金华市水资源承载力分析

从生态学角度出发,提出水资源承载力是在社会发展的某一阶段和生态系统良性循环的条件下,水资源对人类活动的最大支撑能力。指出目前金华市的水荒不是水源型缺水,而是水质型缺水和工程型缺水。根据20多年的历史数据和2020年全面建设小康社会的标准,利用系统动力学(SD)模型,仿真研究了金华市未来政策实施后水资源承载力的动态变化过程。同时指出,对于金华市来说,单方面追求经济的快速发展、以牺牲环境作为代价的高方案和把环境保护作为首要目标、经济慢速发展的低方案都是不可取的,只有经济发展和环境保护同时兼顾的中方案才是首选方案。     

Path following control system for a tanker ship model

A two-dimensional path following control system for autonomous marine surface vessels is presented. The guidance system is obtained through a way-point guidance scheme based on line-of-sight projection algorithm and the speed controller is achieved through state feedback linearization. A new approach concerning the calculation of a dynamic line-of-sight vector norm is presented which main idea is to improve the speed of the convergence of the vehicle to the desired path. The results obtained are compared with the traditional line-of-sight scheme. It is intended that the complete system will be tested and implemented in a model of the “Esso Osaka” tanker. The results of simulations are presented here showing the effectiveness of the system aiming in to be robust enough to perform tests either in tanks or lakes.     

新生相形成的模拟实验研究

通过模拟实验制备了硅酸盐类不溶性固体，从Ｘ射线衍射特征和红外光谱特征两方面看，制得的硅酸盐类与河口新生相成分，结构相似，表明铁水解成的β－ＦｅＯＯＨ胶体吸附Ｓｉ，Ａｌ，Ｍｇ，Ｋ等元素，经结构重组可形成硅酸盐矿物，这可能是河口体系新生相的形成原因。     

Numerical Simulation of North Indian Ocean State Prior to the Onset of SW Monsoon Using SSM/I Winds

The Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and currents are simulated over the north Indian Ocean, during the onset phase of southwest monsoon for the three years 1994, 1995, and 1996, using daily Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) winds and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) heat fluxes as forcings in the 2½ layer thermodynamic numerical ocean model. The results are discussed for the 30-day period from 16 May to 13 June for all the three years, to determine the ocean state during the onset phase of SW monsoon. The maximum variability in the simulated SST is found along the Somali coast, Indian coasts, and equatorial regions. The maximum SST in the North Arabian Sea is found to be greater than 30°C and minimum SST in the west equatorial region is 25°C during the onset phase of all three years. Model SSTs are in agreement with Reynolds SST. SST gradients in the north-south as well as in the east-west directions, west of 80°E are found to change significantly prior to the onset. It can be inferred from the study that the SST gradient of 2.5°C/2000 km is seen due north and due west of the region 2° - 7°S, 60° - 65°E, about 8 to 10 days prior to the arrival of SW monsoon near Kerala coast. Upper and lower layer circulation fields do not show prominent interannual variability.     

地下气体运移变化的物理化学机制研究

在河北省怀来县后郝窑地区，对地下气体运移变化的影响因素进行了野外模拟实验研究。选择３个试验点，对地下气体的扩散作用，物理化学影响因素及水压效应等进行了模拟实验，主要研究Ｈ２，ＣＯ２气体运移变化机制。实验研究表明，Ｈ２，ＣＯ２气体运移变化机制不尽相同，水压效应对Ｈ２，ＣＯ２等地下气体运移影响相当明显     

System identification for nonlinear maneuvering of large tankers using artificial neural network

This paper deals with the application of nonparametric system identification to a nonlinear maneuvering model for large tankers using artificial neural network method. The three coupled maneuvering equations in this model for large tankers contain linear and nonlinear terms and instead of attempting to determine the parameters (i.e. hydrodynamic derivatives) associated with nonlinear terms, all nonlinear terms are clubbed together to form one unknown time function per equation which are sought to be represented by the neural network coefficients. The time series used in training the network are obtained from simulated data of zigzag maneuvers and the proposed method has been applied to these data. The neural network scheme adopted in this work has one middle or hidden layer of neurons and it employs the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. Using the best choices for the number of hidden layer neurons, length of training data, convergence tolerance etc., the performance of the proposed neural network model has been investigated and conclusions drawn.     

Spatial policy and the behavior of fishermen

Fishery policy makers would often benefit from information on how a policy might change fishermen behavior before the policy is implemented. This paper contributes to the literature by comparing simulated behavioral response with actual response to a spatial policy using a discrete choice model of fishing location choice. The results point to the inherent problem of the simulation's inability to capture the fundamental change in the nature of the choice problem that occurs with the change in policy. Addressing this problem will be important as these models continue to be used to inform policy makers.     

Simulating a heavy metal spill under estuarine conditions: Effects on the clam Scrobicularia plana

We describe the effect of heavy metals Zn, Cd, Pb and Cu on the induction of methallothioneins on the clam Scrobicularia plana along a salinity gradient simulated under laboratory conditions. The clams were exposed to constant heavy metal concentrations in a dynamic estuary simulator during a 15-day assay to investigate possible induction of metal-binding proteins in them. The concentration of heavy metals in water was analysed. Clams were analysed for methallothionein concentrations. The speciation of Zn, Cd, Pb and Cu along the salinity gradient was modelled. Zn showed the highest concentrations and its prevalent species was the free ion. Intersite differences have been observed in methallothionein concentration and related to the salinity gradient. It seems that synthesis of methallothioneins is the result of physiological forces acting in concert with the changes in the chemical speciation of metals, owing to the trace metals uptake is controlled by means of an interaction of physiology and physicochemistry.     

Parameter identification of a compliant nonlinear SDOF system in random ocean waves by reverse MISO method

The determination of the drag and inertia coefficients, which enter into the wave force model given by Morison's equation, is particularly uncertain and difficult when a linear spectral model is used for ocean waves, and the structure is compliant and has nonlinear dynamic response. In this paper, a nonlinear System Identification method, called Reverse Multiple Inputs–Single Output (R–MISO) is applied to identify the hydrodynamic coefficients as well as the nonlinear stiffness parameter for a compliant single-degree-of-freedom system. Four different types of problems have been identified for use in various situations and the R–MISO has been applied to all of them. One of the problems requires iterative solution strategy to identify the parameters. The method has been found to be efficient in predicting the parameters with reasonable accuracy and has the potential for use in the laboratory experiments on compliant nonlinear offshore systems.     

不同边界层参数化方案在暴雨数值模拟中的对比分析

本文利用非静力平衡的中尺度模式(MM5),通过对一次华南锋前暖区暴雨的数值模拟,比较了3种边界层参数化方案的作用。结果表明：从24小时累积降水的分布来看,MRF方案的预报与实况对比效果最好,其次是Blaekadar高分辨率PBL模式,最差是no PBI,方案。分析MRF方案的输出结果,发现对应每个时刻的累积雨团上空,925hPa都有较强的辐合辐散偶极子与之相配合,而在300hPa则有较强的辐散。不同边界层方案模拟的辐散场有一定的差别,导致了降水的不同预报效果。