Estimates of Reynolds stress in a highly energetic shelf sea

In recent years the use of Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) to estimate Reynolds stresses, using the so-called variance method, has become popular; and although there was great effort in studying the uncertainties on this technique, there were no reports in the main literature of its validity using independent measurements. This work reports on the comparison of ADCP and Acoustic Current Velocimeter (ADV) estimates of Reynolds stresses. The comparison of the ADCP and ADV is encouraging during periods when no strong waves were present with both the explained variance of 0.8 and the slope of the regression being 0.97. Nevertheless, when strong waves are present the method breaks down and the comparison between ADCP and ADV is very poor with R² =0.04.     

A Procedure for Estimating the Variance Function of Linear Models and for Checking the Appropriateness of Estimated Variances: A Case Study of GPS Carrier-phase Observations

In many applications of linear model theory, homogeneous variances are assumed. In practice, however, the variances are frequently heterogeneous. Therefore, to improve the results, the unknown variances have to be estimated. The appropriateness of the estimated variances has then to be checked by a suitable statistical test procedure. Such a procedure is also useful to study models of global positioning system (GPS) carrier-phase observations. While the functional model of GPS carrier-phase observations is widely accepted, the stochastic model is still under development. As well as the neglected correlations of GPS observations, a homogenous variance function is frequently assumed. In Bischoff et al. (J Geod 78:397–404, 2005), we showed by statistical testing that the assumption of constant variances is not appropriate. In this paper, we give a procedure to estimate an individual variance function for a pair of satellites and a procedure to check the appropriateness of the estimated variances. As an example, the approach is applied to double-differenced carrier-phase GPS observations.     

方差分量的极大验后估计

由概括函数模型出发,导出了适应于所有平差模型的方差分量的极大验后估计,这种估计实际上是先验方差与样本方差的凸组合。文中还给出了一个简单的数例,说明这种方法的可行性。     

Regularization of geopotential determination from satellite data by variance components

 Different types of present or future satellite data have to be combined by applying appropriate weighting for the determination of the gravity field of the Earth, for instance GPS observations for CHAMP with satellite to satellite tracking for the coming mission GRACE as well as gradiometer measurements for GOCE. In addition, the estimate of the geopotential has to be smoothed or regularized because of the inversion problem. It is proposed to solve these two tasks by Bayesian inference on variance components. The estimates of the variance components are computed by a stochastic estimator of the traces of matrices connected with the inverse of the matrix of normal equations, thus leading to a new method for determining variance components for large linear systems. The posterior density function for the variance components, weighting factors and regularization parameters are given in order to compute the confidence intervals for these quantities. Test computations with simulated gradiometer observations for GOCE and satellite to satellite tracking for GRACE show the validity of the approach. Received: 5 June 2001 / Accepted: 28 November 2001     

洛阳2001年春夏连旱及近半个世纪气候变化分析

利用1951－2001年洛阳降水与气温资料，分析了2001年春夏连旱的气候特征以及近半个世纪以来洛阳的气温、降水变化，得出洛阳气温越来越高、降水越来越少、气候逐渐向暖偏旱的方向发展的结论。     

基于噪声估计的卡尔曼滤波用于GPS卫星钟差预报研究

利用重叠哈达玛方差确定卫星钟噪声随机模型,采用顾及钟差随机噪声模型的卡尔曼滤波进行钟差预报分析,并与最小二乘预报算法相比较,得出以下结论:卡尔曼滤波进行1 d以内的短期预报时,精度达到亚纳秒级,优于最小二乘预报算法,在长期预报或拟合数据量较少时,最小二乘预报精度优于卡尔曼滤波。     

火山活动对热带高空温度变化的影响

本文利用序列回归分析、对比分析和个例分析法分析了火山活动对热带高空大气的温度效应. 主要结论为：火山活动影响最显著的高度是平流层70 hPa约22 km高空,由此高度向上或向下,火山活动的影响都逐渐减小;火山活动将引起平流层大气升温、对流层大气降温,其分界线大致位于对流层顶300 hPa附近;火山活动对于热带70 hPa高空温度距平变化的影响超过了总方差的457%;单独考察几次强火山活动（如阿贡火山、皮纳图博火山和厄尔奇冲火山等）的温度效应表明,在热带地区强火山爆发后的20个月内,对热带高空温度的影响超过了其距平变化的80%！成为该时段高空温度变化的决定性因素.     

Adaptive collocation with application in height system transformation

In collocation applications, the prior covariance matrices or weight matrices between the signals and the observations should be consistent to their uncertainties; otherwise, the solution of collocation will be distorted. To balance the covariance matrices of the signals and the observations, a new adaptive collocation estimator is thus derived in which the corresponding adaptive factor is constructed by the ratio of the variance components of the signals and the observations. A maximum likelihood estimator of the variance components is thus derived based on the collocation functional model and stochastic model. A simplified Helmert type estimator of the variance components for the collocation is also introduced and compared to the derived maximum likelihood type estimator. Reasonable and consistent covariance matrices of the signals and the observations are arrived through the adjustment of the adaptive factor. The new adaptive collocation with related adaptive factor constructed by the derived variance components is applied in a transformation between the geodetic height derived by GPS and orthometric height. It is shown that the adaptive collocation is not only simple in calculation but also effective in balancing the contribution of observations and the signals in the collocation model.     

A Bayesian approach to the detection of gross errors based on posterior probability

Existing methods for gross error detection, based on the mean shift model or the variance inflation model, have hardly considered or taken advantage of the potential prior information on the unknown parameters. This paper puts forward a Bayesian approach for gross error detection when prior information on the unknown parameters is available. Firstly, based on the basic principle of Bayesian statistical inference, the Bayesian method—posterior probability method—for the detection of gross errors is established. Secondly, considering either non-informative priors or normal-gamma priors on the unknown parameters, the computational formula of the posterior probability is given for both the mean shift model and the variance inflation model, respectively, under the condition of unequal weight and independent observations. Finally, as an example, a triangulation network is computed and analyzed, which shows that the method given here is feasible.     

西北太平洋海温与广东省汛期降水的关系

将西北太平洋分为８个海区，分析了广东省汛期（４－９月）降水与各海区海温的关系，并用因子分析法对９－２月各海区的相互关系进行了分析，发现降维后头４个主因子的方差贡献占总方差的８２．２３％；对主因子的载荷矩阵进行了极大方差旋转，对头４个主因子的物理意义进行了初步的解释。最后建立了汛期各月降水与海温的预报方程，经试报使用，高于近１０年的平均业务预报水平，对广东省的汛期降水短期气候预测有较好的参考价值。