Assessment of hydrodynamic simulation results for eco‐hydraulic and eco‐hydrological applications: a spatial semivariance approach

Output from a three‐dimensional numerical flow model (SSIIM) is used in conjunction with high‐resolution topographic and velocity data to assess such models for eco‐hydraulic applications in river channel design and habitat appraisal. A new methodology for the comparison between field measurement and model output is detailed. This involves a comparison between conventional goodness‐of‐fit approaches applied to a spatially structured (riffle and pool) sample of model and field data, and a ‘relaxation’ method based upon the spatial semivariance of model/field departures. Conventional assessment indicates that the model predicts point‐by‐point velocity characteristics on a 0·45 m mesh to within ±0·1 m s⁻¹ over 80% of the channel area at low flow, and 50% of the area at high in‐bank flow. When a relative criterion of model fit is used, however, the model appears to perform less well: 60–70% of channel area has predicted velocities that depart from observed velocities by more than 10%. Regression analysis of observed and predicted velocities gives more cause for optimism, but all of these conventional indicators of goodness of fit neglect important spatial characteristics of model performance. Spatial semivariance is a means of supplementing model appraisal in this respect. In particular, using the relaxation approach, results are greatly improved: at a high in‐bank flow, the model results match field measurements to within 0·1 m s⁻¹ for more than 95% of the total channel area, provided that model and field comparisons are allowed within a radius of approximately 1 m from the original point of measurement. It is suggested that this revised form of model assessment is of particular relevance to eco‐hydraulic applications, where some degree of spatial and temporal dynamism (or uncertainty) is a characteristic. The approach may also be generalized to other environmental science modelling applications where the spatial attributes of model fits are of interest. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climatic and topographic limits to the abundance of bog pools

On patterned peatlands, open water pools develop within a matrix of terrestrial vegetation (‘ridges’). Regional patterns in the distribution of ridge–pool complexes suggest that the relative cover of these two surface types is controlled in part by climate wetness, but landscape topography must also be an important controlling factor. In this paper, a functional model that relates relative cover of ridges and pools to climate and surface gradient was developed and tested. The model was formulated in terms of a water budget, based on the differential effects of ridges and pools on losses by evapotranspiration and subsurface flow. It predicts a positive relationship between surface gradient and ridge proportion, with a linear effect related to water supply and ridge hydraulic conductivity, modified at high ridge proportion by differences in evapotranspiration between ridges and pools. The limit to patterned peatland distribution occurs where the surface is completely covered by ridges. The model may be sensitive or insensitive to climate differences between localities, depending on whether hydraulic characteristics of ridge peat co‐vary with water supply. To distinguish between these alternative hypotheses, surface gradient and ridge proportion were surveyed along 20 transects in each of three localities in Scotland that differ threefold in net precipitation to pools. The results of the field survey served to reject the climate‐sensitive hypothesis, but were consistent with the climate‐insensitive hypothesis. Analysis of the residuals suggested that variation within localities was related more to topographic control of water supply than to ridge hydraulic conductivity or developmental stage. Hence, within this maritime climate region, the distribution of ridge–pool complexes and the relative abundance of pools are controlled mainly by topographic variables. Field surveys across both maritime and continental regions are required to confirm a subtle climatic effect that allows pools to occur on higher gradients in drier climates than in wetter climates. Further development and testing of the functional model will provide a stronger basis for assessing potential feedback between climate change, peatland surface structure and methane emission from pools. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

靖安油田盘古梁长6油藏地质建模研究

建立能正确反映靖安油田盘古梁长6油藏地质特征的地质模型,通过对地层格架、沉积微相、骨架砂体、物性参数和储层非均质性的分析研究,借助GMSS地质建模软件,建立了确定型精细三维地质模型。所建立的构造、砂体、属性参数模型对该油藏的地质特征有了进一步认识,为油藏的高效开发提供了依据。     

