推理公式法在土耳其小流域设计洪水计算中的适应性分析

为分析推理公式法在土耳其小流域设计洪水计算中的适应性,首先分析了土耳其常用洪水计算方法 DSI Synthetic Method在设计降雨、产流规律、汇流模型的水文特点,并将DSI Synthetic Method与我国常用的两类推理公式法进行比较,探讨土耳其降雨径流关系与推理公式法汇流模型相结合进行小流域洪水计算的方法,最后通过土耳其工程实例将该方法与DSI Synthetic Method设计洪水计算成果进行比较。研究结果表明,改进的推理公式法能够将土耳其的设计降雨、产流规律和推理公式法汇流模型相结合,设计洪水计算成果能够符合当地实际情况。     

GIS-based approach for flood analysis: case study of Keçidere flash flood event (Turkey)

The purpose of this study is to explain the formation mechanism of the floods which occurred in the Keçidere basin in 2009. In this study, discharge data in between 1981 and 2009, digital elevation model (DEM), satellite images and field works were used as a main data sources. LPT3 was applied to 29-year maximum flow data to produce different flood return periods such as 2, 5, 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000-year flood. The DEM was created using 1:25,000 topographic contours with Topo to Raster interpolation techniques in geographical information systems (GIS). Land use and some geometric data were digitized using high resolution satellite images for hydraulic modelling purposes. Simulation of the 2009 flash flood event and different return periods flow data was done using one-dimensional hydraulic modelling with HEC-RAS. In the last phase, results obtained from the simulations and field works were compared based on fits statistics and mean absolute error in terms of extent and depth. An analysis of water extent and depth features observed during the highest flow ever measured in the basin revealed that the result overlapped with 500-year inundation extent. Overall, the results of the research indicate that GIS is an effective environment for floodplain mapping and analysis.     

Determination of snow water equivalent over the eastern part of Turkey using passive microwave data

Information on regional snow water equivalent (SWE) is required for the management of water generated from snowmelt. Modeling of SWE in the mountainous regions of eastern Turkey, one of the major headwaters of Euphrates–Tigris basin, has significant importance in forecasting snowmelt discharge, especially for optimum water usage. An assimilation process to produce daily SWE maps is developed based on Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) model and AMSR‐E passive microwave data. The characteristics of the HUT emission model are analyzed in depth and discussed with respect to the extinction coefficient function. A new extinction coefficient function for the HUT model is proposed to suit models for snow over mountainous areas. Performance of the modified model is checked against the original, other modified cases and ground truth data covering the 2003–2007 winter periods. A new approach to calculate grain size and density is integrated inside the developed data assimilation process. An extensive validation was successfully performed by means of snow data measured at ground stations during the 2008–2010 winter periods. The root mean square error of the data set for snow depth and SWE between January and March of the 2008–2010 periods compared with the respective AMSR‐E footprints indicated that errors for estimated snow depth and predicted SWE values were 16.92 cm and 40.91 mm, respectively, for the 3‐year period. Validation results were less satisfactory for SWE less than 75.0 mm and greater than 150.0 mm. An underestimation for SWE greater than 150 mm could not be resolved owing to the microwave signal saturation that is observed for dense snowpack. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real-time flood forecasting with the use of inadequate data

Abstract

A modelling scheme is developed for real-time flood forecasting. It is composed of (a) a rainfall forecasting model, (b) a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, and (c) a stochastic error model of the ARMA family for forecast error correction. Initialization of the rainfall-runoff model is based on running this model on a daily basis for a certain period prior to the flood onset while parameters of the error model are updated through the Recursive Least Squares algorithm. The scheme is suitable for the early stages of operation of flood forecasting systems in the presence of inadequate historical data. A validation framework is set up which simulates real-time flood forecasting conditions. Thus, the effects of the procedures for rainfall-runoff model initialization, forecast error correction and rainfall forecasting are assessed. Two well-known conceptual rainfall-runoff models (the Soil Moisture Accounting model of the US National Weather Service River Forecast Service—SMA-NWSRFS and TANK) together with data from a Greek basin are used for illustration purposes.     

