A Retrospective Analysis of Ozone Formation in the Lower Fraser Valley,British Columbia,Canada. Part I: Dynamical Model Evaluation

We conduct a retrospective study of ozone formation in the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV), using numerical models, observations, and emission inventories in order to understand relationships between reductions in local precursor emissions and episodic ozone concentrations. Because there appears to be little or no impact from precursor emissions upwind of the LFV during ozone episodes and because background concentrations of ozone and its precursors are generally from the North Pacific Ocean and quite low, summertime ozone formation in the LFV is mostly caused by local emissions. The observed change in behaviour of ozone formation must, therefore, arise from reductions in local precursor emissions. We exploit the observed changing precursor emission–ozone concentration relationship to perform a dynamical model evaluation. Complicating the analyses are an observed shift in the population patterns within the valley over the last 25 years and a small but documented change in the tropospheric background concentration of ozone. Ozone formation for four episodes, which capture the observed changes in ozone reduction and the different meteorological types that occur during LFV ozone events, are investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system. In order to provide realistic simulations of past events, the SMOKE emission inventory is adjusted to account for temporal changes in the amount of emissions and locations of emission sources. Model output is compared with continuous observations, data collected from field campaigns, and previous modelling efforts. The WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ modelling framework is able to capture the changes in both the magnitude of the ozone concentrations and its spatial behaviour over the period of study. Many of the simulations show that the highest ozone concentrations occur outside the area sampled by the fixed monitoring network and within the LFV's numerous tributary valleys. Not all modelled episodes achieved the same agreement with observations and some of these discrepancies are likely related to shortcomings in the meteorological modelling. The model consistently overpredicts ozone at a number of stations within the City of Vancouver and underpredicts daytime NO_x concentrations there. Both results are consistent with a deficiency in NO_x emissions. The model shows a changing bias over time which also suggests uncertainties in the emission backcasting.

RÉSUMÉ?[Traduit par la rédaction] Nous menons une étude rétrospective de la formation de l'ozone dans le vallée du bas Fraser (VBF) à l'aide de modèles numériques, d'observations et d'inventaires d’émissions dans le but de comprendre les relations entre les réductions dans les émissions locales de polluants précurseurs et les concentrations épisodiques d'ozone. Parce qu'il semble n'y avoir que peu ou pas d'impact des émissions de polluants précurseurs en amont de la VBF durant les épisodes d'ozone et parce que les concentrations de fond de l'ozone et de ses précurseurs proviennent généralement du Pacifique Nord et sont très faibles, la formation d'ozone en été dans la VBF est principalement attribuable aux émissions locales. Le changement de comportement observé dans la formation d'ozone doit par conséquent résulter de réductions dans les émissions locales de précurseurs. Nous exploitons la relation changeante observée entre les émissions de précurseurs et la concentration de l'ozone pour effectuer une évaluation par modèle dynamique. Un déplacement observé dans les configurations de population à l'intérieur de la vallée au cours des 25 dernières années et un changement, petit mais documenté, dans la concentration troposphérique de fond de l'ozone viennent compliquer les analyses. Nous étudions la formation d'ozone lors de quatre épisodes qui capturent les changements observés dans la réduction d'ozone et les différents types météorologiques qui se produisent pendant les événements d'ozone dans la VBF en nous servant du système de modélisation SMOKE (Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions) – CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) du WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting). Afin de fournir des simulations réalistes des événements passés, nous avons ajusté l'inventaire d’émissions SMOKE pour tenir compte des changements au cours du temps dans la quantité d’émissions et dans la position des sources d’émissions. Nous comparons la sortie du modèle avec les observations continues, les données recueillies lors d’études sur le terrain et les efforts de modélisation précédents. Le cadre de modélisation WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ est capable de capturer les changements dans la grandeur des concentrations d'ozone ainsi que dans son comportement spatial durant la période de l’étude. Plusieurs des simulations montrent que les plus fortes concentrations d'ozone se produisent en dehors de la région échantillonnée par le réseau fixe de surveillance et à l'intérieur des nombreuses vallées affluentes de la VBF. Tous les épisodes modélisés n'ont pas exhibé le même accord avec les observations et certaines de ces divergences sont vraisemblablement dues à des lacunes dans la modélisation météorologique. Le modèle surprévoit constamment l'ozone à certaines stations dans la ville de Vancouver et sous-prévoit les concentrations de NO_x le jour à cet endroit. Les deux résultats sont cohérents avec un déficit dans les émissions de NO_x. Le modèle montre un biais qui change avec le temps, ce qui porte à croire à des incertitudes dans les émissions rétrospectives.     

