利用远震接收函数反演乌江彭水电站地震台下方地壳厚度

乌江彭水电站目前是重庆市最大的水电站,电站总投资121亿元,总装机容量为175万kw.坝高116.5 m,水库正常蓄水水位293 m,总库容13.35亿m3,为河道型高坝水库.已有研究结果表明,彭水电站坝区是稳定的,但库区及外围地区仍存在5级左右的地震活动背景,在水库蓄水后有可能诱发中,强地震.本文利用彭水台网于200...     

宁夏及邻区地震活动能量场时空变化特征

运用随机函数理论,将宁夏及邻区地震活动能量场看作时间和空间的随机函数,用自然正交函数展开方法,系统研究宁夏及邻区主要典型能量场的时间权重系数变化曲线以及典型能量场的空间等值线图。结果发现,目标曲线较大幅度的升、降变化预示了可能发生中强地震的时间段,而等值线图的高值变化（危险区）对应了可能发生中强地震的区域。     

GPS水汽资料在江西强对流天气预报中的初步应用

利用GPS/MET 水汽监测资料,对2009-2011 年江西省8 次具有代表性的强天气过程的GPS 可降水量变化进行分析和研究,并重点对2011 年6 月10-15 日的降水过程进行分析.结果表明,在每次强天气的发展过程中,水汽含量其增长率均表现为不均匀,但均呈现剧烈增长;6 次强天气过程的初始GPS 可降水量高于6...     

近55年来宾市雷暴日数特征分析

采用1956～2010年广西来宾市国家基本气象站常规地面气象观测资料,对雷暴日数特征进行了统计分析。结果表明,来宾市年雷暴日数在46～106d,年平均雷暴日数为72．4d;来宾市一年中任何一天都有可能出现雷暴天气,其中6、7、8月雷暴日数最多,约占全年雷暴日数的57．4％。小波分析显示,来宾年雷暴活动具有较强的9年周期...     

Study on Probability Distributions of Multi-Timescale Aerosol Optical Depth Using AERONET Data

The probability distribution analysis is per-formed for multi-timescale aerosol optical depth (AOD) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data.The maximum likelihood estimation is employed to determine the best-fit probability density function (PDF),and the statement that the fitting Weibull distribution will be light-tailed is proved true for these AOD samples.The best-fit PDF results for multi-site data show that the PDF of AOD samples with longer timescale in most sites tends to be stably represented by lognormal distribution,while Weibull distribution is a better fit for AOD samples with short timescales.The reason for this difference is ana-lyzed through tail characteristics of the two distributions,and an indicator for the selection between Weibull and lognormal distributions is suggested and validated.The result of this research is helpful for determining the most accurate AOD statistics for a given site and a given time-scale and for validating the retrieved AOD through its PDF.     

我国夏季高温极值的概率分布特征及其演变

针对夏季高温极值分布存在偏态性,利用Box-Cox变换,得到一种偏态概率分布拟合函数。基于偏态分布函数中的偏态指数和最概然高温极值,揭示了我国夏季高温极值的概率分布特征及其在20世纪80年代前后的变化规律,发现我国夏季高温极值的概率分布主要呈正偏分布型,最概然高温极值变化较好地反映了分布型的改变。研究不同时间尺度内极值对偏态指数和最概然高温极值的影响发现,最概然高温极值较为稳定,10年尺度内受极值影响较小,而偏态指数所受影响随着时间尺度的增大而越发显著。     

自相关法单频干扰识别与消除方法

常规单频干扰压制方法需要估算频率、振幅和相位,由于频率和相位与单频干扰呈非线性函数关系,因此任何参数估算方法都会非常费时,且计算效率低下.本文提出的自相关法单频干扰识别与消除方法,利用地震数据自相关函数计算单频干扰自相关函数,采用余弦函数自适应减算法快速估算单频干扰.本方法不需要估算单频干扰的频率、相位和振幅参数,因此...     

南海西沙地块岛屿地震观测和海陆联测初步结果

为了研究南海西沙地块下方的地壳结构,我们在岛屿区架设了流动地震台站进行天然地震观测和海底地震仪的人工地震探测.本文利用远震接收函数方法和射线追踪方法对琛航台的远震数据和海陆联测数据进行了初步处理和分析,建立了琛航岛下方的一维横波速度模型以及横穿琛航岛的二维地壳结构模型.琛航岛顶部存在2 km厚的新生代低速沉积层,下地壳...     

Theory and experimental study for sliding isolators with variable curvature

Because a conventional isolation system with constant isolation frequency is usually a long‐period dynamic system, its seismic response is likely to be amplified in earthquakes with strong long‐period wave components, such as near‐fault ground motions. Seismic isolators with variable mechanical properties may provide a promising solution to alleviate this problem. To this end, in this work sliding isolators with variable curvature (SIVC) were studied experimentally. An SIVC isolator is similar to a friction pendulum system (FPS) isolator, except that its sliding surface has variable curvature rather being spherical. As a result, the SIVC's isolation stiffness that is proportional to the curvature becomes a function of the isolator displacement. By appropriately designing the geometry of the sliding surface, the SIVC is able to possess favorable hysteretic behavior. In order to prove the applicability of the SIVC concept, several prototype SIVC isolators, whose sliding surfaces are defined by a sixth‐order polynomial function, were fabricated and tested in this study. A cyclic element test on the prototype SIVC isolators and a shaking table test on an SIVC isolated steel frame were all conducted. The results of both tests have verified that the prototype SIVC isolators do indeed have the hysteretic property of variable stiffness as prescribed by the derived formulas in this study. Moreover, it is also demonstrated that the proposed SIVC is able to effectively reduce the isolator drift in a near‐fault earthquake with strong long‐period components, as compared with that of an FPS system with the same friction coefficient. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

集对分析径向基函数神经网络预测模型

将集对分析与径向基函数神经网络结合,提出了集对分析径向基函数神经网络预测模型。模型思路是将研究对象t-1时和t时的影响因子集构造为集对并计算联系度,由联系度的同一度、差异度、对立度及研究对象t-1时的值为输入,研究对象t时的值为输出,构建径向基函数神经网络。以年径流预测为例研究表明,模型结构清晰、步骤明确、预测精度较高,为集对分析应用于水文预测提供了新思路。