Possibilities of land use change analysis in a mountainous rural area: a methodological approach

Decreasing population density is a current trend in the European Union, and causes a lower environmental impact on the landscape. However, besides the desirable effect on the regeneration processes of semi-natural forest ecosystems, the lack of traditional management techniques can also lead to detrimental ecological processes. In this study we investigated the land use pattern changes in a micro-region (in North-Eastern Hungary) between 1952 and 2005, based on vectorised land use data from archive aerial photos. We also evaluated the methodology of comparisons using GIS methods, fuzzy sets and landscape metrics. We found that both GIS methods and statistical analysis of landscape metrics resulted in more or less the same findings. Differences were not as relevant as was expected considering the general tendencies of the past 60 years in Hungary. The change in the annual rate of forest recovery was 0.12%; settlements extended their area by an annual rate of 3.04%, while grasslands and arable lands had a net loss in their area within the studied period (0.60% and 0.89%, respectively). The kappa index showed a smaller similarity (~60%) between these dates but the fuzzy kappa and the aggregation index, taking into account both spatial and thematic errors, gave a more reliable result (~70–80% similarity). Landscape metrics on patch and class level ensured the possibility of a detailed analysis. We arrived at a similar outcome but were able to verify all the calculations through statistical tests. With this approach we were able to reveal significant (p < 0.05) changes; however, effect sizes did not show large magnitudes. Comparing the methods of revealing landscape change, the approach of landscape metrics was the most effective approach, as it was independent of spatial errors and ensuring a multiple way of interpretation.     

Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques

Tropical cyclones and their devastating impacts are of great concern to coastal communities globally. An appropriate approach integrating climate change scenarios at local scales is essential for producing detailed risk models to support cyclone mitigation measures. This study developed a simple cyclone risk-modelling approach under present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques at local scales, and tested using a case study in Sarankhola Upazila from coastal Bangladesh. Linear storm-surge models were developed up to 100-year return periods. A local sea level rise scenario of 0.34?m for the year 2050 was integrated with surge models to assess the climate change impact. The resultant storm-surge models were used in the risk-modelling procedures. The developed risk models successfully identified the spatial extent and levels of risk that match with actual extent and levels within an acceptable limit of deviation. The result showed that cyclone risk areas increased with the increase of return period. The study also revealed that climate change scenario intensified the cyclone risk area by 5–10% in every return period. The findings indicate this approach has the potential to model cyclone risk in other similar coastal environments for developing mitigation plans and strategies.     

Landsat-8 vs. Sentinel-2: examining the added value of sentinel-2’s red-edge bands to land-use and land-cover mapping in Burkina Faso

The availability of freely available moderate-to-high spatial resolution (10–30 m) satellite imagery received a major boost with the recent launch of the Sentinel-2 sensor by the European Space Agency. Together with Landsat, these sensors provide the scientific community with a wide range of spatial, spectral, and temporal properties. This study compared and explored the synergistic use of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data in mapping land use and land cover (LULC) in rural Burkina Faso. Specifically, contribution of the red-edge bands of Sentinel-2 in improving LULC mapping was examined. Three machine-learning algorithms – random forest, stochastic gradient boosting, and support vector machines – were employed to classify different data configurations. Classification of all Sentinel-2 bands as well as Sentinel-2 bands common to Landsat-8 produced an overall accuracy, that is 5% and 4% better than Landsat-8. The combination of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 red-edge bands resulted in a 4% accuracy improvement over that of Landsat-8. It was found that classification of the Sentinel-2 red-edge bands alone produced better and comparable results to Landsat-8 and the other Sentinel-2 bands, respectively. Results of this study demonstrate the added value of the Sentinel-2 red-edge bands and encourage multi-sensoral approaches to LULC mapping in West Africa.     

西昌市1989—2018年林地草地湿地动态变化特征分析

遥感技术已被广泛应用于生态环境调查与研究。为获取西昌市近30 a生态环境演化趋势,利用1989年、2000年、2010年的专题绘图仪(Thematic Mapper,TM)遥感影像和2018年的陆地成像仪(Operational Land Imager,OLI)遥感影像,通过图像处理、目视解译和野外验证等方法,获得了西昌市1989—2018年的土地利用/覆盖数据,并对林地、草地和湿地的动态变化特征进行了研究。结果表明: 1989—2018年,西昌市林地、湿地和草地面积持续增加,生态环境持续向好; 林地主要分布于安宁河谷和邛海盆地四周山地,在牦牛山、螺髻山一带形成主要林区; 草地主要呈星岛状分布于牦牛山、螺髻山一带林地之间; 湿地以河流湿地与湖泊湿地为主,主要沿安宁河及邛海分布。但仍存在一些问题: 森林存在针叶化现象较普遍、树种单一等问题,需要重点加强林区火灾防范; 草地多数呈零星片状分布,不具有完整的系统结构和良好的功能,多数草地承载力和生产力较低,不宜大规模开发利用,应通过封山育林促使其向森林转化; 湿地分布也比较局限,需要着力予以保护。研究成果可为西昌市生态保护修复措施的制定及经济社会可持续发展提供科学依据。     

