Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making

This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Are modern metaheuristics successful in calibrating simple conceptual rainfall–runoff models?

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions.     

Hydrological system analysis and modelling of the Kara River basin (West Africa) using a lumped metric conceptual model

This paper discusses the analysis and modelling of the hydrological system of the basin of the Kara River, a transboundary river in Togo and Benin, as a necessary step towards sustainable water resources management. The methodological approach integrates the use of discharge parameters, flow duration curves and the lumped conceptual model IHACRES. A Sobol sensitivity analysis is performed and the model is calibrated by applying the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. Results show that discharge generation in three nested catchments of the basin is affected by landscape physical characteristics. The IHACRES model adequately simulates the rainfall–runoff dynamics in the basin with a mean modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure of 0.6. Modelling results indicate that parameters controlling rainfall transformation to effective rainfall are more sensitive than those routing the streamflow. This study provides insights into understanding the catchment’s hydrological system. Nevertheless, further investigations are required to better understand detailed runoff generation processes.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR N Verhoest     

Comparison of two rainfall–runoff models: effects of conceptualization on water budget components

Rainfall–runoff models with different conceptual structures for the hydrological processes can be calibrated to effectively reproduce the hydrographs of the total runoff, while resulting in water budget components that are essentially different. This finding poses an open question on the reliability of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological components other than those used for calibration. In an effort to address this question, we use data from the Glafkos catchment in western Greece to calibrate and compare the ENNS model, a research-oriented lumped model developed for the river Enns in Austria developed for the river Enns in Austria, with the operational MIKE SHE model. Model performance is assessed in the light of the conceptual/structural differences of the modelled hydrological processes, using indices calculated independently for each year, rather than for the whole calibration period, since the former are stricter. We show that even small differences in the representation of hydrological processes may impact considerably on the water budget components that are not measured (i.e. not used for model calibration). From all water budget components, direct runoff exhibits the highest sensitivity to structural differences and related model parameters.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang     

Evaluation of nonlinear models for precipitation forecasting

Prediction of factors affecting water resources systems is important for their design and operation. In hydrology, wavelet analysis (WA) is known as a new method for time series analysis. In this study, WA was combined with an artificial neural network (ANN) for prediction of precipitation at Varayeneh station, western Iran. The results obtained were compared with the adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ANN. Moreover, data on relative humidity and temperature were employed in addition to rainfall data to examine their influence on precipitation forecasting. Overall, this study concluded that the hybrid WANN model outperformed the other models in the estimation of maxima and minima, and is the best at forecasting precipitation. Furthermore, training and transfer functions are recommended for similar studies of precipitation forecasting.     

Quantitative evaluation of the rainfall influence on streamflow in an inland mountainous river basin within Central Asia

Stable isotopes of water have been widely used in understanding the hydrological functions of alpine inland catchments. This study identifies dominant runoff generation mechanisms based on isotopic data (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) of 487 rainwater and river-water samples from three tributaries in the Tarim River Basin in China for the period May–September 2013. The isotope hydrograph separation results provide a comprehensive overview of the rainfall influence on hydrological processes. Stream water and groundwater have varied responses to different intensities of rainfall events. Only a small proportion of rainfall is directly transported to the stream during such events. An inconsistent temporal trend of event water contribution is observed in the three catchments. The average fractional contributions of rainfall for the Tizinafu, Kumalak and Huangshuigou rivers are 10.3% (±1.1%), 9.7% (±2.9%) and 8.7% (±2.4%), respectively.     

江南造山带(湖南段)金矿成矿规律与资源潜力

扬子地块—华夏地块经历武陵期—雪峰期增生造山-碰撞造山形成江南造山带,构成统一的华南板块,进入板内演化阶段。本文从构造-岩浆作用-沉积建造角度,结合地质年代学、古地磁、岩相古地理分析,加里东运动、印支运动属陆内作用,造就了加里东期、印支期两次主要的金矿成矿事件。湖南雪峰山—幕阜山(俗称“金腰带”)加里东期和印支晚期金矿床分区成带产出,构成一条复合型造山型金矿带。区域性构造导矿、次级构造交汇或叠加控矿明显;矿石普遍发育条带状构造,属韧性剪切递进变形的产物。通过对区域成矿背景、金矿成矿理论,金矿床(体)地质特征,结合同位素地球化学、地质找矿成果及深部验证情况等多方面研究表明该成矿带深部找矿潜力巨大,2000 m以浅金远景资源量有望达到3000 t。     

