Niño closely resembles the real 1997–1998 El Niño in its time sequence of events. The two well-marked, sea-level peaks in May–June and November–December 1997 are reproduced with amplitudes close to those observed. Other sub-periods of the El Niño seem to be captured adequately. Simple dynamical analyses are performed to explain the 1997–1998 evolution of the upwelling in the model. The intensity of the upwelling appears to be determined by an interplay between alongshore, poleward advection (related to coastal trapped waves) and wind intensity, but also by the cross-shore geostrophic flow and distribution of the water masses on a scale of 1000 km or more (involving Rossby waves westward propagation and advection from equatorial currents). In particular, the delay of upwelling recovery until fall 1998 (i.e., well after the second El Niño peak) is partly due to the persistent advection of offshore stratified water toward the coast of Peru. Altimetry data suggest that these interpretations of the numerical solution also apply to the real ocean.     

综合多信息进行地震约束储层随机建模——以准噶尔盆地庄1井区J1S2^2砂组为例

针对地震约束储层随机建模中地震反演波阻抗数据体与岩相概率关系差的问题,提出综合多信息、逐级约束、多级建模的思路方法。首先以地震反演数据体约束建立地球物理特征曲线随机参数场,再以每一个地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束建立相模型,最后以优选的相模型和地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束进行储层参数建模。该方法在井距较大的开发前期评价阶段具有较好的应用效果。     

Econometric analysis of the ship demolition market

The topic of ship recycling has obtained considerable attention during the last two decades for a variety of reasons with the likelihood of the adoption of a new international convention under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This study applies econometric modeling to a unique data set to provide insight into the dynamics of the ship recycling market. The data set contains information on 51,112 ships over 100 gt and includes 748,621 events over a period of 29 years. The analysis confirms a negative relationship of earnings and a positive relationship of scrap prices for all locations while Bangladesh seems to be more sensitive to changes in earnings than the other locations and more likely demolishes larger and older vessels. The results for flag and ownership vary across scrapping locations with Malta and Cyprus indicating potential importance from a registry perspective. The overall safety profile of a vessel seems to be less important towards the probability of a ship being scrapped. Possible implementation of the convention at EU level will mostly likely affect Turkey while non-ratification of one of the major flags will most likely affect China or Bangladesh.     

44 years hindcast of sea level in the Atlantic Coast of Europe

The sea level of Northeast Atlantic Ocean is calculated for the period between 1958 and 2001 using a state-of-the-art barotropic model with a grid size of 10′ × 15′ (long × lat). The model includes astronomic effects, considering seven components of the tide, and the meteorological effects of wind and atmospheric pressure, allowing obtaining the astronomic tide, the atmospheric residuals and the non-linear addition of both components of sea level.     

Review of recent findings on the water masses and circulation in the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

Recent findings on water masses, biogeochemical tracers, deep currents and basin-scale circulation in the East/Japan Sea, and numerical modeling of its circulation are reviewed. Warming continues up to 2007 despite an episode of bottom water formation in the winter of 2000–2001. Water masses have definitely changed since the 1970s and further changes are expected due to the continuation of warming. Accumulation of current data in deep waters of the East/Japan Sea reveals that the circulation in the East/Japan Sea is primarily cyclonic with sub-basin scale cyclonic and anticyclonic cells in the Ulleung Basin (Tsushima Basin). Our understanding of the circulation of intermediate water masses has been deepened through high-resolution numerical studies, and the implementation of data assimilation has had initial success. However, the East/Japan Sea is unique in terms of the fine vertical structures of physical and biogeochemical properties of cold water mass measured at the highest precision and their rapid change with the global warming, so that full understanding of the structures and their change requires in-depth process studies with continuous monitoring programs.