多参量动态综合预测模型

现有的综合预测模型，大多未考虑系统的时变性和各种异常在震前所显示的不同持续时间。本文本文对地震过程的不可逆性与孕育过程中的时变性，由可容纳不同异常持续时间的名参量动态预测综合模型，依据适合于不可逆过程的ＡＲＭＡ和ＶＡＲ参量预测模型，以华北北部区域为例，探讨了进行未来强震危险性预测的途径。     

PLC结合微机控制在时间常数测量装置中的应用

文章介绍了在时间常数测量装置中所涉及到的几个控制问题 ,系统采用由计算机为上位机和以可编程序控制器 (PL C)为下位机构成的两级控制模式。在上位微机中使用 VB5 .0编程语言设计了微机软仪表面板风格的监控程序 ,通过 RS2 32通讯接口将上位微机操作指令送至 PL C完成控制过程。本文还介绍了传感器运动速度的控制和测量 ,传感器穿越阶越界面的运动控制以及高速数据采集系统。     

珠江河口悬浮泥沙遥感数据集

选择 1 995— 2 0 0 0年间NOAA系列卫星AVHRR遥感器获取的珠江口及其邻近海域可见光和近红外遥感数据 ,利用基于海面 遥感器光谱反射率斜率传递现象的悬浮泥沙遥感算法 ,建立珠江口及其邻近海域 1 5 2个时相的悬浮泥沙数据集 ,进行悬浮泥沙浓度分布和变动规律的特征累积频率悬浮泥沙浓度、均值与均方差统计。结果表明 ,珠江口河口浅滩是悬浮泥沙浓度的高值区。随着径流、潮流的相互关系的变动 ,珠江口的悬浮泥沙浓度具有明显的季节变化 ,内伶仃洋悬浮泥沙浓度季节变动幅度最大 ,而磨刀门外浑浊水体的延伸方向变动幅度最大。     

经济计量模型气象应用探讨：气象学与计量经济学

本文用经济计量模型,对１９５４－１９８４年台风在中国福建省造成的灾害损失,建立了一个估测模式,又从台风个例中采集时序资料,利用关联模型作台风路径,强度和风速的２４ｈ,４８ｈ和７２ｈ预测,在前一工作的基础上,对模型的计算方案作了改进,考虑了内生变量协方关阵的影响。正式提出“多维动态关联模型”的新概念,继而作了以下三方面的工作：１,三种时效的拟合和预报及它们的统计分析,２,模拟观测误差产生均匀分布的随     

Gamma-ray bursts: the time domain

Temporal aspects of the gamma-ray burst phenomenon are reviewed in a hierarchical schema. The macrocosm - burst profiles taken as a whole - is fairly well characterized. The bimodal duration distribution can be framed in terms of discretization of pulse structures. The average burst envelope is slightly asymmetric, an aspect possibly related to spectral softening. Burst durations are longer for dim BATSE bursts, an effect explainable by either cosmic time dilation or a luminosity function governed by special relativistic beaming, or a combination. GeV emission, persisting up to thousands of seconds after burst cessation at keV-MeV energies is one of the most challenging features of bursts. On the timescale of pulses structures (the mesocosm), some properties mirror the macrocosm: rise/decay asymmetry; wider pulses and longer intervals between pulses in dim bursts than in bright ones; and the tendency of pulses to soften with time. A central clue to the burst mechanism may be the organization in time and energy, manifest as pulses, for both long and short bursts. Burst profiles appear to be well represented by pulses, accounting for the vast majority of emission in the BATSE energy band. In the microcosm, existence of a higher frequency component - with properties possibly unlike those of pulses - has not been well addressed.     

2003年岷县5.5级地震地震学前兆特征及预报意义

研究了2003年甘肃岷县5.5级地震的地震学前兆的变化特征,显示尾波Qc值和地震空间相关长度在震前都呈增长趋势,用幂次率关系对这种变化进行了拟合。结果为利用尾波Q值和地震空间相关长度的监测资料建立预测地震发生时间的方法和指标打下了基础。     

Nonlinear transformation of unit hydrograph

Unit hydrograph (UH) and its numerous derivatives have been popular for estimation of flood hydrographs. Two major assumptions still overshadow UH applications. One is the linearity and the other is time invariance. In theory, only peak discharge of an equilibrium hydrograph follows linear proportionality to excess rainfall intensity. In trying to relax the linearity constraint, this paper aims to propose a nonlinear way of transforming a given UH to other general hydrographs. The transformation or mapping technique relies on a simple rainfall ratio raised to a power less than unity. The case of nonlinear transformation is illustrated for a number of watershed geometries with either known kinematic wave analytic solutions or observed data. The nonlinear UH approach also relaxes the assumption of constant time base of the UH. The proposed nonlinear UH transformation may thus be viewed as a major step in closing the gap between physically based and traditional UH-based surface runoff simulation approaches.     

地震台阵上信号方位角和慢度的时、频域估计方法比较

地震台阵常用频率-波数分析法来估计地震信号的后方位角和慢度。尽管有关的算法是众所周知的,但不同的实现在某些情况下可能导致不同的结果。如应用在宽频带的澳大利亚WRA台阵的记录时,标准的f-k分析方法往往给出不正确的结果。本文发现错误是由FFT的频谱泄漏效应引起的,如在进行FFT之前对原始数据进行高通滤波则可以有效地避免这样的错误。进一步对在时域中直接估算信号方位角和慢度的一种算法进行了分析,比较发现时域方法的计算速度和精度都不低于频域方法,且在某些低信噪比的情况下,前者可以给出更可靠的结果。     

Impulse response of the kinematic diffusion model as a probability distribution of hydrologic samples with zero values

It is hypothesized that the unit impulse response of a linearized kinematic diffusion (KD) model is a probability distribution suitable for frequency analysis of hydrologic samples with zero values. Such samples may include data on monthly precipitation in dry seasons, annual low flow, and annual maximum peak discharge observed in arid and semiarid regions. The hypothesized probability distribution has two parameters, which are estimated using the methods of moments (MOM) and maximum likelihood (MLM). Also estimated are errors in quantiles for MOM and MLM. The distribution shows an equivalency of MOM and MLM with respect to the mean value—an important property for ML-estimation in the case of the unknown true distribution function. The hypothesized KD distribution is tested on 44 discharge data series and compared with the Muskingum-like (M-like) probability distribution function. A comparison of empirical distribution with KD and M-like distributions shows that MOM better reproduces the upper tail of the distribution, while MLM is more robust for higher sample values and more conditioned on the value of the probability of the zero value event. The KD-model is suitable for frequency analysis of short samples with zero values and it is more universal than the M-like model as its modal value cannot be only equaled to zero value but also to any positive value.