西太平洋暖池冰期旋回中的类ENSO式演化及其驱动机制

作为全球接受太阳辐射最多、表层海水温度最高的区域,西太平洋暖池区通过厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)和季风等过程影响着全球气候的变化。越来越多的沉积记录证明,在地质历史时期西太平洋暖池也存在类似于现代ENSO过程的“类ENSO式”变化。而目前类ENSO式变化与冰期—间冰期旋回之间的响应关系和驱动机制及其与东亚季风的关联仍存在争议。本文利用位于暖池核心区的B10岩心浮游有孔虫氧同位素、Mg/Ca(质量分数比)和黏土矿物参数重建了暖池区氧同位素8期以来的古气候记录,并结合已有的热带海表温度记录、中国石笋氧同位素和南大洋地区海表温度记录,研究了西太平洋暖池冰期旋回中类ENSO状态的演化规律及其与东亚季风的关系,并探讨了暖池区类ENSO演化的驱动机制。结果发现:冰期时,西太平洋暖池区温跃层变浅,赤道东、西太平洋温差减小,同时,东亚夏季风减弱,暖池区降水量相对减少,与现代El Niño时期气候态类似;间冰期时,西太平洋暖池区温跃层加深,赤道东、西太平洋温差增大,东亚冬夏季风增强,暖池区降水量相对增加,与现代La Niña时期气候态类似。频谱分析结果表明,西太平洋暖池区海表温度的变化具有偏心率周期(96 ka)。冰消期时,低纬度太阳辐射量的增加,增大了纬向上的SST梯度,并使得次表层海水储存了更多的热量,积累的热量会通过调节次表层环流向暖池区的热传输,最终调控赤道太平洋地区Walker环流强度和ENSO活动的长期变化。而冰期时,南大洋地区降温所引起的东南信风和大洋环流异常可能对类ENSO式起到调控的作用。     

Analysis of Determinants for an Enhanced and Long-lasting Coastal Convective System by Means of a Case Study(26 July 2011)

A precipitation system developed continuously along the western coastline of the Korean Peninsula and created considerable precipitation both along the coast and inland on 26 July 2011. In this study, the causes for this nearshore convective system are investigated from observations and the results of model experiments. Three-dimensional radar fields clearly show that a change of wind at the surface border played an important role in the development of the nearshore convection system. The simulation results, which are very similar to the observations, show that the surface border generated and maintained the convergence zone. The roughness change enhanced the convergence, and the interaction between the deepening cold pool and downward flow maintained the convergence zone. The surface mechanical discontinuity affected by the roughness change between sea and land formed the convergence (gradient of wind stress),which induced momentum transfer to the upper layer. The cold pool created a steep gradient of potential temperature and provided the reason for the propagated convergence zone with the downward flow. The maximum value of the surface change factor, which comprises the influencing factors for the long-lasting convective system, reflects the enhancement of the system at the coast.     

浙江一次强飑线系统结构特征的数值研究

利用常规观测资料、自动气象站资料、NCEP再分析资料和高分辨率WRF模式,对2016年5月5日发生在浙江地区的一次强飑线过程进行模拟研究。结果表明,切变线是影响此次强飑线过程的主要天气系统,飑线发生在充沛的水汽,较弱的对流有效位能和中等强度垂直风切变大气环境下。WRF模式对此次飑线的演变过程和降水分布有较好的模拟能力。通过进一步分析模拟资料发现,雷暴高压和地面冷池是此次飑线风暴的重要边界层特征,边界层辐合线有利于飑线的发展和维持。飑线后侧对流层中层以下的强下沉气流,是造成此次雷暴大风的关键因素。     

NUMERICAL MODELING STUDY OF EFFECTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL ON ENSO

In this study, sensitivity experiments were conducted with the Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model forced by the wind stress anomaly from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data to study the impacts of eastern Pacific warm pool on the formation and development of ENSO events. The effects of climatological mean sea surface temperature of the warm pool on forecast skill during the ENSO events of 1982–1999 are more considerable that those of climatological mean meridional winds and ocean currents. The forecast skill for the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event is characterized by sensitivity to climatological mean sea surface temperature and anomalies of northerly winds and currents. The forecast skill is found insensitive to climatological mean northerly meridional winds and currents.     

