The double-edged sword of learning from disasters: Mortality in the Tohoku tsunami

Learning from natural disasters is predominantly regarded as beneficial: Individuals and governments learn to cope and thereby reduce damage and loss of life in future disasters. We argue against this standard narrative and point to two principal ways in which learning from past disasters can have detrimental consequences: First, investment in protective infrastructures may not only stimulate settlement in hazard-prone areas but also foster a false impression of security, which can prevent individuals from fleeing to safe places when hazard strikes. Second, if disaster events in the past did not have catastrophic consequences, affected individuals do not take future events sufficiently seriously. As a consequence, learning from disasters is a double-edged sword that can prevent large scale damage and human loss most of the time but results in the worst case scenario when a disaster occurs at an unexpected scale and public preparedness measures fail. We demonstrate the devastating impact of misplaced trust in public preparedness measures and misleading lessons drawn from past experience for the case of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Our paper contributes to the literatures on ‘negative learning’ and ‘hazard maladaptation’ by demonstrating that a lack of past experience with tsunami mortality in a municipality substantively increases mortality in the Tohoku tsunami.     

Statistical Simulation of Boxing Day Tsunami of The Indian Ocean and a Predictive Equation for Beach Run up Heights Based on Work-Energy Theorem

The tsunami similar to the one that has occurred in December 26, 2004 (Boxing Day Tsunami) in the Indian Ocean is simulated using the expression derived from Modified Weibull Distribution (for maximum wave height simulation) for extreme wave height predictions. The tuning coefficient plays a significant role in estimating the tsunami heights at various stages. It follows well defined mathematical laws at different stages. It is time dependent in the first three stages and depth dependent in the last two stages. The beach run-up heights estimated by the expression derived from the work-energy relation are comparable with observed values with reasonable accuracy.     

Tsunami Travel Time Atlas for the Atlantic Ocean

Compared to the Pacific Ocean, tsunamis are rare both in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. However, the December 26, 2004, tsunami demonstrated that, no matter how rare they may be, when a major tsunami occurs, it could be very disastrous. The most basic information in tsunami warning center requires are charts showing tsunami travel times to various locations around the rim of the ocean. With this in mind, a tsunami travel time atlas for the Atlantic Ocean is in preparation. The Caribbean Sea is also included in this Atlas, as it is more or less a part of the Atlantic Basin.     

Analysis of the Tsunami of December 26, 2004, on the Kerala Coast of India—Part II: Arrival Times

The Tsunami of December 26, 2004, in the Indian Ocean arrived on the coast of Kerala in southwest India some three hours after the tsunami was generated. The tsunami activity persisted throughout that day and, in some locations, even into the early morning of the next day. Based on interviews with eye witnesses, arrival times of tsunami waves are presented here followed by some preliminary analysis of the results.     

Wave Dispersion Study in the Indian Ocean-Tsunami of December 26, 2004

A numerical study which takes into account wave dispersion effects has been carried out in the Indian Ocean to reproduce the initial stage of wave propagation of the tsunami event that occurred on December 26, 2004. Three different numerical models have been used: the nonlinear shallow water (nondispersive), the nonlinear Boussinesq, and the full Navier-Stokes aided by the volume of fluid method to track the free surface. Numerical model results are compared against each other. General features of the wave propagation agreed very well in all numerical studies. However some important differences are observed in the wave patterns, i.e., the development in time of the wave front is shown to be strongly connected to the dispersion effects. Discussions and conclusions are made about the spatial and temporal distribution of the free surface reaffirming that the dispersion mechanism is important for tsunami hazard mitigation.     

Ostracods as tsunami tracers in Holocene sequences

This review analyses the ostracod record in Holocene tsunami deposits, using an overview of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami impact on its recent populations and the associated tsunamigenic deposits, together with results from numerous investigations of other Holocene sequences. Different features such as the variability of the local assemblages, population density, species diversity, age population structure (e.g., percentages of adults and juvenile stages) or taphonomical signatures suggest that these microorganisms may be included amongst the most promising tracers of these high-energy events in marshes, lakes, lagoons or shallow marine areas.     

