Recent Sea Level and Sea Surface Temperature Trends Along the Bangladesh Coast in Relation to the Frequency of Intense Cyclones

Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries in the world, is a victim of frequent natural calamities like tropical cyclones, tornadoes, floods, storm surges and droughts. Now the sea level rise (SLR) has also been included in these natural calamities. The SLR is likely to have greater impact on that part of Bangladesh having low topography and a wide flood plain. Since 21% of the population lives in the low coastal belt, any increase in sea level will be a problem of ominous proportion for Bangladesh. Since the cyclogenesis enhances over the Bay of Bengal during May and November, the sea level and sea surface temperature (SST) trends of these two months have been analyzed and calculated. The results of the selected stations one in the eastern coast and another in the western coast of Bangladesh show that Bangladesh coastal sea level is rising in the same way as the global sea level, but the magnitude is quite different. The difference in the behavior of sea level rise along the Bangladesh coast and the global trend may be due to the tectonic activity such as subsidence of the land. The mean tide level at Hiron Point (in Sunderbans) has shown an increasing trend of about 2.5 mm/year in May and 8.5 mm/year in November. Similarly near Cox?s Bazar (in the eastern coast of Bangladesh) it has registered a positive trend of about 4.3 mm/year in May and 10.9 mm/year in November. Thus the increment in the sea level along the Bangladesh coast during cyclone months is much more pronounced. In coastal waters near Hiron Point the SST has registered an increasing trend of about 1°C in May and 0.5°C in November during the 14-year period from 1985?1998. Near Cox?s Bazar, SST has shown a rising trend of about 0.8°C in May and about 0.4°C in November during the same 14-year period. The magnitude of SST trend is slightly more along the west coast. Any change in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones will have far reaching implications in the South Asian region. The rise in SST in the cyclone months seems to be correlated with the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. During these months, an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of severe cyclones has been observed.     

基于奇异谱分析的江淮降水场预测模型研究

中国的降水预报主要是对汛期(夏季)的单站降水量或区域的降水型态进行预报,而主要的预报方法为动力学方法和统计学方法。据此,利用江淮地区的月降水量标准化序列,得到江淮地区降水时空分布型态。并在此基础上,利用奇异谱分析和时间序列的分析方法,设计了统计学的降水预测模型,对江淮地区的月降水量进行了预测试验。结果表明,模型能对江淮降水场的趋势作出较好的预报,且递推时间短时预报效果较好。     

Calculation of cloud modification factors for the horizontal plane eye damaging ultraviolet radiation

This research examines the influence of cloud on the cataract effective UV (UV_Cat) irradiances on a horizontal plane over an extended period of 12months that included the range of cloud conditions, solar zenith angle (SZA) and ozone conditions experienced over that time. The data were collected at five minute intervals. Cloud modification factors were determined from the influence of clouds on the global broadband solar radiation and these were applied to the cloud free cataract effective UV to evaluate the UV_Cat irradiances on a horizontal plane for all cloud conditions. A comparison of the measured and calculated UV_Cat irradiances for the 2004 data set in the range of SZA of 70° or less provided an R² value of 0.85. The data in the first 6months of 2005 for an SZA of 70° or less that were at a different time to that when the technique was developed provided an R² value of 0.83 for the comparison of the measured and calculated UV_Cat irradiances.     

斑岩铜矿围岩蚀变绿帘石的光谱特征——以德兴铜矿富家坞矿区为例

斑岩型矿床具有十分广泛和明显的热液蚀变带,青磐岩化通常位于中心钾化带外侧,可分为三个亚带,绿帘石是青磐岩化带最重要的蚀变矿物之一,但目前对青磐岩化带内各亚带之中的绿帘石的特征研究较为薄弱。近年来,短波红外光谱技术(SWIR)已经广泛应用于热液蚀变矿物的识别,但由于短波红外光谱通过识别特定的基团进而识别含此基团的矿物,难以识别斑岩中部分关键蚀变矿物,如钾长石、钠长石和硬石膏。X射线衍射技术(XRD)能识别大部分蚀变矿物,可对红外光谱技术在斑岩矿床中的应用进行补充。本文以江西省德兴地区富家坞矿区为研究对象,提出应用SWIR和XRD分析辅助蚀变填图。富家坞矿区发育了十分广泛的绿帘石化,根据其共生矿物组合及空间分布,划分了三种绿帘石类型。第Ⅰ类:矿物组合为绿帘石-钠长石-石英-方解石,绿帘石和钠长石以脉状形式产出于钾化花岗闪长斑岩体内,穿切钾长石斑晶;第Ⅱ类:矿物组合为绿帘石±绿泥石-石英-方解石,绿帘石和绿泥石以集合体形式交代早期岩体内黑云母、斜长石的方式产出,并保留有原生矿物晶型,伴有方解石、石英等矿物;第Ⅲ类绿帘石共生矿物主要为石英、方解石、沸石等,含少量高岭石,主要呈不规则脉状,分布于蚀变花岗闪长斑岩外侧。通过对以上三类绿帘石进行系统SWIR和XRD分析,发现类型Ⅰ绿帘石大部分表现出较大的Fe-OH吸收峰位值(Pos2252 2255),类型Ⅱ和类型Ⅲ绿帘石大部分表现为较小的Fe-OH吸收峰位值(Pos2252 2255)。XRD结果显示绿帘石晶体特征更为明显,特征衍射峰位值{■13}晶面表现出相对集中的特征,但是次峰{022}晶面表现出一定的差异性,且绿帘石{022}晶面2. 40?衍射峰半高宽(FWHM-2)与绿帘石Dep2334/Dep2252值呈现负相关的关系。故本文认为绿帘石的次峰{022}晶面2. 40?衍射峰值及其半高宽(FWHM-2)可以作为讨论斑岩矿床围岩蚀变矿物绿帘石的结晶度的主要参数。三种绿帘石结晶指数的差异可能是热液流体演化过程中温度降低和距离岩体中心的远近造成的。     

