浙江沿海潜在区域地震海啸风险分析

采用COMCOT海啸模型建立三重网格模型模拟了2011年3月11日日本东北部9.0级地震引发的海啸发生、发展以及在我国东南沿海传播过程。震源附近浮标站以及浙江沿海的潮位站实测资料验证结果显示,大部分监测站首波到达时间和海啸波的计算值相差在15%以内,表明模型可较好的模拟海啸在计算域内的传播过程。研究表明日本南海海槽、冲绳海槽以及琉球海沟南部是影响浙江沿海主要的区域潜在震源,通过情景计算分别模拟3个潜在震源9.1级、8.0级和8.7级地震引发的海啸对浙江沿海的海啸风险,计算结果表明,海啸波产生后可在3~8h内传至浙江省沿岸,海啸波达1~3m,最大可达4m,此时浙江沿岸面临Ⅲ~Ⅳ级海啸风险,达到淹没至严重淹没等级。     

The potential influence of subduction zone polarity on overriding plate deformation, trench migration and slab dip angle

A geodynamic model exists, the westward lithospheric drift model, in which the variety of overriding plate deformation, trench migration and slab dip angles is explained by the polarity of subduction zones. The model predicts overriding plate extension, a fixed trench and a steep slab dip for westward-dipping subduction zones (e.g. Mariana) and predicts overriding plate shortening, oceanward trench retreat and a gentle slab dip for east to northeastward-dipping subduction zones (e.g. Chile). This paper investigates these predictions quantitatively with a global subduction zone analysis. The results show overriding plate extension for all dip directions (azimuth α = − 180° to 180°) and overriding plate shortening for dip directions with α = − 90° to 110°. The wide scatter in data negate any obvious trend and only local mean values in overriding plate deformation rate indicate that overriding plate extension is somewhat more prevalent for west-dipping slabs. West-dipping subduction zones are never fixed, irrespective of the choice of reference frame, while east to northeast-dipping subduction zones are both retreating and advancing in five out of seven global reference frames. In addition, westward-dipping subduction zones have a range in trench-migration velocities that is twice the magnitude of that for east to northeastward-dipping slabs. Finally, there is no recognizable correlation between slab dip direction and slab dip angle. East to northeast-dipping slabs (α = 30° to 120°) have shallow (0–125 km) slab dip angles in the range 10–60° and deep (125–670 km) slab dip angles in the range 40–82°, while west-dipping slabs (α = − 60° to − 120°) have shallow slab dip angles in the range 19–50° and deep slab dip angles in the range 25–86°. Local mean deep slab dip angles are nearly identical for east and west-dipping slabs, while local mean shallow slab dip angles are lower by only 4.7–8.1° for east to northeast-dipping slabs. It is thus concluded that overall, there is no observational basis to support the three predictions made by the westward drift model, and for some sub-predictions the observational basis is very weak at most. Alternative models, which incorporate and underline the importance of slab buoyancy-driven trench migration, slab width and overriding plate motion, are better candidates to explain the complexity of subduction zones, including the variety in trench-migration velocities, overriding plate deformation and slab dip angles.     

Physical conditions producing slab stagnation: Constraints of the Clapeyron slope, mantle viscosity, trench retreat, and dip angles

Recent seismic tomography has revealed various morphologies in the subducted lithosphere. In particular, significant flattening and stagnation of slabs around the 660-km boundary are seen in some areas beneath the northwestern Pacific subduction zones. We examined the cause of slab stagnation in terms of the Clapeyron slope of the phase transformation from ringwoodite to perovskite + magnesiowüstite, trench retreat velocity, dip angles, and high viscosity of the lower mantle based on two-dimensional (2-D) numerical simulations of thermal convection. In particular, we examined the conditions necessary for slab stagnation assuming a very small absolute value of the Clapeyron slope, which were proposed based on recent high-pressure, high-temperature (high P–T) experiments. Our calculations show that slabs tend to stagnate above the 660-km boundary with an increasing absolute value of the Clapeyron slope, viscosity jump at the boundary, and trench retreat velocity and a decreasing initial dip angle. Stagnant slabs could be obtained numerically for a realistic range of parameters obtained from high P–T experiments and other geophysical observations combining buoyancy, high lower-mantle viscosity, and trench retreat. We found that a low dip angle of a descending slab at the bottom of the upper mantle plays an important role in slab stagnation. Two main regimes underlie slab stagnation: buoyancy-dominated and viscosity-dominated regimes. In the viscosity-dominated regime, it is possible for slabs to stagnate above the 660-km boundary, even when the value of the Clapeyron slope is 0 MPa/K.     

Bait-attending fauna of the Kermadec Trench, SW Pacific Ocean: Evidence for an ecotone across the abyssal-hadal transition zone

The bait-attending fauna of the abyssal-hadal transition zone of the Kermadec Trench, SW Pacific Ocean (4329-7966 m), was investigated using a baited camera and a trap lander. The abyssal stations (4329-6007 m) revealed a typical scavenging fish community comprising macrourids and synaphobranchid eels, as well as natantian decapods. At the hadal depths of 7199 and 7561 m, the endemic liparid Notoliparis kermadecensis was observed aggregating at the bait reaching surprisingly high numbers of 5 and 13, respectively. A total of 3183 invertebrate samples were collected (mean deployment time=16 h) of which 97.8% were of the order Amphipoda (nine families, 16 species). Ten of the amphipod species represent new distributional records for the Kermadec Trench and the New Zealand Exclusive Economic Zone; this includes the shallowest known record of the endemic hadal amphipod Hirondellea dubia (6000, 6007 m). Using amphipods to statistically examine the compositional change across the abyssal-hadal boundary, an ecotone between depths <6007 and >6890 m was found, indicating that there is an ecologically distinct bait-attending fauna in this trench.     