水溶气非常规资源及其脱溶成藏

在气源和水体充足的前提下,天然气溶解于水主要受溶解度控制。天然气溶解度明显随压力增大而增大、在温度为80℃左右时取得最小值、随水的矿化度增加而轻微降低;气组分溶解度的顺序大致为:CO2N2C1C2C3C4。估计全球水溶气资源量高达常规气资源量的百余倍,是重要的非常规天然气资源。在含油气盆地的深部以及生烃坳陷附近的异常高压带,天然气溶解度大、水溶气相对富集,有利于形成高压地热型水溶气藏。当遇到后期构造大幅抬升、深断裂输导及异常高压释放时,水溶气发生脱溶,析出游离气并形成常规气藏。这种水溶、脱溶机制有效缓解了高演化盆地烃源形成早与圈闭定型晚之间的矛盾。国内外一些超大型气田(藏)的形成被认为与水溶气脱溶成藏有关。分析油气田水中的溶解气、气藏气以及含烃流体包裹体的化学组成及碳同位素组成,有助于重建地史时期天然气的水溶、脱溶过程。     

东辛油田沙三中亚段沉积特征与油藏分布规律

东辛油田沙三中亚段发育大量与三角洲前缘滑塌相伴生的坡移浊积扇、滑塌浊积扇、远源浊积岩以及洪水成因的水下碎屑流,发育岩性油藏及岩性-构造油藏。纵向上,湖退体系域早期准层序组PS7～PS5是最主要的油气富集层位,其次为湖侵体系域PS8;平面上,各准层序组西部油气富集程度好于东部,含油储层主要为滑塌浊积扇及部分远源浊积岩,其次为坡移浊积扇。油气分布主要受宏观沉积相带、构造、微观储集物性和成岩作用等多种因素控制,距油源远近控制油藏纵向有利层位,砂体成因类型控制着平面有利区带。     

Turbidite system architecture and sedimentary processes along topographically complex slopes: the Makran convergent margin

This study investigates the morphology and Late Quaternary sediment distribution of the Makran turbidite system (Makran subduction zone, north‐west Indian Ocean) from a nearly complete subsurface mapping of the Oman basin, two‐dimensional seismic and a large set of coring data in order to characterize turbidite system architecture across an active (fold and thrust belt) margin. The Makran turbidite system is composed of a dense network of canyons, which cut into high relief accreted ridges and intra‐slope piggyback basins, forming at some locations connected and variably tortuous paths down complex slopes. Turbidite activity and trench filling rates are high even during the Holocene sea‐level highstand conditions. In particular, basin‐wide, sheet‐like thick mud turbidites, probably related to major mass wasting events of low recurrence time, drape the flat and unchannellized Oman abyssal plain. Longitudinal depth profiles show that the Makran canyons are highly disrupted by numerous thrust‐related large‐scale knickpoints (with gradients up to 20° and walls up to 500 m high). At the deformation front, the strong break of slope can lead to the formation of canyon‐mouth ‘plunge pools’ of variable shapes and sizes. The plunge pools observed in the western Makran are considerably larger than those previously described in sub‐surface successions; the first insights into their internal architecture and sedimentary processes are presented here. Large plunge pools in the western Makran are associated with large scoured areas at the slope break and enhanced sediment deposition downstream: high‐amplitude reflectors are observed inside the plunge pools, while their flanks are composed of thin‐bedded, fine‐grained turbidites deposited by the uppermost part of the turbidity flows. Thus, these architectural elements are associated with strong sediment segregation leading to specific trench‐fill mechanisms, as only the finer‐grained component of the flows is transferred to the abyssal plain. However, the Makran accretionary prism is characterized by strong along‐strike variability in tectonics and fluvial input distribution that might directly influence the turbidite system architecture (i.e. canyon entrenchment, plunge pool formation or channel development at canyon mouths), the sedimentary dynamics and the resulting sediment distribution. Channel formation in the abyssal plain and trench‐fill characteristics depend on the theoretical ‘equilibrium’ conditions of the feeder system, which is related closely to the balance between erosion rates and tectonic regime. Thus, the Makran turbidite system constitutes an excellent modern analogue for deep‐water sedimentary systems with structurally complex depocentres, in convergent margin settings.