Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Chemical forms of heavy metal contaminants in sediments of Miyun reservoir

The chemical forms, spatial distribution and sources of As, Hg, Cd, Pb and Zn in sediments of the Miyun reservoir were studied. The results of sequential extraction demonstrate that most of As, Pb and Zn were bound to the residual fraction, Hg was associated with the sulfide fraction while Cd was associated with the carbonate fraction and the residual fraction. On the vertical profiles the concentrations of the heavy metals in total and each fractions mostly decreased with increasing depths in sediments, suggesting that the heavy metals input from the upstream watershed increases yearly. Summation of the residual fraction, the sulfide fraction and the carbonate fraction accounts for 60.03%―85.60% of the total heavy metal contents in the sediments, which represent the geochemical background values of the elements and relate closely to soil erosion. Results of the main factor analysis show that most sediments of the reservoir come from the upstream soil erosion, the point source pollution and domestic waste. Moreover, the microbial activities taking place on the sediment-water interface are also one of the major factors to cause the increasing content of the organic matter fraction and the iron-manganese oxide fraction. Environmental change of the reservoir water could make the removability of the heavy metals increase, leading to the increase of their concentrations in pore water in sediments, and imperiling water quality of the reservoir.     

基于高通量测序的表层水体纤毛虫多样性评估方法比较与优化

基于扩增子的高通量测序技术广泛应用于微型生物多样性的研究, 不同的测序手段和数据分析流程, 影响着微型生物多样性与群落结构的分析结果。本研究以易于形态鉴定的砂壳纤毛虫作为研究对象, 比较DNA测序、RNA测序和形态学方法检获的多样性和物种组成等, 探究序列分析流程中关键步骤: 嵌合体处理、可操作分类单元分析方法选择、合并相似分类单元以及去除稀有类群等对多样性结果的影响。研究结果显示无论基于DNA还是RNA的分子手段与形态学方法检获的主要物种基本一致, 与DNA测序相比, RNA测序检获的物种数少, 但差异不显著。基于97%以上相似度聚类和单核苷酸变异所得群落结构相似, 无显著差异; 且所有分析方法都能在一定程度上反映出自然界中不同类群的相对丰度。相较于单核苷酸变异和其他相似度阈值, 99%相似度下聚类所得多样性更为接近形态学结果。去除嵌合体和稀有类群(去除阈值: DNA测序0.05%; RNA测序0.07%), 可明显改善分子多样性虚高的问题。本研究为纤毛虫等真核微生物的分子多样性研究提供了科学的数据分析流程, 对未来真核微生物多样性研究具有指导意义。     

基于GIS的北京山区优势林分生态位分析

应用生态位理论,以北京山区森林资源为研究对象,分析优势林分的空间分布及其资源利用和环境适应能力的差异。基于GIS方法,建立优势林分空间分布数据库以及资源梯度信息数据库,分别采用Levins公式和Smith公式,在水分、热量、光照和土壤质量4维环境因子梯度上测定了研究区8个优势林分的生态位宽度,采用Pianka公式测定生态位重叠。结果表明:Smith公式考虑资源可利用性,得到的生态位宽度更能客观地反映优势林分资源空间利用程度;研究区各优势林分重叠度普遍较大,反映了对环境要求的相似性及资源共享的趋势性。     

长山群岛港口地域组合空间结构演化定量分析

在国内外相关研究文献综述的基础上,构建了港口联系强度指数和综合基尼系数,对1986~2004 年长山群 岛港口地域组合空间结构的演化特征进行定量分析,认为从1986 年到2004 年,大长山港口组合单元一直是长山 群岛最重要的门户港,长山群岛港口地域组合整体上看是趋向集中。并对长山群岛陆岛连接方案进行论证,对陆岛 连接工程建设后长山群岛港口地域组合空间结构进行情景分析,“大连———长山群岛”之间的连接、联系方式、途径 发生了变化,这将使长山群岛港口地域组合的空间结构大为改观。对长山群岛港口地域组合空间结构的演化趋势 进行预测。     

滇东北松梁铅锌矿床控矿断裂构造岩微量元素的R型因子分析及其地质意义

通过因子分析这种常用的多元统计方法来揭示元素之间、样品之问以及与地质作用之间的相互关系,了解其中蕴藏着丰富的成矿信息,为研究成矿物质来源和矿床成因提供依据.在研究滇东北巧家松梁铅锌矿床地质特征的基础,以其中Ⅰ号矿体的控矿断裂(F5断裂)内的构造岩为R型因子,得到4组元素组合因子并综合成矿地质条件因子进行分析,结果表明:该矿床严格受构造控制,碳酸盐化蚀变和铅、锌矿化发生在不同的成矿阶段;成矿流体并非完全来自地层,主要来源于深源流体;铅锌等成矿物质具有"多源性",部分来自于地层(白云岩),部分来自于与基底岩石有联系的成矿流体.客矿断裂带内的构造岩裂隙发育,铅锌成矿流体有选择性地沿碎基多、破碎强烈的裂隙充填胶结成矿,矿床应该属赋存于碳酸盐岩中的热液型铅锌矿床.     

关于间接测定碘的分析方法研究

用硝基苯萃取[Cd（Phen）3]^2＋I2^-离子对,再用盐酸反萃取,利用氢化物发生-原子荧光光谱法测定镉的含量,从而间接测定碘。实验在pH=5．2的NaAc-HAc缓冲体系下进行,优化了还原剂KBH;中邻菲罗啉的浓度,镉溶液用量,萃取剂硝基苯的用量,反萃取盐酸的酸度,并制备碘的标准曲线,其线性相关系数R2≥0．9942,线性范围0～10ng／mL,精密度为8．5％,检出限0．80ng／mL,利用标准曲线测出水样中碘的浓度为17．78ng／mL,结果令人满意。实验表明,开发原子荧光光谱间接分析方法,使其能够准确测量更多种类的元素,有着十分积极的意义,同时也能够促进该方法得到更广范的应用。     

郑州市大雾气候特点及一次个例分析

为了了解近20 a郑州市大雾的时空变化特征,根据1980-2005年郑州市大雾观测记录,统计分析了这一时期郑州市大雾的变化特点及产生大雾时的气象要素特征;并利用河南省地面和探空观测资料以及NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,从要素场、大气稳定度等方面,对2007年12月25-27日郑州市大雾形成原因进行了分析.结果表明:郑州市年雾日数呈下降趋势,每月都可以出现大雾,但12月最多,6月最少.降水后较大的相对湿度、稳定的大气层结以及近地层较小风速等是大雾形成的必要条件.     

Desert vegetation and timing of solar radiation

Timing and amount of solar radiation were examined as factors influencing the distribution of seven perennial plants on a small mountain located in the Chihuahuan Desert. Average direct beam solar radiation fluxes at differing times throughout the day and year were estimated with computer calculations. Principal components analysis was used to reduce the number of solar radiation parameters and include the maximum available information with a manageable number of variables. The remaining solar radiation parameters were compared to plant distributions using redundancy analysis and generalized additive models. Unimodal, bimodal, and monotonic responses were all found depending upon the species and solar radiation parameter. Niche separation at this location depends upon the timing as well as the amount of solar radiation.