Vegetation development in the Middle Euphrates and Upper Jazirah (Syria/Turkey) during the Bronze Age

Vegetation changes are reconstructed based on more than 51,000 charcoal fragments of more than 380 samples from nine Bronze Age sites in northern Syria and southern Turkey. In addition to fragment proportions, special attention was paid to the frequency of Pistacia relative to Quercus and Populus/Salix relative to Tamarix, fruit-tree ubiquity, and riverine diversity in order to gain an improved understanding of the human versus climatic impact on the vegetation. The results indicate that human impacts first took place within the riverine forest. This phase was followed by land clearing within the woodland steppe, especially in the northern portion of the study area. In the south near Emar, the woodland steppe probably disappeared by the Late Bronze Age. It is uncertain whether this was caused by aridification and/or human clearing. The northward shift of the Pistacia-woodland steppe is very likely a result of climatic drying that occurred throughout the entire period under investigation. Although increased deforestation is evident through time, the small proportions of imported wood indicate that local resources were still available.     

Homogeneity analysis of Turkish meteorological data set

The missing value interpolation and homogeneity analysis were performed on the meteorological data of Turkey. The data set has the observations of six variables: the maximum air temperature, the minimum air temperature, the mean air temperature, the total precipitation, the relative humidity and the local pressure of 232 stations for the period 1974–2002. The missing values on the monthly data set were estimated using two methods: the linear regression (LR) and the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Because of higher correlations between test and reference series, EM algorithm results were preferred. The homogeneity analysis was performed on the annual data using a relative test and four absolute homogeneity tests were used for the stations where non‐testable series were found due to the low correlation coefficients between the test and the reference series. A comparison was accomplished by the graphics where relative and absolute tests provided different outcomes. Absolute tests failed to detect the inhomogeneities in the precipitation series at the significance level 1%. Interestingly, most of the inhomogeneities detected on the temperature variables existed in the Aegean region of Turkey. It is considered that theseinhomogeneities were mostly caused by non‐natural effects such as relocation. Because of changes at topography at short distance in this region intensify non‐random characteristics of the temperature series when relocation occurs even in small distances. The marine effect, which causes artifical cooling effect due to sea breezes has important impact on temperature series and the orograhpy allows this impact go through the inner parts in this region. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

土耳其火山沉积硼矿床成矿条件综述

土耳其硼酸盐矿床,集中分布在该国西北的西安拉托尼亚地区。重要矿床有比加迪奇、凯斯特莱克、苏丹泽里、埃默特和基尔卡。这些矿床均发育于障壁山间盆地第三纪浅水湖相沉积中,是干旱、半干旱气候条件下非海洋环境的产物。除碳酸盐、硼酸盐等化学沉积之外,山间盆地还广泛接受碎屑沉积,如砾岩、砂岩、粘土、泥岩,以及大量火山碎屑岩、凝灰岩、层凝灰岩等。矿床不同,沉积学特征亦异,但第三纪沉积均具明显的旋回性或韵律性。所有矿床均与火山活动伴生,二者的密切程度超过世界任何硼酸盐矿床。中国辽吉硼矿带的火山沉积变质硼矿床,也许在变质前与前者在矿化上具有共性,只是后者强调了“变质”成矿。     

Eocene I-type magmatism in the Eastern Pontides,NE Turkey: insights into magma genesis and magma-tectonic evolution from whole-rock geochemistry,geochronology and isotope systematics

ABSTRACT

The Eastern Pontides orogenic belt in NE Turkey hosts numerous I-type plutons of Eocene epoch. Here, we report new U–Pb SHRIMP zircon ages and in situ zircon Lu-Hf isotopes along with bulk-rock geochemical and Sr-Nd-Pb-O isotope data from the Kemerlikda??, Ayd?ntepe and Pelitli plutons and mafic microgranular enclaves (MMEs) to constrain their parental melt source(s) and evolutionary processes. U-Pb SHRIMP zircon dating yielded crystallization ages between 45 and 44 Ma for the studied plutons and their MMEs. The plutons range from gabbro to granite and have I-type, medium to high-K calc-alkaline, and metaluminous to slightly peraluminous characteristics. On the primitive mantle-normalized multi-trace-element variations, the plutons and their MMEs are characterized by signi?cant enrichment in LILE/HFSE. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns of the plutons and their MMEs are close to each other and show moderate enrichment with variable negative Eu anomalies. The studied plutons have fairly homogeneous isotope composition (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i) = 0.70502 to 0.70560; εNd_(i) = +0.9 to – 1.4; δ¹⁸O = +5.0 to +8.7‰, εHf_(i) = – 2.2 to +13.5). The MMEs show medium to high-K calc-alkaline and metaluminous character. Although the isotope signatures of the MMEs (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i) = 0.70508 to 0.70542; εNd_(i) = +0.9 to ?1.1; δ¹⁸O = +5.8 to +8.0, εHf_(i) = +4.3 to +10.4) are very similar to those of the host rocks. Fractionation of plagioclase, amphibole, pyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides played an important role in the evolution of the plutons. The isotopic composition of the studied plutons and MMEs are similar to I-type plutons derived from mantle sources. The MMEs show incomplete magma mixing/mingling, representing small bodies of mafic parental magma. The parental magma(s) of the studied plutons were generated from the enriched lithospheric mantle and then modified by fractional crystallisation, and lesser assimilation and mixing/mingling in the crustal magma chambers.     

