Run-up on a body in waves and current. Fully nonlinear and finite-order calculations

Run-up on a large fixed body in waves and current have been calculated using both a fully nonlinear time-domain boundary element model and a finite-order time-domain boundary element model, the latter being correct to second order in the wave steepness and to first-order in the current strength. The results from the two models agree well in the low Froude number and low wave steepness regime. This serves as a cross-validation of the two boundary element models. Furthermore, the two sets of data provide an excellent method for examining the domain of validity for the second-order method. Such limits are, for the case studied, given in terms of maximum Froude number and maximum wave steepness.     

Biomarkers and environmental risk assessment: guiding principles from the human health field

Although the potential use of biomarkers within environmental risk assessment (ERA) has long been recognised their routine use is less advanced compared with clinical human health risk assessment, where a number of familiar biomarkers (such as blood pressure and serum cholesterol) are in common usage. We have examined how biomarkers are incorporated into human health risk assessment and have identified several 'required elements'. These include identification of the (clinical) assessment endpoint at the outset, rational selection of the biomarker(s) (the measurement endpoint), biomarker 'validation' (e.g. QA/QC) and biomarker 'qualification' (evidence linking the measurement and assessment endpoints). We discuss these elements in detail and propose that their adoption will facilitate the routine use of biomarkers in environmental risk assessment. Furthermore, our analysis highlights the need for cooperation between those working with biomarkers within human and environmental risk assessment to exchange best practice between common disciplines for mutual advantage.     

Investigation and validation of algorithms for estimating land surface temperature from Sentinel-3 SLSTR data

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important indicator of global ecological environment and climate change. The Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) onboard the recently launched Sentinel-3 satellites provides high-quality observations for estimating global LST. The algorithm of the official SLSTR LST product is a split-window algorithm (SWA) that implicitly assumes and utilizes knowledge of land surface emissivity (LSE). The main objective of this study is to investigate alternative SLSTR LST retrieval algorithms with an explicit use of LSE. Seventeen widely accepted SWAs, which explicitly utilize LSE, were selected as candidate algorithms. First, the SWAs were trained using a comprehensive global simulation dataset. Then, using simulation data as well as in-situ LST, the SWAs were evaluated according to their sensitivity and accuracy: eleven algorithms showed good training accuracy and nine of them exhibited low sensitivity to uncertainties in LSE and column water vapor content. Evaluation based on two global simulation datasets and a regional simulation dataset showed that these nine SWAs had similar accuracy with negligible systematic errors and RMSEs lower than 1.0 K. Validation based on in-situ LST obtained for six sites further confirmed the similar accuracies of the SWAs, with the lowest RMSE ranges of 1.57–1.62 K and 0.49−0.61 K for Gobabeb and Lake Constance, respectively. While the best two SWAs usually yielded good accuracy, the official SLSTR LST generally had lower accuracy. The SWAs identified and described in this study may serve as alternative algorithms for retrieving LST products from SLSTR data.     

Comparison of landslide susceptibility based on a decision-tree model and actual landslide occurrence: The Akaishi Mountains, Japan

This paper proposes a statistical decision-tree model to analyze landslide susceptibility in a wide area of the Akaishi Mountains, Japan. The objectives of this study were to validate the decision-tree model by comparing landslide susceptibility and actual landslide occurrence, and to reveal the relationships among landslide occurrence, topography, and geology. Landslide susceptibility was examined through ensemble learning with a decision tree. Decision trees are advantageous in that estimation processes and order of important explanatory variables are explicitly represented by the tree structures. Topographic characteristics (elevation, slope angle, profile curvature, plan curvature, and dissection and undissection height) and geological data were used as the explanatory variables. These topographic characteristics were calculated from digital elevation models (DEMs). The objective variables were landslide occurrence and reactivation data between 1992 and 2002 that were depicted by satellite image analysis. Landslide susceptibility was validated by comparing actual data on landslides that occurred and reactivated after the model was constructed (between 2002 and 2004).This study revealed that, from 2002 to 2004, landslides tended to occur and reactivate in catchments with high landslide susceptibility. The landslide susceptibility map thus depicts the actual landslide occurrence and reactivation in the Akaishi Mountains. This result indicates that the decision-tree model has appropriate accuracy for estimating the probabilities of future landslides. The tree structure indicates that landslides occurred and reactivated frequently in the catchments that had an average slope angle exceeding ca. 29° and a mode of slope angle exceeding 33°, which agree well with previous studies. A decision tree also quantitatively expresses important explanatory variables at the higher order of the tree structure.     

