三代玉米螟发生程度和卵峰日的海温预报模式

研究了北太平洋海温与鲁西南第三代玉米螟发生程度、卵峰日的相关性,找出了优势相关区。利用优势相关区中相关最显著的海温因子建立了预报模式,预报时效可提前２０ｄ以上。经检验,应用效果良好。     

氦素定年技术、氦热年代学及其在地质中的应用

本文介绍了氦同位素定年技术和氦热年代学,说明了该方法的理论基础和技术要求,以及其在较小幅度剥露作用研究、古地貌研究和年轻地质体定年等方面的应用情况和前景.      

Dating Methods of Cold-water Corals and Their Application in Reconstructing Carbon-reservoir Ages of Intermediate and Deep Oceans

Establishing a precise chorology is a critical issue when employing cold-water coral as paleoenvironmental archives. Currently, U-Th, ¹⁴C and ²¹⁰Pb dating techniques are the most frequently used methods. The high-magnesium calcite skeleton of bamboo coral has clear growth bands, which is appropriate for ¹⁴C and ²¹⁰Pb dating methods and holds a great potential to be high-resolution archives of mid-to-deep ocean evolution. Aragonitic stony coral is appropriate for both U-Th and ¹⁴C dating methods, which is valuable in paleoceanographic research. Because the U-Th method can provide the absolute chronology of coral samples, it can further be used to calculate the ¹⁴C age of ocean carbon reservoirs. Therefore, U-Th and ¹⁴C dating results of stony coral are currently the most reliable data for exploring the evolution of ocean carbon reservoirs through the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. It has been found that the ¹⁴C ventilation ages of intermediate water masses of the equatorial Atlantic and Southern Ocean significantly decreased at the end of the Heinrich Stadial 1. This suggests a massive carbon transfer from deep oceans to the atmosphere, or the Atlantic intermediate depths were ventilated by the southern- and the northern-sourced water masses, respectively, before and after the Heinrich Stadial 1.     

从历史上的带头地震看1998年1月10日张北尚义地震的发震日期

用我们在１９９０年提出的带头地震,即异年倍九法来讨论１９９８年１月１０日张北尚义６．２级地震的发震日期,以供今后在临震预报中参考。     

地下水水位动态预测新方法——数据处理组合法

针对地下水的周期性水位动态变化特征,首次将数据处理方法应用于地下水水位动态预测中,并以江西抚州地区水位为例,进行了水位预测。     

PhotoScan在无人机遥感影像数据处理中的应用

PhotoScan是俄罗斯生产的一套用于摄影后处理软件,具有自动化、并行处理等特点。本文基于PhotoScan与无人机遥感影像进行测试,结合实际经验提出一种快速生产DOM的方法,可为相关部门生产提供一定的指导与技术支持。     

华南前汛期起讫日期的年际变化及与前汛期降水的关系

根据国家气候中心最新颁布的华南前汛期业务监测标准,采用小波分析、合成分析、相关分析等统计方法研究了1961~2014年华南前汛期入汛日期、出汛日期、持续时间及前汛期累计降水量异常的变异特征。结果表明：华南前汛期入汛日期的年际变化特征主要表现为7~8 a及准2 a周期,年代际变化特征主要表现为20世纪60至70年代入汛偏晚,80年代入汛偏早;华南前汛期出汛日期的年际变化特征主要表现为6~7 a周期,年代际变化特征表现为20世纪60年代中期前出汛偏早,70年代中期以来出汛偏早。华南前汛期入汛早晚对其持续时间及累计降水量有很好的指示意义,表现为入汛越早,华南前汛期持续时间偏长的可能性越大,对应前汛期累计降水量偏多。     

Emergence and petrology of the Mendocino Ridge

The Mendocino Fracture Zone, a 3,000-km-long transform fault, extends from the San Andreas Fault at Cape Mendocino, California due west into the central Pacific basin. The shallow crest of this fracture zone, known as the Mendocino Ridge, rises to within 1,100 m of the sea surface at 270 km west of the California Coast. Rounded basalt pebbles and cobbles, indicative of a beach environment, are the dominant lithology at two locations on the crest of Mendocino Ridge and a⁴⁰Ar/³⁹ Ar incremental heating age of 11.0 ± 1.0 million years was determined for one of the these cobbles. This basalt must have been erupted on the Gorda Ridge because the crust immediately to the south of the fracture zone is older than 27 Ma. This age also implies that the crest of Mendocino Ridge was at sea level and would have blocked Pacific Ocean eastern boundary currents and affected the climate of the North American continent at some time since the late Miocene. Basalts from the Mendocino Fracture Zone (MFZ) are FeTi basalts similar to those commonly found at intersections of mid-ocean ridges and fracture zones. These basalts are chemically distinct from the nearby Gorda Ridge but they could have been derived from the same mantle source as the Gorda Ridge basalts. The location of the 11 Ma basalt suggests that Mendocino Ridge was transferred from the Gorda Plate to the Pacific Plate and the southern end of Gorda Ridge was truncated by a northward jump in the transform fault of MFZ.     

东北冷涡降水集中期的客观识别研究

基于区域关键天气过程客观化识别和监测的需求及东北雨季应包括冷涡降水的事实,采用东北三省及内蒙古东四盟共147站逐日降水量资料,通过对东北区域多年平均5点平滑处理的逐日降水量序列的综合分析及对历年逐日滑动平均雨量的对比试验,确定了判别东北冷涡降水集中期开始日期的阈值及持续时间,进而研制了东北冷涡降水集中期开始日期的客观识别方法。基于该方法的客观识别,得到1981-2010年气候平均态的东北冷涡降水集中期的开始日期为每年的5月26日。同时,定义盛夏降水集中期开始日的前一日为冷涡降水集中期的结束日期,发现冷涡降水集中期的结束日期为6月25日。在此基础上,采用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析的风场、位势高度场资料,通过对东北冷涡降水集中期前、中和后期各层大气环流场及各系统的逐日变化特征的对比分析,验证了该客观识别方法的合理性。     

近20 a孟加拉湾海表温度变化对南海夏季风爆发早晚的影响

基于美国NOAA现代极高分辨率辐射仪(Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer)提供的1993—2012年逐日海表温度(SST)资料,利用季节经验正交函数(S-EOF)和相关分析等统计方法,研究了孟加拉湾海表温度变化对南海夏季风爆发的影响。结果表明,孟加拉湾的(6~14°N,85~95°E)海区海表温度变化对南海夏季风爆发早晚具有重要指示意义,该海区海表温度异常(SSTA)与南海夏季风的爆发日期存在密切的正相关,通过了0.05信度的显著性检验,即当孟加拉湾海表温度正(负)异常时,南海夏季风晚(早)爆发。应用德国马普气象研究所的ECHAM5全球大气环流模式在孟加拉湾关键海区进行了敏感性数值试验,发现在关键海区降低其5月海表温度02℃的情况下,南海夏季风爆发日期相应提前5 d左右,而在升高02℃情况下,南海夏季风推后10 d左右爆发。在孟加拉湾5月海表温度降低的情况下,促使80~100°E的越赤道气流增强,南海区域西风分量增强,进而促使南海夏季风提前爆发。