不同计算形式的相关分析在气象中的应用综述

相关分析在气象科研和业务中具有广泛应用,是定量分析气象变量之间关系的重要工具.首先系统综述了气象科研与业务中不同计算形式的相关分析算法,然后重点阐述了相关分析在气象领域应用的最新进展,特别是全窗口滑动相关和相关系数的扫描式多尺度突变检测算法.接着介绍了大数据研究领域中新发展的相关分析算法,简析了其对气象相关分析的启示....     

通过滑面应力状态评价滑坡稳定性

以黄河上游某大型滑坡为例,研究了有限元法在评价滑坡稳定性中的应用。具体操作过程是：建立滑坡的有限元模型,求出滑面上的应力状态,计算滑面上总的抗滑力与总的滑动力之比,最后评价滑坡的稳定性。通过对黄河上游某大型滑坡比较研究发现,采用有限元法比传递系数法得出的稳定性系数高0．07,这种差异属允许差异范围。采用有限元法计算该滑坡在天然与地震两种条件下的稳定性系数分别为1．14和1．1,可以认为滑坡在两种条件下的稳定性较好。该方法原理正确、操作简单、结果可信度高,有一定的适用价值。     

台风麦莎登陆后粘性摩擦对正压特征波动的影响

本文推导出柱坐标系下含有粘性摩擦项的正压方程组。选取2005年台风麦莎登陆浙江过程中的8月6日15时的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式输出资料,利用数值差分方法对该正压方程组求特征波解,分析粘性摩擦对台风麦莎内部正压特征波动的影响。结果表明,重力惯性外波在粘性摩擦的影响下,最不稳定波的波数为45左右,波动在摩擦的影响下衰减,波动沿逆时针传播,在半径1000 km处,1波波速为47.43 m/s,在半径r>800 km的范围内,径向风分量扰动加大,辐合辐散运动增强;而摩擦影响下的涡旋Rossby波,2波最不稳定,波动增长率减小,在半径r=200 km处波动相速度为4.282~29.172 m/s,扰动涡度大值区范围减小,涡旋Rossby波的波动区域沿着径向向台风中心收缩。分析包含所有波动时,考虑摩擦后,最不稳定波数在45左右且波动衰减,1波波速在r=1000 km处(外螺旋雨带)为26.374 m/s;在半径r=200 km(内螺旋雨带)为5.275 m/s,考虑径向基本气流后,最不稳定波的波数保持不变,半径r=1000 km处的波速增加为30.324 m/s,r=200 km(内螺旋雨带)处波速为6.065 m/s,摩擦使得径向风分量扰动明显增大,辐合辐散运动加强。     

Basic characteristics of active tectonics of China

Active tectonics is inferred to all the structures which have been active since the late Pleisto-cene, 100—120 ka B.P., are still active recently, and will be active in a certain time period in the future, such as active faults, active folds, active basi…     

Field survey of the 1994 Mindoro Island,Philippines tsunami

This is a report of the field survey of the November 15, 1994 Mindoro Island, Philippines, tsunami generated by an earthquake (M=7.0) with a strike-slip motion. We will report runup heights from 54 locations on Luzon, Mindoro and other smaller islands in the Cape Verde passage between Mindoro and Luzon. Most of the damage was concentrated along the northern coast of Mindoro. Runup height distribution ranged 3–4 m at the most severely damaged areas and 2–4 in neighboring areas. The tsunami-affected area was limited to within 10 km of the epicenter. The largest recorded runup value of 7.3 m was measured on the southwestern coast of Baco Island while a runup of 6.1 m was detected on its northern coastline. The earthquake and tsunami killed 62 people, injured 248 and destroyed 800 houses. As observed in other recent tsunami disasters, most of the casualties were children. Nearly all eyewitnesses interviewed described the first wave as a leading-depression wave. Eyewitnesses reported that the main direction of tsunami propagation was SW in Subaang Bay, SE in Wawa and Calapan, NE on Baco Island and N on Verde Island, suggesting that the tsunami source area was in the southern Pass of Verde Island and that the wave propagated rapidly in all directions. The fault plane extended offshore to the N of Mindoro Island, with its rupture originating S of Verde Island and propagating almost directly south to the inland of Mindoro, thereby accounting for the relatively limited damage area observed on the N of Mindoro.     