Tsunami deposits from the 1993 Southwest Hokkaido earthquake and the 1640 Hokkaido Komagatake eruption,northern Japan

The southwest Hokkaido tsunami of July 12th, 1993, left continuous onshore sand deposits along the west coast of Oshima Peninsuka, Hokkaido, northern Japan. We investigated spatial distribution and lithofacies of the new tsunami deposits for its identification of ancient tsunami deposits. An eyewitness acount and bent plants helped our interpretation of the onshore tsunami behavior. We regard the following properties as typical of the coastal tsunami sand deposits: (1) The deposits cover the surface almost continuously on gentle topography. (2) Deposit thicknesses and mean grain sizes descrease with distance from the sea. (3) Deposit thicknesses and lithofacies vary greatly across local surface undulation. (4) Graded bedding reflecting tsunami runup and backwash is present in thick deposits. (5) The deposits are widely distributed along the coast and extend inland several tens of meters to 100 m. We examined a candidate for the paleo-tsunami deposits associated with the 1640 Komagatake eruption, and confirmed that the similar patterns are typical of ancient tsunami deposits.     

Magnitude scale for the Central American tsunamis

Based on the tsunami data in the Central American region, the regional characteristic of tsunami magnitude scales is discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1900 to 1993. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale of the 1985 Mexico and 1992 Nicaragua tsunamis are determined to bem=2.5, judging from the tsunami height-distance diagram. The magnitude values of the Central American tsunamis are relatively small compared to earthquakes with similar size in other regions. However, there are a few large tsunamis generated by low-frequency earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake. Inundation heights of these unusual tsunamis are about 10 times higher than those of normal tsunamis for the same earthquake magnitude (M _s =6.9–7.2). The Central American tsunamis having magnitudem>1 have been observed by the Japanese tide stations, but the effect of directivity toward Japan is very small compared to that of the South American tsunamis.     

Worldwide environmental impacts from the eruption of Thera

The eruptions of Thera (Santorini) between 1628 and 1450 BC constituted a natural catastrophe unparalleled in all of history. The last major eruption in 1450 BC destroyed the entire Minoan Fleet at Crete at a time when the Minoans dominated the Mediterranean world. In addition, there had to be massive loss of life from ejecta gases, volcanic ash, bombs, and flows. The collapse of a majestic mountain into a caldera 15 km in diameter caused a giant ocean wave, a tsunami, that at its source was estimated in excess of 46 m high. The tsunami destroyed ships as far away as Crete (105 km) and killed thousands of people along the shorelines in the eastern Mediterranean area. At distant points in Asia Minor and Africa, there was darkness from ash fallout, lightning, and destructive earthquakes. Earthquake waves emanating from the epicenter near the ancient volcano were felt as far away as the Norwegian countries. These disturbances caused great physical damage in the eastern Mediterranean and along the rift valley system from Turkey to the south into central Africa. They caused major damage and fires in north Africa from Sinai to Alexandria, Egypt. Volcanic ash spread upward as a pillar of fire and clouds into the atmosphere and blocked out the sun for many days. The ash reached the stratosphere and moved around the world where the associated gases and fine particulate matter impacted the atmosphere, soils, and waters. Ground-hugging, billowing gases moved along the water surface and destroyed all life downwind, probably killing those who attempted to flee from Thera. The deadly gases probably reached the shores of north Africa. Climatic changes were the aftermath of the eruption and the atmospheric plume was to eventually affect the bristlecone pine of California; the bog oaks of Ireland, England, and Germany, and the grain crops of China. Historical eruptions at Krakatau, Tambora, Vesuvius, and, more currently, eruptions at Nevado del Ruiz, Pinatubo, and Mount Saint Helens, have done massive environmental damage but none can compare with the sociological, religious, economic, agricultural, and political impacts from Thera (Santorini). Major natural catastrophes that have occurred over historical time illustrate the force of nature and the impact on civilizations. Some examples of these are rains that flooded the Euphrates Valley during the time of Noah, and floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes in recent years, such as earthquakes in California and Hurricane Hugo on the east coast of the United States.     

印度洋大地震与海啸灾害综述

2004年12月26日8时58分,印尼苏门答腊岛附近海域发生M8.7地震（百年以来第5次大地震）,其引发的海啸波及了东南亚和南亚至少10个国家,截至2005年3月5日已造成28万人死亡和重大财产损失.这是自1964年3月以来世界上发生的最强烈地震,此次海啸是1900年以来这一地区发生的最大海啸.叙述了此次地震和海啸的破坏情况以及受灾国的应急救援工作和国际社会的反应.概述了地震海啸灾害及其研究简况.