"虚拟水"理论及其在中国的实践应用初步研究

“虚拟水”是国际上20世纪90年代初提出来的一个新概念,它主要是指缺水国家通过进口粮食而实现本国的水资源安全。中东和北非地区事实上已经实施了“虚拟水”战略,以保障当地的水资源安全。中国疆域辽阔,水资源分布时空不均衡性明显,通过对2000年中国各省(市)进出口粮食情况的分析发现,中国各省(市)之间已存在“虚拟水”现象,将各省(市)“虚拟水”进出口量与当地的水资源情况进行对比分析,从中可以发现中国各省(市)进出口“虚拟水”有4种表现形式,出现这些表现形式有多方面的原因。     

The public trust doctrine and critical legal geographies of water in California

Legal processes shape how water resources are allocated, regulated, distributed, and governed. This paper examines the public trust doctrine, a legal principle that addresses the state’s role in governing natural resources by requiring states to manage certain bodies of water and their shorelines for the good of the public. The paper focuses on how the public trust doctrine has been used—with varying degrees of success—to protect water bodies by contesting the diversion and transfer of water in California. The paper compares how the doctrine was applied in two cases: Mono Lake and the Salton Sea, two California lakes that have been threatened by water diversions and transfers. Advocates at Mono Lake successfully used the public trust doctrine for environmental protection, while public trust was an unsuccessful strategy at the Salton Sea. The paper examines issues of nonequilibrium ecosystems, natural versus artificial ecosystems, and wasteful versus reasonable uses of water.By investigating why one case was deemed eligible for public trust protections while the other was not, this paper examines how discursive constructions of nature are embedded in and enacted by legal institutions and how these constructions of nature impact the implementation of legal protections of natural resources. In examining the use of the public trust doctrine in California, the paper examines both the potential and the limitations of the public trust in practice, showing how legal processes and institutions can be used to protect public interests in natural resources but also how particular environmental narratives are reinforced through these institutions.     

Contested hydrosocial territories and disputed water governance: Struggles and competing claims over the Ilisu Dam development in southeastern Turkey

Dam development in southeastern Turkey is a highly-disputed issue, fanned by the Turkish–Kurdish conflict, socio-environmental and historical–cultural concerns, and international geopolitical interests. This paper focuses on discussions around the Ilisu Dam and shows how different actor coalitions imagine different hydrosocial territories regarding this mega-hydraulic project currently under construction. Imaginaries, counter-imaginaries and endeavours to materialize them go far beyond technical projects, portraying the dam to (re)configure the territory physically, ecologically, socio-economically, symbolically and discursively. The paper embeds competing hydro-territorial constructs and claims within an analysis of governmentality and the multi-scalar and multi-issue politics of dam opponents.     

Spatially explicit assessment of water embodied in European trade: A product-level multi-regional input-output analysis

Responsible water management in an era of globalised supply chains needs to consider both local and regional water balances and international trade. In this paper, we assess the water footprints of total final demand in the EU-27 at a very detailed product level and spatial scale—an important step towards informed water policy. We apply the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model EXIOBASE, including water data, to track the distribution of water use along product supply chains within and across countries. This enables the first spatially-explicit MRIO analysis of water embodied in Europe’s external trade for almost 11,000 watersheds world-wide, tracing indirect (“virtual”) water consumption in one country back to those watersheds where the water was actually extracted. We show that the EU-27 indirectly imports large quantities of blue and green water via international trade of products, most notably processed crop products, and these imports far exceed the water used from domestic sources. The Indus, Danube and Mississippi watersheds are the largest individual contributors to the EU-27’s final water consumption, which causes large environmental impacts due to water scarcity in both the Indus and Mississippi watersheds. We conclude by sketching out policy options to ensure that sustainable water management within and outside European borders is not compromised by European consumption.     

中国中东部冬季霾日的形成与东亚冬季风和大气湿度的关系

利用1961-2013年中国地面台站长期观测资料和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,以华北、江淮和华南为研究区,分析了中国中东部冬季霾日的形成与东亚冬季风以及大气湿度的关系。结果表明:(1)冬季霾日与东亚冬季风强度成显著的负相关。首先,东亚冬季风强度的减弱使得地面风速减小,进而导致冬季霾日增多。其中,华北7-8 m/s最大风速日数和江淮6-8 m/s最大风速日数的减少,及华南≤2 m/s最大风速日数的增多对各区冬季霾日的增多作用较大。其次,东亚冬季风减弱引起冬季气温的持续升高,易导致冬季霾日的增多,这在华北地区较之在江淮和华南更为明显。(2)由于气候变暖,冬季气温升高,使得近地面相对湿度减小。在江淮和华南地区,冬季霾日的增多与近地面相对湿度的减小显著相关,而在华北地区这种相关较弱。(3)冬季气温升高也有利于大气层结稳定度的增强,3个区域冬季霾日的增多均与大气层结稳定度的增强显著相关,特别是与对流层中低层(850-500 hPa)大气饱和度的降低显著相关。(4)冬季霾日数变化与区域水汽输送关系密切。其中,华北地区的冬季霾日数与水汽总收入成显著正相关,江淮地区与纬向水汽收入成显著正相关,与经向水汽收入成显著负相关,华南地区与经向水汽收入成显著负相关。     

Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971–2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18–33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11–14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41–51% (RCP8.5–SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.     