海浪波面的信息熵与海浪的谱宽度参量

将信息熵（ＩｎｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎＥｎｔｒｏｐｙ）引入到浪波面的研究，通过谱的参量化，建立了谱宽度参量Ｐ，Ｒ，ε＾２，ｖ＾２与它们对应的信息熵之间的关系，这些谱宽度参量，皆可引人到波面与波高的分布函数之中，并指出谱宽度参量具有熵的含义，给出了海浪波面熵的一种合理表示。     

不同场地条件下的土层地震反应对比分析

选择新疆地区的地震动衰减关系,采用概率方法计算了位于同一构造区的两个场地(A场地和B场地)的地震危险性,两个场地以基岩峰值加速度为标志的场地地震危险性结果相近。通过现场勘察与检测,场地A与场地B均为岩性不同的两个一元结构,岩性分别以砂砾石和粉土为主。采用一维土层反应等效线性化的计算方法得出场地A和场地B的土层反应。通过地震反应谱的特征分析,表明硬场地和软场地的强度和周期(或频率)特征是不同的,同时讨论了它们测试与判定中存在的问题。     

全谱反演技术在山基掩星数据处理中的应用

山基掩星观测是一种探测特定区域气象数据的新技术。该文从山基掩星探测技术的概念出发,阐述了山基掩星探测技术的特点和优势,介绍了山基掩星观测数据几何光学反演方法; 在详细介绍全谱反演技术的基础上,提出了采用全谱反演技术来处理山基掩星观测数据的新方法。采用该方法对2005年8月在河北兴隆雾灵山获取的山基掩星观测试验探测数据进行了处理,成功获得了大气折射率剖面, 将全谱反演结果与几何光学反演结果和同时获取的时空匹配的探空数据进行了比对分析。结果表明:全谱反演结果与几何光学反演结果平均相对偏差小于2%,全谱反演结果偏小,标准偏差低于3%;全谱反演结果与常规探空结果的平均相对偏差为8.15%,全谱反演结果偏小,标准偏差为1.4%。     

校园典型地物波谱特性数据库系统研究

通过对山东科技大学若干典型地物如植被、水体、岩石的波谱特征测定、波谱图像处理,获得了较详细的地物波谱数据。结合当前地物波谱的研究现状及成果,建立了一个便于查询山东科技大学地物波谱特性的数据库系统。同时研究了地物波谱的动态变化规律,为进一步遥感数据分类等应用提供基础数据,为学生进行遥感实验提供基础资料。     

高能质子能谱特征在日冕物质抛射影响预报中的应用

日冕物质抛射(CME)的规模和对地有效性是地磁暴预报中重点关注的特征.本项研究的目的是通过对行星际高能质子通量和能谱的特征与演化规律的分析,得到CME对粒子的加速能力,评估CME可能对地磁场造成的影响.在工作中,统计分析了ACE/EPAM的1998—2010年的质子数据,对质子能谱进行了拟合,得到了能谱指数,并对能谱指数及其变化特征所对应的CME和地磁暴进行了相关统计.通过研究发现:(1)能谱指数随着太阳活动水平而变化,高年最大,达到-2.6,而且涨落幅度也达到±0.4,而在太阳活动低年则稳定在-3.0左右;(2)CME对粒子的加速对应着能谱指数的升高,幅度达到20%时,CME引起地磁暴的可能性较大;(3)冕洞高速流到达地球时,高能质子通量也会升高,但能谱指数同时会有下降;(4)以2004年全年的能谱指数为例,对能谱指数在地磁暴预报中的应用进行了评估,结论认为,能谱指数的升高是CME引发地磁暴的必要条件,可以作为地磁暴预报的参数使用.