Component correlations in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation

This paper addresses correlations between multiple components in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation. To date, the consideration of such correlations has been limited by methodological tractability, increased computational demand, and a paucity of data for their computation. The effect of component correlations, which arises in various forms, is however a significant factor affecting the results of structure‐specific seismic loss estimation and therefore it is prudent that adequate consideration be given to their effect. This paper provides the details of a tractable and computationally efficient seismic loss estimation methodology in which correlations can be considered. Methods to determine the necessary correlations are discussed, particularly those that can be used in the absence of sufficient empirical data, for which values are suggested based on the judgement. The effects of various assumptions regarding correlations are illustrated via application to a case‐study office structure. It is observed that certain correlation assumptions can lead to errors in excess of 50% in the lognormal standard deviation in the loss given intensity and loss hazard relationships, while full consideration of partial correlations is 50 times more computationally expensive than other assumptions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Receiver function imaging in strongly laterally heterogeneous crust: Synthetic modeling of BOLIVAR data

We resolve a large (~20 km) discrepancy in Moho depth determined from PdS receiver functions (RFs) and from active source seismic profiling in the complex Caribbean-South American plate boundary zone in eastern Venezuela. As part of the BOLIVAR experiment 20 broadband stations were deployed along an active source profile to record teleseisms. Using the extremely heterogeneous crustal model obtained from active source data, we generated 2D finite-difference elastic wave synthetics and from them calculated receiver functions and CCP stacks. We compare the observations with synthetic sections that have been spatially sampled at 0.25 km to 40 km. The densely sampled synthetics show that several events in the field data that were originally interpreted as the Moho are multiple reflections within sedimentary basins. Where the Moho has the steepest dip under the plate boundary the CCP stacks fail to image the Moho well, regardless of the density of spatial sampling. A suitable spatial sampling criterion for clearly imaging the lower crust and Moho is to overlap Fresnel zones by 50% at Moho depth, which for the 1 Hz receiver functions examined here, requires an instrument spacing of 15–20 km, with the actual field data density ranging from 20 km to 100 km.     

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基于动力学模型的城市资源竞争机制

城市间资源的过度竞争是城市群和谐发展的一大障碍,严重影响了城市群综合竞争力的提高。本文采用动力学模型研究了城市发展与其资源约束的关系,并引入风险规避函数,建立城市资源竞争模型来模拟城市资源竞争的演进机制。分析表明:(1)城市发展与演变过程中,具有较为明显的规模效应,在初期由于集聚效应,城市经济达到一定规模后得以更为迅速的发展;当城市发展规模过大,必然受到自然资源的约束,出现规模效应递减;(2)城市资源竞争是一个非常复杂的动力过程,包括社会经济发展的市场作用,也受到政府行为、科技水平等人类行为因素影响。经济发展战略的选择、人口与科技等相关因素都会对资源竞争的结果产生深刻作用;缩小人均收入与生态效率的差距有助于协调城市间资源竞争关系。     

民间信仰地域分异的微观分析——泉州三个村庄神祇生态位宽度测量和比较

民间信仰区域分异,前人的研究多数定位于有方言差异的大尺度区域。但无方言差异的小尺度区域内,人们对神祇的信仰和供奉也存在一定的差异。本文利用生态位理论及生态位宽度测度模型对泉州市东海镇三个不同村落(蟳埔、宝山和法石)的民间神祇信仰情况进行微观分析。结果显示,在无方言差异的小尺度区域内,影响神祇在区域内生态位宽度的最主要因素是神祇功能与这个区域产业类型的相关程度。神祇的功能与区域内产业类型的相关程度是影响民间信仰神祇区域分异的重要因素。区域间产业类型的分异受自然地理条件的影响。因此,特定功能神祇的区域分异与自然地理环境有密切关系。由生态位宽度测度模型计算出的民间信仰神祇生态位数据与神祇在三个村落的分布及影响的实际情况比较契合,生态位理论应用于民间信仰神祇的区域研究是可行的。     

浅埋隧道围岩应力场的计算复变函数求解法

对于受地表边界和地面荷载影响的浅埋隧道的围岩应力场,由于在数学处理上存在一定的困难,很难用解析解来进行分析,而通常采用边界元或有限元的数值方法来解答。为了求解浅埋隧道的应力场,采用边界配点来确定边界条件,同时用保角映射将一个含圆孔的半无限空间区域映射为圆环域,然后把这个区域内的解析函数展开成Laurent级数的形式,利用Muskhelishvili的复变函数理论和最小二乘法来确定解析函数的各项系数,从而求得浅埋隧道围岩压力的半数值、半解析解,最后通过算例给出了围岩应力的分布情况。计算结果表明,该方法计算精度高、计算量小,具有应用价值。     

内撑式排桩支护结构的设计优化研究

在分析内撑式排桩支护结构受力特性和设计优化空间的基础上,基于满应力设计基本思想,建立了支护桩－内支撑（节点）部位的设计优化数学模型,提出了用于求解该（节点）部位局部优化解的新的目标函数 和相应的设计优化判据,推导并比较了钢筋混凝土内支撑等效轴向抗压容许应力 和支护桩等效抗弯容许应力 的3种取值方法,并以杭州某基坑支护应用为例作了介绍。可供同类基坑支护设计优化时借鉴。     

基于生态功能区划的黄河三角洲土地资源优化配置

土地资源的优化配置作为一种手段,其实质是依据土地类型本身的生态适宜性及其结构格局的差异性,运用人工技术调控的方法对有悖于自然生态结构的现状利用结构进行优化调整与安排,从而达到土地利用系统功能趋优的目的。论文首先从生态学的角度,根据黄河三角洲生态区划优化配置原则,对土地资源适宜方向与土地利用现状相匹配,甄别出需要调整的类型,构建黄河三角洲土地资源优化配置模型。其次基于该模型,利用GIS软件分析模块,实现土地资源优化配置。最后采用土地资源利用综合适宜度指数,对黄河三角洲土地资源优化配置效果进行评价,进一步说明了按照生态功能区划原则进行土地资源优化效果很好,具有一定的创新性。     

兰州台阵响应函数及不同方位小地震事件FK分析结果

计算了兰州台阵不同频率的台阵响应函数,对台阵附近不同方位的4个小震进行了FK分析。结果显示兰州台阵2 Hz以下的台阵响应函数在原点附近呈现出对称的单主峰图样,而高于2Hz时台阵响应函数出现较多旁瓣,表明该台阵对于2 Hz以下的信号具有较好的分辨能力。小震的FK分析结果表明,根据甘肃省地震局地震目录和IASP91速度模型计算得到P波方位角和慢度与FK分析的结果总体上比较一致,但也存在一定差别,这种差别可能由所使用的理论模型和当地模型有差别以及未做台阵校正所引起。     

Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan

Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space–time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space–time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box–Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space–time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974–2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space–time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.