Seismic potential of Southern Italy

To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7.     

Site Effects Study in the Serravalle Village (NE Italy) by Means of Spectral Ratios Analyses Relatively to Multiple Reference Sites

The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode. Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular, spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites. Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary deposits.     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.     

GIS-based flood hazard mapping at different administrative scales: A case study in Gangetic West Bengal, India

This paper addresses the need for an efficient and cost-effective methodology for preparing flood hazard maps in data poor countries, particularly those under a monsoon regime where floods pose a recurrent danger. Taking Gangetic West Bengal, India, as an example and using available historical data from government agencies, the study compiled a regional map indicating hazard prone subregional areas for further detailed investigation, thereby isolating actual high risk localities. Using a GIS (Geographical Information System), a composite hazard index was devised incorporating variables of flood frequency, population density, transportation networks, access to potable water, and availability of high ground and maximum risk zones were mapped accordingly. A digital elevation model derived from high resolution imagery available in the public domain was used to calculate elevated areas suitable for temporary shelter during a flood. Selecting administrative units of analysis at the lowest possible scales – rural development blocks (regional) and revenue villages (subregional) – also ensures that hazard mapping is prepared in line with the existing rural planning and administrative authorities responsible for remedial intervention.     

Computation of Large Anisotropic Seismic Heterogeneities (CLASH)

A general tomographic technique is designed in order (i) to operate in anisotropic media; (ii) to account for the uneven seismic sampling and (iii) to handle massive data sets in a reasonable computing time. One modus operandi to compute a 3-D body wave velocity model relies on surface wave phase velocity measurements. An intermediate step, shared by other approaches, consists in translating, for each period of a given mode branch, the phase velocities integrated along ray paths into local velocity perturbations. To this end, we develop a method, which accounts for the azimuthal anisotropy in its comprehensive form. The weakly non-linear forward problem allows to use a conjugate gradient optimization. The Earth's surface is regularly discretized and the partial derivatives are assigned to the individual grid points. Possible lack of lateral resolution, due to the inescapable uneven ray path coverage, is taken into account through the a priori covariances on parameters with laterally variable correlation lengths. This method allows to efficiently separate the 2ψ and the 4ψ anisotropic effects from the isotropic perturbations. Fundamental mode and overtone phase velocity maps, derived with real Rayleigh wave data sets, are presented and compared with previous maps. The isotropic models concur well with the results of Trampert & Woodhouse. Large 4ψ heterogeneities are located in the tectonically active regions and over the continental lithospheres such as North America, Antarctica or Australia. At various periods, a significant 4ψ signature is correlated with the Hawaii hotspot track. Finally, concurring with the conclusions of Trampert & Woodhouse, our phase velocity maps show that Rayleigh wave data sets do need both 2ψ and 4ψ anisotropic terms.     

Geodynamic significance of granitoid magmatism in the southeast Anatolian orogen: geochemical and geochronogical evidence from Göksun–Afşin (Kahramanmaraş, Turkey) region

In southeast Anatolia, there are number of tectonomagmatic units in the Kahramanmaraş–Malatya–Elazığ region that are important in understanding the geological evolution of the southeast Anatolian orogenic belt during the Late Cretaceous. These are (a) metamorphic massifs, (b) ophiolites, (c) ophiolite-related metamorphics and (d) granitoids. The granitoids (i.e. Göksun–Afşin in Kahramanmaraş, Doğanşehir in Malatya and Baskil in Elazığ) intrude all the former units in a NE–SW trending direction. The granitoid in Göksun–Afşin (Kahramanmaraş) region is mainly composed of granodioritic and granitic in composition. The granodiorite contains a number of amphibole-bearing mafic microgranular enclaves of different sizes, whereas the granite is intruded by numerous aplitic dikes. The granitoid rocks have typical calcalkaline geochemical features. The REE- and Ocean ridge granite-normalized multi-element patterns and tectonomagmatic discrimination diagrams, as well as biotite geochemistry suggest that the granitoids were formed in a volcanic arc setting. The K–Ar geochronology of the granitoid rocks yielded ages ranging from 85.76±3.17 to 77.49±1.91 Ma. The field, geochemical and geochronological data suggest the following Late Cretaceous tectonomagmatic scenario for southeast Anatolia. The ophiolites were formed in a suprasubduction zone tectonic setting whereas the ophiolite-related metamorphic rocks formed either during the initiation of intraoceanic subduction or late-thrusting (∼90 Ma). These units were then overthrust by the Malatya–Keban platform during the progressive elimination of the southern Neotethys. Thrusting of the Malatya–Keban platform over the ophiolites and related metamorphic rocks was followed by the intrusion of the granitoids (88–85 Ma) along the Tauride active continental margin in the southern Neotethys.     

New data on Upper Kimmeridgian-Tithonian biostratigraphy and ammonites of the eastern Crimea

Based on ammonites, Upper Kimmeridgian sediments are first established in the Crimean Mountains. The Kimmeridgian-Tithonian boundary recognizable in a continuous section is placed inside the Dvuyakomaya Formation of uniform largely clayey sediments. Assemblages of Kimmeridgian ammonites Lingulaticeras cf. procurvum (Ziegler), Pseudowaagenia gemmellariana Oloriz, Euvirgalithacoceras cf. tantalus (Herbich), Subplanites sp.) and Tithonian forms (?Lingulaticeras efimovi (Rogov), Phylloceras consaguineum Gemmellaro, Oloriziceras cf. schneidi Tavera, and Paraulacosphinctes cf. transitorius (Oppel) are described. A new biostratigraphic scheme proposed for the upper Tithonian-Berriasian of the Crimean Mountains includes the following new biostratigraphic units: the Euvirgalithacoceras cf. tantalus Beds of the upper Kimmeridgian, ?Lingulaticeras efimovi Beds of the lower Tithonian, and Oloriziceras cf. schneidi and Paraulacosphinctes cf. transitorius beds of the upper Tithonian. The middle Tithonian is proposed to consist of the fallauxi and semiforme (presumably) zones. The ammonities found determine the early Kimmeridgian-Berriasian age of the Dvuyakornaya Formation that is most likely in tectonic contact with the underlying Khutoran Formation.