德州70 cm高度气温与地面温度的关系初探

利用统计学和气象学原理,对德州2008年1月1日—12月31日德州70 cm高度的气温(用T₇₀表示)与地面温度（用T₀表示）中08、14时和20时及日平均资料进行分析。结果表明：冬半年08时T₇₀＞T₀（或T₇₀≈T₀）;夏半年T₇₀＜T₀,6月差值最大,为-2.6℃。14时全年都是T₇₀＜T₀,3月差值最大,为-12.1℃。20时全年基本都是T₇₀＞T₀。就日平均而言,全年都是T₇₀＜T₀。运用回归分析法建立了以T₀为基础的T₇₀预测模型,经检验表明,3—9月预测准确率较高,可以满足当地农事需要。     

Validation and comparison of Advanced Differential Interferometry Techniques: Murcia metropolitan area case study

This paper is focused on the analysis of the performance of Stable Point Network (SPN) and Coherent Pixel Technique (CPT), which are Advanced Differential Interferometry Techniques (A-DInSAR) that estimate, among other results, mean deformation velocity maps of the ground surface and displacement time series from a SAR dataset. The test site is the metropolitan area of the city of Murcia (Spain) where a moderate slow subsidence induced by the overexploitation of aquifers is present. SAR data acquired between July 1995 and August 2005 from ERS and ENVISAT sensors have been processed by the SPN and CPT techniques and compared with in situ instrumental measurements assumed as reference. Experimental results have shown that both SPN and CPT techniques provide estimates of the deformation evolution in time with an absolute difference below 6 mm consistently in all comparisons: SPN vs extensometer, CPT vs extensometer and SPN vs CPT. The proposed validation and comparison experiment between both A-DInSAR techniques has been useful to observe their differences and complementarities.     

2009-18年西北太平洋区域海洋再分析CORA1.0产品研制及检验

在51年(1958-2008)西北太平洋区域海洋再分析CORA1.0产品的基础上,改进了模式配置和同化方法,研制了2009-18年的CORA产品并对其进行以下检验:(1)温盐和海表高度异常均方根误差分布检验;(2)35°N处温度断面分布检验;(3)再分析流场和表漂浮标轨迹对比检验.结果显示,2009-18年的CORA产品可以再现海洋要素长时间序列,时空多尺度的变化特征,为研究特征海洋现象和过程提供背景信息.     

44 Years Hindcast of the sea level and circulation in the Baltic Sea

The subject of the investigation was the multiyear hindcast of the sea level elevations and currents over the Baltic Sea. The approach follows to the HIPOCAS project conception and contained the 3D hydrodynamic model using boundary conditions from the atmosphere and catchment for 44-year period referring to the second half of the 20th century.     

Research on the Characteristics and Repeatability of Strong Earthquake Activity in Sichuan-Yunnan

According to the method for predicting strong earthquakes using seismicity patterns, this paper summarizes the seismicity anomalies, generally called anomalous seismicity patterns, as the basis for prediction based on some historical data in the Sichuan-Yunnan seismic zone. Using our results, it can be confirmed that these anomaly patterns, which reflect the features of the late stage of strong earthquake preparation process and stress release in the main shock rupture zone, did exist before many earthquake cases. This paper also introduced the characteristics of seismic repeatability and its validation result, and discussed the mechanism of repeatability, which will have an application value for strong earthquake tendency prediction.