Sustainable development and management of an aquifer system in western Turkey

This study presents the establishment of sustainable development and management policies for the Küçük Menderes River Basin aquifer system in western Turkey. Geological, hydrogeological, and geophysical data are used conjunctively to define various hydrogeological units and their geometry. Distributions of hydraulic-parameter values and recharge are estimated by geostatistical methods and hydrologic simulations, respectively. A finite-difference groundwater flow model is used to represent the unconfined flow in the aquifer system. The model has been calibrated under steady state and transient conditions. The resulting model was used to test seven management scenarios for a planning period of 21 years to determine the so-called safe yield and sustainable yield of the aquifer system and to investigate the potential impacts of four planned surface water reservoirs on groundwater resources in the basin. The results demonstrate that the continuation of the present pumping rates exceeds both the safe yield and the sustainable yield of the aquifer system. Consequently, the growing need for irrigation water should be met by the construction of the planned surface water reservoirs and the implementation of efficient water management policies and plans.

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Resumen Este estudio presenta el establecimiento de políticas sustentables de desarrollo y gestión en el sistema acuífero de la cuenca del río Küçük Menderes, al Oeste de Turquía, para lo que se ha utilizado datos geológicos, hidrogeológicos y geofísicos de forma conjunta de cara a definir diversas unidades hidrogeológicas y su geometría. La distribución de los parámetros hidráulicos y de la recarga ha sido estimada mediante métodos geoestadísticos y simulaciones hidrológicas, respectivamente. Se ha empleado un modelo de las aguas subterráneas en diferencias finitas para representar el flujo no confinado en el sistema acuífero, el cual se ha calibrado bajo condiciones estacionarias y transitorias. El modelo resultante ha sido usado para contrastar siete escenarios de gestión durante un período de planificación de 21 años con el fin de determinar el punto de explotación segura y sustentable del sistema acuífero, así como para investigar los impactos potenciales sobre los recursos subterráneos de los cuatro embalses superficiales que se hallan en proyecto. Los resultados demuestran que el mantenimiento de las tasas actuales de extracción del acuífero supera tanto el régimen de bombeo seguro como el sustentable del sistema. Por consiguiente, se debería compensar la necesidad creciente de agua para riego con la construcción de los reservorios superficiales previstos y con la implementación de políticas y planes de gestión eficiente del agua.

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Résumé Cette étude présente la proposition dune politique de développement et de gestion durables du système aquifère du bassin du Petit Mendérès dans louest de la Turquie. Des données géologiques, hydrogéologiques et géophysiques ont été utilisées conjointement pour définir les différentes unités hydrogéologiques et leur géométrie. Les distributions des paramètres hydrauliques et de la recharge ont été estimées respectivement par des méthodes géostatistiques et des simulations hydrologiques. Un modèle découlement souterrain aux éléments finis a été utilisé pour représenter lécoulement non captif dans le système aquifère. Le modèle a été calibré dans des conditions de régimes permanent et transitoire. Le modèle résultant a servi à tester sept scénarios de gestion pour une période de programmation de 21 ans, afin de déterminer les débits de prélèvement sûr et durable dans le système aquifère et détudier les impacts potentiels de quatre réservoirs deau de surface en projet sur les eaux souterraines du bassin. Les résultats montrent que la poursuite des prélèvements au débit actuel excède aussi bien le débit dexploitation de sécurité que celui durable pour le système aquifère. Par conséquent, les besoins croissants deau pour lirrigation doivent être satisfaits par la construction des réservoirs projetés et par la mise en place de politiques et de plans de gestion de leau efficace.