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31.
大气折射延迟是空间大地测量中的一个主要误差源。本文严格地给出了中性大气路径弯曲改正的原理性公式。通过对各种因素量级的分析,在亚毫米量级的精度上给出了一个以视天顶距正切和正割乘积为参数的级数展开模型。新模型在球对称大气模型下,级数展开模型的精度达到了毫米量级,理论上可以展开到任意阶次,且可允许观测高度角小到5°。 相似文献
32.
河川径流等水文时间序列属于复杂的非线性系统,使用回归分析等传统的分析方法,难以获取和描述其内在关联和变化规律。利用现有的相关站点的径流量历史数据和输沙量、降水量数据,在进行规格化处理和主成分分析的基础上,利用三层BP人工神经网络模型,对澜沧江流域上游昌都站径流量与各关联因子之间复杂的非线性映射关系进行模拟,采用拟牛顿算法对模型进行训练,模拟结果达到期望精度要求,并利用1982年~1985年实测数据进行模型验证。结果证明利用BP神经网络模型对澜沧江流域站点的月径流量序列进行模拟、预测和数据补缺处理具有可行性。 相似文献
33.
34.
This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ 3). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ 3 time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ 3 data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ 3 predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ 3 time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ 3 reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR. 相似文献
35.
针对大样本集的训练问题和动态训练样本的模型更新问题,提出了动态最小二乘支持向量机学习算法.该算法充分利用已建好的模型,逐渐加入新样本,并可删除位于任何位置的非支持向量,避免了矩阵求逆运算,保证了算法的高效率.大坝变形及电离层延迟两个时间序列的预报实例表明,该算法具有计算时间短、预报精度高的特点. 相似文献
36.
Sandro Da Silva Fernandes 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1994,58(3):297-308
The classic Lagrange's expansion of the solutionE(e, M) of Kepler's equation in powers of eccentricity is extended to highly eccentric orbits, 0.6627 ... <e<1. The solutionE(e, M) is developed in powers of (e–e*), wheree* is a fixed value of the eccentricity. The coefficients of the expansion are given in terms of the derivatives of the Bessel functionsJ
n
(ne). The expansion is convergent for values of the eccentricity such that |e–e*|<(e*), where the radius of convergence (e*) is a positive real number, which is calculated numerically. 相似文献
37.
Long-term prediction of intermediate depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean region based on a time-predictable model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
B. C. Papazachos 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(3):211-218
Repeat times of strong intermediate depth (60 km h 180 km) earthquakes have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for six seismogenic sources in the Benioff zone of the southern Aegean area. For four of these sources, at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these four sources, the following relation has been determined: logT
t = 0.20M
min + 0.19M
p +a, whereT
t is the repeat time (in years),M
min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered,M
p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock and a parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.91 was determined for this relation, which indicates that the time predictable model holds to a satisfactory degree for the strong mainshocks of intermediate focal depth in the southern Aegean.By assuming that the ratioT/T
t, whereT is the observed andT
t the calculated repeat time, follows a lognormal distribution, the conditional probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M
s 6.5) and very strong (M
s 7.5) earthquakes during the period 1991–2001 in these four seismogenic sources have been calculated. These probabilities are very high (P > 0.9) for the strong and high (P > 0.5) for the very strong intermediate depth earthquakes which occur in the three sources of the shallower (h < 100 km) part of the Benioff zone where coupling occurs between the front parts of the Mediterranean lithosphere (downgoing) and the Aegean lithosphere. 相似文献
38.
Krzysztof Gozdziewski Andrzej J. Maciejewski 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1990,49(1):1-10
A software system for normalization of a Hamiltonian function is described. A few examples of its applications are given. It is written in PASCAL and runs on an IBM XT/AT with 640 KB memory. 相似文献
39.
The stochastic nature of the cyclic swelling behavior of mudrock and its dependence on a large number of interdependent parameters was modeled using Time Delay Neural Networks (TDNNs). This method has facilitated predicting cyclic swelling pressure with an acceptable level of accuracy where developing a general mathematical model is almost impossible. A number of total pressure cells between shotcrete and concrete walls of the powerhouse cavern at Masjed–Soleiman Hydroelectric Powerhouse Project, South of Iran, where mudrock outcrops, confirmed a cyclic swelling pressure on the lining since 1999. In several locations, small cracks are generated which has raised doubts about long term stability of the powerhouse structure. This necessitated a study for predicting future swelling pressure. Considering the complexity of the interdependent parameters in this problem, TDNNs proved to be a powerful tool. The results of this modeling are presented in this paper. 相似文献
40.
Ahmad Shlash Alawneh Osama K. Nusier Ahmed Abdul-Ezel Al-Mufty 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(3):637-660
A reliability based method was used to design and analyse shallow foundations using first-order Taylor series approximation.
The computer program Mathcad was used to facilitate all mathematical and computional efforts. This method is an effective
tool to assist the foundation designers and analyists to investigate how reliable their designs or analyses are in relation
to the ultimate bearing capacity of the foundations. The approach presented in this paper provides a reliable alternative
for design and analysis of shallow foundations, rather than the conventional design methods, which employs the assumptions
of a specified saftey factor. Several examples were presented for design and analysis of strip footings embedded in sandy
soil, and rectangular and square footings analysis embedded in clayey soils. The program input and output of each example
are also presented and discussed. 相似文献