粘滑失稳及其物理场时空分布的实验研究

摩擦滑动的物理场实验研究表明：（１）能量空间分布的差异是失稳的重要条件，单发型大事件常发生于高能量向低能量的突变带或高能量背景区内的相对低能量区；（２）单发型大事件的孕育过程常常经历若干个能量输入输出循环，产生多个前兆阶段，并在失稳前源区常有一个弱化过程。小震或群发型事件失稳前常常只有一个能量积累与强化的过程，失稳前兆阶段性反映较差；（３）粘滑失稳时断层的位错与声发射的大小未见明显关系     

Holocene slip rate and paleoearthquake records of the Salt Lake segment of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault,Shanxi Province

The Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault is a major deep fault at the southern margin of the Yuncheng Basin. There have been few studies on the fault, and the historical earthquakes are few and weak. However, the intensity of activity on the fault should never be underestimated. Through interpretations of aerial images, topography measurements and excavation of trenches, this paper studied the fault distribution, the surface deformation and the activity of the normal fault south of Salt Lake near the city of Yuncheng. By tracing faults in the three trenches, it was found that there had been at least three large paleoseismic events, at 1–3.5, 3.6–4.4 and 7.4–8.8 ka BP. Employing 14 C dating, we determined the same gravel layers in the uplifted side and downthrown side. Making differential Global Positioning System measurements of the vertical difference and topographic profile, we obtained the mean slip rate of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault since 24.7 ka BP(0.75±0.05 mm/a). Using the results of relevant studies, we calculated the possible vertical fault displacement of one earthquake(2.35 m) and obtained the recurrence interval of characteristic earthquakes as 2940–3360 a after dividing the displacement by the mean slip rate.     

天桥沟-黄羊川活动断裂带的几何学和运动学特征

依据１ ：５０ ０００ 地质填图资料,对天桥沟—黄羊川活动断裂带晚更新世以来的几何学和运动学特征进行了详细的论述．认为该断裂带可分为逆走滑（ 左旋） 的天桥沟断裂段和正走滑（ 左旋） 的黄羊川断裂段,其主要活动时期是晚更新世,滑动速率为４ ～５ ｍ ｍ／ａ ．全新世早期,该断裂带活动强度逐渐减弱,其最后一次活动的时间为距今０ ．７５９ ×１０４ ～１ ．０２ ×１０４ 年     

Scaling of capillary,gravity and viscous forces affecting flow morphology in unsaturated porous media

Interplay between capillary, gravity and viscous forces in unsaturated porous media gives rise to a range of complex flow phenomena affecting morphology, stability and dynamics of wetting and drainage fronts. Similar average phase contents may result in significantly different fluid distribution and patterns affecting macroscopic transport properties of the unsaturated medium. The formulation of general force balance within simplified pore spaces yields scaling relationships for motion of liquid elements in which gravitational force in excess of capillary pinning force scales linearly with viscous force. Displacement fluid front morphology is described using dimensionless force ratios expressed as Bond and Capillary numbers. The concise representations of a wide range of flow regimes with scaling relations, and predictive capabilities of front morphology based on dimensionless numbers lend support to certain generalizations. Considering available experimental data, we are able to define conditions for onset of unstable and intermittent flows leading to enhanced liquid and gas entrapment. These results provide a basis for delineation of a tentative value of Bo ∼ 0.05 as an upper limit of applicability of the Richards equation (at pore to sample scales) and related continuum-based flow models.     

Similarities between strike-slip faults at different scales and a simple age determining method for active faults

Abstract Several differently scaled strike‐slip faults were examined. The faults shared many geometric features, such as secondary fractures and linkage structures (damage zones). Differences in fault style were not related to specific scale ranges. However, it was recognized that differences in style may occur in different tectonic settings (e.g. dilational/contractional relays or wall/linkage/tip zones), different locations along the master fault or different fault evolution stages. Fractal dimensions were compared for two faults (Gozo and San Andreas), which supports the idea of self‐similarity. Fractal dimensions for traces of faults and fractures of damage zones were higher (D ～1.35) than for the main fault traces (D ～1.005) because of increased complexity due to secondary faults and fractures. Based on the statistical analysis of another fault evolution study, single event movements in earthquake faults typically have a maximum earthquake slip : rupture length ratio of approximately 10^?4, although this has only been established for large earthquake faults because of limited data. Most geological faults have a much higher maximum cumulative displacement : fault length ratio; that is, approximately 10^?2 to 10^?1 (e.g. Gozo, ～10^?2; San Andreas, ～10^?1). The final cumulative displacement on a fault is produced by accumulation of slip along ruptures. Hence, using the available information from earthquake faults, such as earthquake slip, recurrence interval, maximum cumulative displacement and fault length, the approximate age of active faults can be estimated. The lower limit of estimated active fault age is expressed with maximum cumulative displacement, earthquake slip and recurrence interval as T ? (d_max /u) · I(M).