扩建网极大条件密度估计及其方差分量估计公式

推导了扩建网极大条件密度估计公式及当扩建网含有误差独立的两类观测量时方差分量的Helmert型、Welsch型和Forstner型估计公式，并用一算例说明了其应用情况.     

Variance Component Estimation in Linear Inverse Ill-posed Models

Regularization has been applied by implicitly assuming that the weight matrix of measurements is known. If measurements are assumed to be heteroscedastic with different unknown variance components, all regularization techniques may not be proper to apply, unless techniques of variance component estimation are directly implemented. Although variance component estimation techniques have been proposed to simultaneously estimate the variance components and provide a means of regularization, the regularization parameter is treated as if it were also an extra variance component. In this paper, we assume no prior information on the model parameters and do not treat the regularization parameter as an extra variance component. Instead, we first analyze the biases of estimated variance components due to the regularization parameter and then propose bias-corrected variance component estimators. The results have shown that they work very well. Finally, we propose and investigate through simulations an iterative scheme to simultaneously estimate the variance components and the regularization parameter, in order to eliminate the effect of regularization parameter on variance components and the effect of incorrect prior weights or initial variance components on the regularization parameter.     

Pattern characteristics of Indian monsoon rainfall using principal component analysis (PCA)

In the present study the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to determine the dominant rainfall patterns from rainfall records over India. Pattern characteristics of seasonal monsoon rainfall (June–September) over India for the period 1940 to 1990 are studied for 68 stations. The stations have been chosen on the basis of their correlation with all India seasonal rainfall after taking the ‘t’ Student distribution test (5% level). The PCA is carried out on the rainfall data to find out the nature of rainfall distribution and percentage of variance is estimated. The first principal component explains 55.50% of the variance and exhibits factor of one positive value throughout the Indian subcontinent. It is characterized by an area of large positive variation between 10°N and 20°N extending through west coast of India. These types of patterns mostly occur due to the monsoon depression in the head Bay of Bengal and mid-tropospheric low over west coast of India. The analysis identifies the spatial and temporal characteristics of possible physical significance. The first eight principal component patterns explain for 96.70% of the total variance.     

福建沿海剪切波速与土层参数定量关系研究

通过对大量实测数据的分析，按照剪切波速与土层密度、标贯击数、土层埋深之间的关系特征，利用单因子及多因子回归分析方法，给出剪切波速与土层密度、标贯击数、土层埋深的定量关系。     

Transport of Temperature and Humidity Variance and Covariance in the Marine Surface Layer

In this paper we address the budget of potential temperature T and moisture mixing ratio q variances as well as the q-T covariance budget. We focus on the vertical transport and study the quantities contained in these terms. Estimates of transport terms are rare and to the best of our knowledge they have never been shown together in the literature. For this purpose an extensive set of humidity and temperature turbulence data from two heights in a marine environment has been analysed. We discuss and compare our results with results from earlier studies for a range of stability from near-neutral to unstable. Similarity and differences between T and q behaviour in the surface layer over water are presented.     

方差分量估计简化公式新探

给出方差分量估计的一个新的简化公式-多余观测分量平均匹配公式，讨论其统计性质，并通过实例验证其实用性。     

Hidden information within series of measurements — four examples from atmospheric science

Whether in classical networks such as meteorological networks of in more recent ones of atmospheric chemistry, a wealth of data is at hand. These data have been evaluated in a manner depending on the purpose of the network. However, much more information is hidden in these time series and waits for discovery. Only the imagination of scientists is needed. Four examples are given which lead to new information about the atmospheric aerosol and the behaviour of the atmosphere. These examples are: Atmospheric turbidity from sunshine recordings, Meteorological drainage area from the variance of observations, Location of point sources from air mass trajectories, and Total vertical ozone from turbidity measurements.     

基于多颗低轨卫星的SLR台站坐标几何解算方法

卫星激光测距（SLR）技术作为卫星精密定轨手段和轨道检核重要方法,激光反射器已经成为重力卫星和测高卫星等低轨卫星的基本载荷.经典的SLR台站坐标是使用动力学方法计算的,本文根据多颗低轨卫星（LEO）多历元的激光观测数据,采用几何方法开展地面SLR测站坐标计算.通过组建低轨卫星群实现对全球激光站的动态观测,为了合理配置不同低轨卫星间观测值权重,削弱低轨卫星群可能存在的系统性偏差,提出采用方差分量估计组合的最小二乘法进行解算.实测结果显示,解算出SLR台站坐标框架解与SLRF2014差异平均值在25.1 mm,外符合精度达到1~2 cm.该方法避免了复杂动力学模型,SLR台站坐标的几何计算方法既可以作为激光测站框架解算手段之一,同时将LEO卫星群作为空间并址站实现不同技术地球参考框架间的融合.     

方差分析叠加周期外推法在地震预测中的应用

首先介绍方差分析叠加周期外推法,并以郯庐地震带公元1400年以来40次MS5级以上地震为例说明方差分析叠加周期外推法的应用方法,应用该方法分析了不同区域、不同震级的地震序列。结果显示:郯庐断裂地震带、北京-渤海地震带、苏鲁皖交界地区、安徽地区的地震存在显著周期,从统计学的角度可以预测下一次地震的范围。而河北平原地震带、淮河地震带、华东地区的地震经度或纬度则不存在显著周期,无法外推下一次地震的范围。方差分析叠加周期外推法用于地震预测尚属于一种尝试。外推预测值与原始实测值虽然存在一定的误差,但方法的意义在于应用统计理论上把预测地点进行了定量化,缩小了监视范围。从某种意义上,还为研究地震机理,探索地震在时、空、强的演变规律上,提供研究方向。     

A New Soil Sampling Design in Coastal Saline Region Using EM38 and VQT Method

Spatial sampling design based on the variability and distribution of soil properties is an important issue with the progress in precision agriculture and soil ecology. Electromagnetic induction (type EM38) and variance quad‐tree (VQT) method were both applied to optimize the sampling scheme of soil salinity in a coastal reclamation field in north Jiangsu Province, China. Apparent soil electrical conductivity (EC_a) measured with EM38 was used as an ancillary variable and the spatial distribution of EC_a was used as priori information. The process and result of VQT algorithm analysis was illustrated and the obtained sampling strategy was validated using observed soil salinity. Then the spatial precision and sampling efficiency were evaluated. The result indicated that the spatial distribution of soil salinity produced with the VQT scheme was quite similar to that produced with total sampling sites, while sampling quantity of the former was reduced to approximately 1/2 of the latter. The spatial precision of VQT scheme was considerably higher than that of traditional grid method with respect to the same sampling number, and fewer samples were required for VQT scheme to obtain the same precision level. A 17.3% increase in sampling efficiency was achieved by VQT over grid method at the precision level of 90%. The VQT method was proved to be more efficient and economical because it can sample intensively or sparsely according to variation status in local areas. The associated application of EM38 and VQT method provides efficient tools and theoretical basis for saving sampling cost and improving sampling efficiency in coastal saline region and enriching soil ecology.