THE NON‐PENNSYLVANIA TOWN: DIFFUSION OF URBAN PLAN FORMS IN THE AMERICAN WEST*

ABSTRACT. Wilbur Zelinsky's classic 1977 account of the Pennsylvania town as a cultural place type–the urban component of the nationally influential Pennsylvanian culture region–acknowledged that it was not exported intact across the successive western frontiers of the United States. But, aside from Edward Price's specialized study of courthouse squares, we know little that is systematic about how town‐planning ideas diffused across the continent. This investigation offers evidence from the Willamette Valley in Oregon of the eventual variety and geographical distribution of town‐platting conventions that developed in this Pacific Coast “destination’ setting and the possible provenance in the Ohio Valley of certain early Oregonian town‐plan features. The evidence raises questions about the resilience of town‐planning conventions in light of the distance carried, cultural time lags, and changing ideas about best practice and local suitability.     

Valleys on Hecates Tholus, Mars: origin by basal melting of summit snowpack

Valley networks observed on the martian surface are found mostly on Noachian-aged highlands units, but a few occur on younger volcanic edifices. Enigmatically, they do not occur on all younger volcanoes of similar age or location. Using new data, we reanalyze the radially arrayed valleys on the flanks of Hecates Tholus, a Hesperian-aged shield volcano, and test the hypothesis that these valleys might have formed via basal melting of summit snowpack. We find that magmatic intrusions with reasonable geometries provide sufficient heat flux to cause basal melting of snowpack, with the resulting meltwater interpreted to be responsible for incision of the observed valleys. Valley morphology is similar to valleys observed adjacent to seasonally melting Antarctic Dry Valley glaciers formed on comparable slopes, supporting the hypothesis of a snowmelt origin. These relatively young valley networks are thus plausibly interpreted to form under circumstances in which summit snow accumulation was melted during one or more episodes of high localized heat flux.     

2003年淮河流域梅汛期首场大暴雨成因分析

利用T2 1 3模式的物理量场和北京大学的客观分析诊断系统对 2 0 0 3年淮河流域梅汛期首场大暴雨的成因进行了天气动力学诊断分析。结果表明 :向南运动的高层偏北风急流下沉支与低空急流上升支组成低涡切变系统是主要影响天气系统 ;水汽主要来源于孟加拉湾和南海 ,但东部海区水汽输送也不可忽视。强暴雨出现在中低层辐合、高层辐散的正涡度中心下方和负涡度中心西侧 ,并与湿位涡高值中心相吻合 ,对暴雨预报有指示意义 ;低层辐合区、水汽供应和低层平流锋生的触发作用是强降水维持的主要原因     

与长江流域旱涝相联系的全球低频环流场

通过对梅雨前后低频风场和速度势场的分析，发现全低频风场 仅在长江流域的旱年及涝年表现现显著的不同，而且在同一年的夏季降水变化的不同位相中也表现出明显相反的环流分布。着眼于１９８０，１９８８年两年，我们发现这种不同与低频速度势场的波动有关。１９８０年降水与东亚季风区内人工频振荡的北传以 半球高纬的涡旋列不断东移相联系。而１９８８年降水变化则是与源于热带太平洋中部的小代频涡旋北进发展有密切的关系。     

淮河流域持续性强降水的重要前期信号

利用淮河流域4省20—20时逐日降水量资料,NCEP再分析500 hPa高度场资料,对1961—2006年淮河流域持续性强降水过程进行界定,并分析了持续性强降水前期、过程中的中高纬度阻塞高压发展变化。结果发现：平均而言6月29日至7月25日为淮河流域降水最集中的时段,持续性强降水过程大多发生在6月中旬到7月中旬;淮河流域持续性强降水的重要前期信号为：降水开始前一阶段乌拉尔山附近均有明显的阻塞形势出现,双阻形势居多,而持续性强降水期间乌拉尔山附近阻高减弱,贝加尔湖以北到鄂霍茨克海附近的阻高偏强,单阻居多,持续性强降水大多开始于乌拉尔山附近阻高指数锐减后的2～5天;持续性强降水年份乌拉尔山附近阻塞高压大多存在15～30天左右的主要振荡周期,绝大多数年份乌拉尔山附近阻塞高压和180°E附近阻高在强降水发生之前开始出现西退的现象。淮河流域持续性强降水过程的环流特征对把握淮河流域的强降水特点及预报前兆信号有实际意义,为淮河流域持续性强降水预报提供了依据,具有重要的应用价值。     

