A new method for the estimation of variance components is presented. The proposed method combines the concept of maximum-likelihood
estimation with the Bayesian approach and facilitates computationally efficient introduction of prior information into the
estimation process.
Received: 22 April 1998 / Accepted: 19 April 1999 相似文献
The homogeneity of the flood frequency regime for a given pooling-group of sites is a fundamental assumption for many regional flood frequency analysis techniques. Assessing regional homogeneity is a critical step, which may be complicated by the presence of cross-correlation among flood sequences. The scientific literature proposes a number of statistical homogeneity tests and documents that inter-site correlation of floods is normally not negligible, but does not specifically address the impact of cross-correlation on such statistical tests. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of a well-known homogeneity test proposed in the scientific literature in the presence of inter-site cross-correlation through a series of Monte Carlo experiments. The numerical experiments enable us to comment on a possible theoretical correction for the test and to identify an empirical tool that accounts for the impact of inter-site cross-correlation of floods. 相似文献
We discuss the accuracy requirements for measuring mesoscale (roughly horizontal scales > 10 km or 5 to 10 times the planetary
boundary-layer (PBL) depth) fluxes in the convective PBL, and the ability of current research aircraft to achieve this accuracy.
We conclude that aircraft equipped with inertial nagivation systems capable of < 3 km hr−1 navigational accuracy are able to resolve mesoscale fluctuations in velocity, and thus variances and fluxes on the mesoscale.
We then discuss measurements of velocity and scalar spectra, and cospectra of vertical velocity with horizontal velocity components
and scalars, obtained from long flight legs with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Electra aircraft over the boreal
forest of Canada in summer during the BOreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS), over the tropical Pacific Ocean from the
Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE), and over the East China Sea during
wintertime cold-air outbreaks from the Air Mass Transformation Experiment (AMTEX). Each of these studies has somewhat different
forcings and boundary conditions, so we can compare their consequences on the spectra and cospectra. On average, we found
no significant scalar or momentum fluxes for horizontal scales > 10 km. We also develop a simple model based on observed
thermal structure to explain the phase angle between vertical velocity and the along-wind horizontal velocity as a function
of height, which shows good agreement with the observed phase angle in AMTEX.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献