慢特征分析法在气象上的应用进展

气候系统具有非平稳特征,根本原因在于其外强迫随时间发生改变,因此外部驱动力的分析对于理解气候系统的动力学特征至关重要,而如何有效提取系统外部驱动信息是一个亟待解决的前沿科学问题。最近几年,在生物神经学领域中应用的一种提取非平稳信号中外强迫信息的方法——慢特征分析法(Slow Feature Analysis,SFA),在气象领域中也得到了初步成功的尝试,结果显示出此方法对气候系统的外强迫信息分析及有关动力学机制的探究有较好的应用前景。本文主要介绍SFA方法的理论思想及实施步骤,并通过一个理想的非平稳时间序列检验其提取外强迫信息的能力,结果证明在衰减的Logistic模型中,可利用SFA算法提取出模型中的外强迫,且与真实外强迫的相关系数可达0.99;此外,还介绍将该方法应用于Arosa臭氧时间序列,分析其提取的外强迫信息的动力学特征;并介绍了在气候时间序列建模中引入外强迫因子的预测效果。     

1991年5-7月江淮洪涝:水汽和冷空气的作用比较

对1991年5-7月江淮流域持续性暴雨的环流异常进行分析,比较造成此次洪涝的水汽输送和冷空气活动重要性。结果表明：（1）东亚大槽维持在中国东北上空发展明显,同时鄂霍次克海上空没有建立强大阻高,这种形势有利于冷空气持续向南侵袭,盛行经向环流。此外,低纬度地区,西太平洋副热带高压主体位置于常年同期相比,明显偏西、偏强,有利于暖湿气流沿副热带高压北上到达江淮流域,与北方冷空气辐合形成强降水。（2）通过定义I_T和I_q分别表征温度与水汽对降水的贡献,发现此次江淮流域地区强降水是由对流层低层水汽异常增多和气温异常偏低共同造成的,作用基本相当。     

Landscape pattern and transition under natural and anthropogenic disturbance in an arid region of northwestern China

There is a pressing need to determine the relationships between driving variables and landscape transformations. Human activities shape landscapes and turn them into complex assemblages of highly diverse structures. Other factors, including climate and topography, also play significant roles in landscape transitions, and identifying the interactions among the variables is critical to environmental management. This study analyzed the configurations and spatial-temporal processes of landscape changes from 1998 to 2011 under different anthropogenic disturbances, identified the main variables that determine the landscape patterns and transitions, and quantified the relationships between pairs of driver sets. Landsat images of Baicheng and Tekes from 1998, 2006 and 2011 were used to classify landscapes by supervised classification. Redundancy analysis (RDA) and variation partitioning were performed to identify the main driving forces and to quantify the unique, shared, and total explained variation of the sets of variables. The results indicate that the proportions of otherwise identical landscapes in Baicheng and Tekes were very different. The area of the grassland in Tekes was much larger than that of the cropland; however, the differences between the grassland and cropland in Baicheng were not as pronounced. Much of the grassland in Tekes was located in an area that was near residents, whereas most of the grassland in Baicheng was far from residents. The slope, elevation, annual precipitation, annual temperature, and distance to the nearest resident were strong driving forces influencing the patterns and transitions of the landscapes. The results of the variation partitioning indicated complex interrelationships among all of the pairs of driver sets. All of the variable sets had significant explanatory roles, most of which had both unique and shared variations with the others. The results of this study can assist policy makers and planners in implementing sustainable landscape management and effective protection strategies.     

Water-rock-tailings interactions and sources of sulfur and metals in the subtropical mining region of Taxco,Guerrero (southern Mexico): A multi-isotopic approach

Multi-isotope (H, O, S, Sr, Pb) systems coupled with conventional (major and trace element) hydrogeochemical analysis were applied to determine the origin of water, to model water-rock-tailings interactions and for source apportionment of sulfur and associated toxic metals in the mining region of Taxco, Guerrero in southern Mexico. Oxygen and H isotopes indicate that meteoric water in the zone is rainwater undergoing varying degrees of isotopic fractionation by atmospheric evaporation whereas Sr isotopes trace the interaction of pristine water from volcanics of the regional recharge zone and subsequently flowing through sandstone and shale to spring points. Leachates form from two distinctive sources (spring water and surface water) having differential interactions with bedrocks prior to entering the tailings. Compared to pristine water, leachates are enriched in sulfate, metals (e.g. Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn) and metalloids (e.g. As). The sulfur isotopic composition of ore-sulfides, leachates, secondary precipitates, regional surface water and hypogenic sulfates is described in terms of a two-component mixing model with shale of Mexcala and limestone of Morelos formations representing the light and heavy end-members, respectively, whereas Sr isotopic composition is bracketed combining three lithogenic (Mexcala/Morelos, Tilzapotla and Taxco Schist) sources. Finally, leachates have a mixture of lead from ore-sulfides and Taxco Schist Formation (Family I) or from ore-sulfides alone (Family II). The application of multiple environmental isotopic techniques is an outstanding tool for elucidating complex interactions of water with bedrocks and tailings and for determining the source of sulfur and toxic metal from mining and other metal polluted environments.