A refined understanding of the paleoenvironmental history recorded at the Okanagan Centre section,an MIS 4 stratotype,south‐central British Columbia,Canada

The Okanagan Centre section is the stratotype for marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 4 sediments (Okanagan Centre Drift) in the southern interior of British Columbia, Canada. Previous work suggested that these sediments record two glacial and two interglacial cycles. This study reports on detailed sedimentological and geochronological investigations of lithostratigraphic units comprising the Okanagan Centre sequence, revealing successive deposition of subaqueous and subaerial outwash, a subglacial till and glaciolacustrine sediments during MIS 4. A limiting optical age of 113 ± 8 ka defines the base of this sequence. Sedimentological, paleopedological, optical dating and tephrochronological data from sediments near the middle of the sequence reveal soil development (MIS 3) in eolian sediments deposited on a river terrace overlying a deglaciated surface. Within these sediments, identification of Mt. St. Helens set C tephra suggest sedimentation between 50 and 35k ¹⁴C a BP. Optical dating corroborates the tephrochronology and suggests that this surface formed after ～52 ± 7 ka. The record of MIS 2 glaciation is restricted to deglaciation, and overlies MIS 3 sediments above an unconformity possibly related to regional subglacial meltwater erosion. Eolian sediments containing Mt Mazama set O tephra (～7.62k cal a BP) cap the sequence.     

Regional thermal history of the Lennard shelf,Canning Basin,from apatite fission track analysis: Implications for the formation of Pb‐Zn ore deposits

Zinc mineralization in Devonian carbonates of the Lennard Shelf, northern Canning Basin is similar in many respects to that of the Mississippi Valley‐type including estimated minimum temperatures of sulphide precipitation between 70 and 110°C. Apparent apatite fission track ages for Precambrian granitic basement and for detrital apatites in Devonian carbonates in and near Pb‐Zn mineralization generally range between 260 and 340 Ma, with Precambrian samples tending to have slightly older apatite fission track ages than the Devonian carbonates. These apparent ages are younger than the stratigraphic age of the material analysed, indicating that appreciable annealing of fission tracks in apatite has occurred in post‐Devonian times. Mean horizontal confined track lengths are 12–13 μm for most samples and preclude attaching any ‘event’ significance to the fission track ages. Studies of well sequences (Grevillea 1 and Kennedia 1) indicate a period of rapid uplift in the area during the Late Triassic/Early Jurassic. Assuming a constant geothermal gradient of 30°C/km, approximately 1.5 km of uplift and erosion is estimated. Immediate thermal effects related to Miocene lamproite intrusion into Precambrian basement appear to be restricted to within 200 m of the contact zone.

For outcropping Devonian carbonates, a thermal history is proposed involving burial in the Late Palaeozoic/Early Mesozoic, followed by uplift and cooling from peak temperatures around 70–80°C in mid‐Mesozoic times. With reference to this period of burial, Pb‐Zn occurrences represent thermal anomalies when reported fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures are compared with the estimated peak temperatures. However the possibility of a phase of higher temperatures during the Late Devonian/ Early Carboniferous is suggested by the apatite fission track results, in which case sulphide mineralization may reflect ambient regional temperatures if it formed at that time. The absence of enhanced annealing effects in detrital apatites proximal to Pb‐Zn deposits suggests that either sulphide mineralization preceded or accompanied peak regional temperatures suspected during the Late Devonian/Early Carboniferous, or that the mineralizing episodes were of too short a duration to significantly anneal fission tracks in apatite.     

Thermal insulation and geothermal targeting,with specific reference to coal-bearing basins

Coal-bearing basins have increased economic potential for enhanced geothermal systems owing to thermal insulation provided by the coal and associated organic-rich sediments. In such insulation-dominated prospects, heat refraction effects associated with buried insulators can produce negative surface heat-flow anomalies in the most prospective areas. The Latrobe Valley in Victoria, Australia, is an archetypal coal basin. Using numerical simulations incorporating the coal geometries, we show that the Latrobe Valley coals might elevate the temperature of the rocks at 4 km depth by some 30–35°C relative to a ‘base’ condition with no coal. This effectively boosts the average geothermal gradient by about 30%, with a corresponding improvement in the economic case for geothermal energy in the Latrobe Valley.