海南岛天然橡胶林台风灾害风险评价

台风灾害是海南橡胶种植中影响最为严重和主要的灾害,为对其风险进行定量评估,本研究以海南岛天然橡胶林为研究对象,基于灾害风险评估理论,融合橡胶台风灾害、社会经济和气象数据,建立橡胶台风灾害危险性、暴露性和脆弱性评价模型,利用加权综合评价法开展天然橡胶林台风灾害风险评价。结果表明：海南橡胶种植高风险区位于沿海台风发生频繁市县,其中琼海、文昌、海口为海南岛橡胶灾害风险最高的地区,其次陵水、万宁、琼中、屯昌、东方等地区灾害风险也较高。风险最低地区位于中部五指山、保亭、乐东、三亚等地区,评价结果与实际灾害发生以及种植情况相符。评价结果表明,台风灾害危险性是风险的主导因子,但非单一决定因子,种植技术、品种改良等措施对脆弱性降低起到了较好的促进作用。评价结果可为橡胶林避灾防灾及种植布局提供依据。     

华南地区7-10月两类区域性极端降水事件特征及环流异常对比

利用1981—2016年7—10月中国753站逐日降水资料、气象信息综合分析处理系统（MICAPS）逐日站点降水资料、日本东京台风中心西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）最佳路径资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料集,分析了华南地区区域性日降水极端事件（RDPE事件）的统计特征及环流异常。根据华南地区RDPE事件的发生是否受热带气旋影响将其分为TCfree-RDPE和TCaff-RDPE两类事件,其中TCaff-RDPE事件占42%且集中发生在8月4—5候;TCfree-RDPE事件以7月发生频数最多,占其总频次的1/2以上。TCfree-RDPE事件发生时,华南地区受异常气旋性环流控制,来自西太平洋和中国南海的暖湿气流与北方冷气团在此汇合并形成一条狭长的水汽辐合带,低层辐合、高层辐散,显著强烈的上升运动为TCfree-RDPE事件的发生与维持提供了有利条件;与此同时,波扰动能量由高原东北侧及河西走廊地区向华南一带传播并在华南显著辐合,有利于华南上空扰动的发展和维持。TCaff-RDPE事件发生时,华南上空由低层到高层的斜压环流结构更为明显,异常上升运动更加强烈,热带气旋在其运动过程中携带了大量源自孟加拉湾、中国南海和西太平洋地区的水汽并输送至华南地区,水汽辐合气流更为强盛。同时,波扰动能量由高纬度地区沿河西走廊向下游传播,但在华南地区辐合不甚明显。两类极端事件发生时,加热场上的差异亦明显。华南及邻近地区上空的大气净加热及其南侧大范围区域的净冷却所形成的加热场梯度对TCfree-RDPE事件的发生有利。而TCaff-RDPE事件发生时,〈Q₁〉和〈Q₂〉在经向上由18°N以南、华南及其邻近地区、32°N以北呈负—正—负的异常分布型,正距平值更高,加热场梯度更大,有利于TCaff-RDPE事件的维持。这些结果有利于人们认识和预测华南区域性日降水极端事件的发生。      

基于WRF模式的风电场短期风速集成预报方法研究

风能始源于大气的运动,具有很大的随机性和间歇性。风速预测是风电场风功率预测的基础,其准确性具有重要的意义。对于复杂地形条件下,风速的预报一直是各国研究的难点和重点。为了提高风电场短期风速预报的准确性,本研究采用多种边界层参数化方案来集成预报风速,将各单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速及相应的实测风速数据,应用随机森林算法建立集成预报模型,对风电场的短期风速进行集成预报研究。试验结果表明,采用集成预报风速方法,预报的风速误差相比于单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速误差明显减小,对研究区域的风速、风向等气象要素有着较好的模拟效果,能够有效提高风速预报的准确率。     

基于时序遥感的庐山自然保护区植被分类及其变化分析

自然保护区是生物多样性最丰富的区域,针对近年来庐山自然保护区森林生物多样性进行调查,了解保护区内植被的分布及其变化,对于保护庐山境内的林业资源具有重要的意义.论文利用2015-2018年Proba-Ⅴ卫星100m分辨率5d植被指数产品,使用最大值合成法、Hants时间序列谐波分析方法对数据进行平滑降噪处理,并采用随机森...     

新疆森林公园的分布及旅游开发初探

新疆森林公园的分布以山地为主,平原为辅,主要集中在天山北坡和阿尔泰山;树种等资源在山地主要有雪岭云杉,新疆落叶松,新疆冷杉等针叶林,平原则主要以胡杨、灰杨等荒漠湖岸林为主,并分布着多种新疆特色的灌木,新疆森林公园起步较晚,但数量稳步增长,并已根据不同层次的需求,进行旅游开发建设,发展势头良好。通过对新疆森林公园的数量、级别、面积及建设时间等基本情况进行分析,进一步对新疆森林公园的现状及功效分析,得出进一步更好的发展森林公园的必要性。最后,提出抓住森林公园“天然养吧”等资源优势,结合龙头景区,因地制宜开发建设,并在开展旅游活动中突出地方特色,不断完善森林公园管理规范,实现资源永续利用的发展建议。     

随机森林算法在全球干旱评估中的应用

干旱是发生频率最高,造成社会、经济损失和生态破坏最严重、最广泛的自然灾害之一,因此对干旱进行可靠、有效的评估十分重要.本文以月平均降水、月平均温度、月最高温度、月最低温度、土壤湿度、蒸散发、NDVI、叶绿素荧光等作为解释变量,以基于SPI的干旱等级作为目标变量,采用随机森林算法,以2007-2012年的数据作为训练数据...