湘黔渝毗邻区南华纪岩相古地理及沉积盆地演化

湘黔渝毗邻区大地构造位置位于扬子陆块东南缘,发育有完整的南华纪沉积记录,同时也是我国南华纪“大塘坡式”沉积型锰矿的重要富集区。通过对区内南华系剖面的详细调查与研究,结合室内综合分析,应用“优势相”成图方法编制了南华纪早世、中世、晚世岩相古地理图件。研究表明:受Rodinia超大陆全球性裂解作用影响,南华纪时期扬子陆块东南缘发生广泛的裂解作用,形成武陵次级裂谷盆地和雪峰次级裂谷盆地,构成“堑-垒”式古地理格局,南华系是在这一背景下形成的“楔状”沉积体;划分出大陆相组、过渡相组和海相组三大沉积相组,识别出河流相、湖泊相、三角洲相、海岸相以及浅海陆棚相等沉积相及若干沉积亚相等。系列图件的编制恢复了南华纪时期的沉积盆地演化与古地理变迁,建立了沉积盆地演化模式,为区域上沉积型锰矿的预测与寻找提供了一定的沉积学依据。     

南盘江—右江盆地构造演化与金锑成矿作用

南盘江—右江盆地具独特的盆地构造演化历史和背景,是西南低温成矿域的重要组成部分,广泛发育有Au-As-Sb-Hg-Tl等低温热液矿床,金锑成矿作用与盆地构造演化密切相关。本文系统总结南盘江—右江盆地构造演化过程和历史,分析盆地演化对沉积地层、沉积相带分布、古地理变迁等的控制作用。盆地内金锑矿床受构造和有利岩性组合控矿明显,结合南盘江—右江盆地内Cu-W-Sn-Pb-Zn-Au-Sb-Hg等矿床空间分布特征及规律,探讨盆地构造演化与金锑成矿作用和成矿效应的关系。类比斑岩-矽卡岩-浅成低温热液型多金属矿床最新研究成果,建立南盘江—右江盆地以陆内斑岩型铜矿床为中心,上部或边部矽卡岩型铜矿床、脉状钨-锡-银-铅-锌矿床和远端低温热液金-银-锑-汞矿床的找矿预测模型,模型对南盘江—右江成矿区深部斑岩型矿床或与斑岩体有关的矽卡岩型矿床的找矿勘查具有重要意义。     

Chronological and geochemical constraints on the pre-variscan tectonic history of the Erzgebirge,Saxothuringian Zone

A combined U–Pb zircon geochronological and whole-rock isotopic and geochemical study has been carried out on high-grade orthogneiss, meta-basite, and meta-sediments from the Erzgebirge. The results indicate multiple pulses of Ediacaran–Ordovician magmatism in a transitional volcanic-arc to rift-basin setting. Orthogneiss from high-pressure nappes exhibit a step-like pattern of inherited zircon ages and emplacement ages of 500–475 Ma. In contrast, granite gneiss from the medium-pressure core of the Erzgebirge is characterised by three pulses of magmatism in the Early Cambrian, Late Cambrian, and Early Ordovician. A trend of decreasing Th/U ratios in zircon is observed to c.500 Ma, after which significant increases in the trend and variability of the data is inferred to mark the transition from arc-related to rift-related magmatism. Sediments deposited in the Early Cambrian have continental island arc affinity. Major detrital peaks in the Ediacaran and subordinate Tonian, Palaeoproterozoic, and Neoarchaean data are consistent with an Avalonian-Cadomian Arc and West African Craton derivation. The Early Cambrian sediments were locally reworked by a thermal event in the Ordovician resulting in leucocratic banding and recorded in Ordovician zircon rims characterised by systematically lower Th/U ratios. Ptygmatically folded leucocratic bands containing Ordovician zircon rims, associated with low Th/U ratios, are further observed in the granite gneiss core of the Erzgebirge. Variscan ages are rare, except in a fine-grained high-pressure micaschist, which contains exclusively small, structure-less, zircon with a weighted mean age of 350 ± 2 Ma. These data, along with a re-evaluation of previously published data, have been interpreted as the product of flattening subduction during the Early Cambrian; followed by the opening of slab windows in the Late Cambrian; and finally delamination in the Early Ordovician. Delamination of the orphaned slab led to asthenospheric upwellings triggering extension, bimodal magmatic pulses, recycling of fertile crust, high-temperature metamorphism, and cratonisation of relatively young crust.