Measurements of upper mantle shear wave anisotropy from a permanent network in southern Mexico

Upper mantle shear wave anisotropy under stations in southern Mexico was measured using records of SKS phases. Fast polarization directions where the Cocos plate subducts subhorizontally are oriented in the direction of the relative motion between the Cocos and North American plates, and are trench-perpendicular. This pattern is interpreted as subslab entrained flow, and is similar to that observed at the Cascadia subduction zone. Earlier studies have pointed out that both regions have in common the young age of the subducting lithosphere. Changes in the orientation of the fast axes are observed where the subducting plates change dip and/or are torn, and are thus indicative of 3-D flow around the slab edges. They are consistent with slab rollback, as previously shown by other authors. Some stations located away from the plate boundaries have their fast directions controlled by the absolute motion of the North American plate. The fast axis for station ZAIG, located in the Mesa Central, is oriented WNW-ESE and is different from all the other measurements in this study.     

A paleo-seismological study of the Dauki fault at Jaflong,Sylhet, Bangladesh: Historical seismic events and an attempted rupture segmentation model

A paleo-seismological study was conducted at Jaflong, Sylhet, Bangladesh, which is on the eastern part of the Dauki fault. The geomorphology around Jaflong is divided into the Shillong Plateau, the foothills, the lower terraces, and the alluvial plain from north to south. Because the foothills and lower terraces are considered to be uplifted tectonically, an active fault is inferred to the south of the lower terraces. This fault, which branches from the Dauki fault as a foreland migration, is known as the Jaflong fault in this paper. The trench investigation was conducted at the southern edge of the lower terrace. The angular unconformity accompanied by folding, which is thought to be the top of the growth strata, was identified in the trench. An asymmetric anticline with a steep southern limb and gentle northern limb is inferred from the back-tilted lower terrace and the folding of the gravel layer parallel to the lower terrace surface. The timing of the seismic event which formed the folding and unconformity is dated to between AD 840 and 920.The trench investigation at Gabrakhari, on the western part of the Dauki fault, revealed that the Dauki fault ruptured in AD 1548 (Morino et al., 2011). Because the 1897 great Indian earthquake (M ⩾ 8.0; Yeats et al., 1997) was caused by the rupture of the Dauki fault (Oldham, 1899), it is clear that the Dauki fault has ruptured three times in the past one thousand years. The timing of these seismic events coincides with that of the paleo-liquefactions confirmed on the Shillong Plateau. It is essential for the paleo-seismological study of the Dauki fault to determine the surface ruptures of the 1897 earthquake. The Dauki fault might be divided into four rupture segments, the western, central, eastern, and easternmost segments. The eastern and western segments ruptured in AD 840–920 and in 1548, respectively. The 1897 earthquake might have been caused by the rupture of the central segment.     

History of Paleoseismic Activity Along the Hohhot Segment of Daqingshan Piedmont Fault in the Late Quaternary

INTRODUCTIONTheDaqingshanpledmont扭nit Is an irllt,oltant active normal tsult In the active fault－depressionzone——Hetao ault－depression zone In the northern part of Ordos Block,North China．It lies in ENEdirection long the southern pledmont of Daqingshan Mountain,dips to south,and extends for 200 kmor。。The fault was formed In the Eocene and strongly activated In the Cenozolc．Its verticaldlspl。ement exceeds 2400 m since the Quaternary(Rese。h Group on Ordos Block,State…     

海山的倾斜俯冲对上覆板块变形的影响

伴随洋壳的俯冲,驼伏其上的海山会导致上覆板块的强烈变形.为解释该构造变形特征,本文运用物理模拟实验的方法,着重分析海山的斜向俯冲对上覆板块变形的影响,并将模拟结果与正向俯冲过程进行对比.实验结果显示:海山开始进入俯冲,前缘楔体的增生会被阻止,同时楔体被抬升并出现脱顶构造,未被海山破坏的楔体会出现后冲断层的激活,后冲断层轴平行于海山的俯冲方向.海山进一步俯冲,突起项部发育一系列张扭性质的微断裂和走滑性质的共轭断裂,尾随突起之后的楔体由于重力会产生正断层系统.比起正向俯冲,斜向俯冲过程中所产生的后逆冲体、海山两侧的叠瓦状逆冲推覆构造都出现不对称分布,断裂和微断裂束的走向不规则散开,后冲断层的轴向及海山俯冲过后在楔体上产生的凹槽的轨迹都不断斜向迁移,且凹槽两侧的地势不一致等.最后利用文中的物理模拟结果,很好的解释了马尼拉海沟中段俯冲构造的构造特征,同时对其他俯冲大陆边缘的构造解释具有指导意义.     

Late Holocene tsunami traces on the western and southern coastlines of the Peloponnesus (Greece)

Greece, in particular the western and southern parts close to the subduction zone of the Hellenic Trench, experiences strong earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis. Nevertheless, field evidence of tsunamis from the late Holocene is extremely rare. Our research along the coastlines of the western and southern Peloponnesus resulted in new findings of tsunami impacts in the form of clusters and ridges of large boulders and thick tsunamigenic sand layers encountered in vibracores. Many boulders contained attached marine organisms, which prove that they were transported from the foreshore environment against gravity by extreme wave events. The attached organisms, which have been dated by ¹⁴C-AMS, suggest that historical tsunami events of great energy occurred around 1300 cal AD. A wood fragment found at the base of tsunami deposits in a vibracore from Cape Punta was dated to ~ 250 cal AD.