四川省康定市泥石流灾害与降水预报阈值确定

通过对康定市历史泥石流灾害资料与历史气象降雨资料进行统计分析,揭示了康定市泥石流灾害与降雨的关系特征,并在此基础上,研制了康定市1h、3h降雨量诱发泥石流预警指标。结果表明：康定市境内各地均有发生泥石流灾害的可能性,东部地区是泥石流的高易发区。康定市境内泥石流灾害发生与当日降雨量、短时强降雨、前期有效降雨量关系密切。降雨量大且降雨强度强的月份（6~8月）易发生泥石流灾害。短时强降水的强度越大,发生灾害的风险越大,强降水出现频率最高的时段（19:00~02:00）也是泥石流高发时段。当降水强度<10mm/h和20mm/3h时,有出现泥石流的可能性,泥石流灾害气象风险等级为4~5级;当降水强度达到10~20mm/h、21~35mm/3h时,发生泥石流的可能性较大,风险等级为3级;当降水强度达到21~35mm/h、36~50mm/3h时,泥石流发生的可能性大,风险等级为2级;当降水强度>35mm/h、50mm/3h时,泥石流发生的可能性极大,风险等级为1级。     

Behaviour of particle-laden flows into the ocean: experimental simulation and geological implications

The behaviour of subaerial particle-laden gravity currents (e.g. pyroclastic flows, lahars, debris flows, sediment-bearing floods and jökulhlaups) flowing into the sea has been simulated with analogue experiments. Flows of either saline solution, simple suspensions of silicon carbide (SiC) in water or complex suspensions of SiC and plastic particles in methanol were released down a slope into a tank of water. The excess momentum between subaerial and subaqueous flow is dissipated by a surface wave. At relatively low density contrasts between the tank water and the saline or simple suspensions, the flow mixture enters the water and forms a turbulent cloud involving extensive entrainment of water. The cloud then collapses gravitationally to form an underwater gravity current, which progresses along the tank floor. At higher density contrasts, the subaerial flow develops directly into a subaqueous flow. The flow slows and thickens in response to the reduced density contrast, which is driving motion, and then continues in the typical gravity current manner. Complex suspensions become dense flows along the tank floor or buoyant flows along the water surface, if the mixtures are sufficiently denser or lighter than water respectively. Flows of initially intermediate density are strongly influenced by the internal stratification of the subaerial flow. Material from the particulate-depleted upper sections of the subaerial flow becomes a buoyant gravity current along the water surface, whereas material from the particulate-enriched lower sections forms a dense flow along the tank floor. Sedimentation from the dense flow results in a reduction in bulk density until the mixture attains buoyancy, lifts off and becomes a secondary buoyant flow along the water surface. Jökulhlaups, lahars and debris flows are typically much denser than seawater and, thus, will usually form dense flows along the seabed. After sufficient sedimentation, the freshwater particulate mixture can lift off to form a buoyant flow at the sea surface, leading to a decoupling of the fine and coarse particles. Flood waters with low particulate concentrations (<2%) may form buoyant flows immediately upon entering the ocean. Subaerial pyroclastic flows develop a pronounced internal stratification during subaerial run-out and, thus, a flow-splitting behaviour is probable, which agrees with evidence for sea surface and underwater flows from historic eruptions of Krakatau and Mont Pelée. A pyroclastic flow with a bulk density closer to that of sea water may form a turbulent cloud, resulting in the deposition of much of the pyroclasts close to the shore. Dense subaqueous pyroclastic flows will eventually lift off and form secondary buoyant flows, either before or after the transformation to a water-supported nature.     

The influence of tectonic subsidence on volcaniclastic sedimentation: The Cretaceous upper Daeri Member,Wido Island,Korea

The Daeri Member, a Cretaceous volcanic–sedimentary succession, can be divided into lower, middle, and upper parts based on vertical changes in its lithologic characters. The lower Daeri Member is composed of siliciclastic deposits formed in a semi‐arid floodplain environment, which is overlain by the middle Daeri Member consisting mainly of andesite lava flow. After the emplacement of the andesite, activities of intrabasinal normal faults created accommodation on hanging wall blocks together with the development of intrabasinal topographic relief. The upper Daeri Member occurs only in hanging wall blocks and is composed of rhyolitic volcaniclastic sediments formed during an explosive volcanic eruption. Following the eruption, owing to semi‐arid climatic conditions and the destruction of vegetation, the eruptive materials were easily remobilized and deposited by episodic sediment gravity flows, resulting in deposition of the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits with sheet‐like geometry. Away from the intrabasinal normal faults, the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits show a decrease in grain size together with changes in inferred depositional processes from debris flows to hyperconcentrated flows and supercritical sheetfloods. This suggests that the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits were stacked on alluvial fan environments induced by intrabasinal topographic relief associated with normal fault activities. In addition, episodic movement of the faults gave rise to periodic fluctuation of the accommodation and an increase in gradient of the alluvial fan surface, resulting in the development of coarsening‐upward trends in the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits. The development of the alluvial fan and the coarsening‐upward trends indicate that dynamic tectonic subsidence and concomitant changes in the intrabasinal physiographic relief influenced the depositional processes and sizes of the transported volcaniclastic sediments of the upper Daeri Member. Thus, it is necessary to carefully observe tectonic signatures in volcaniclastic successions, particularly the syneruptive lithofacies, in order to reconstruct the tectonic and volcanic histories of receiving basins.     

Radiocarbon redating of contaminated samples from a tropical volcano: the Mansion ‘Series’ of St Kitts,West Indies

Heavy rainfall and dense vegetation on tropical volcanoes produce abundant carbonized wood in pyroclastic deposits, in addition to easy contamination of this wood by root systems and soluble humic material. Because the physical nature of the charcoal varies, some samples are more prone to contamination. Two independent studies of the same volcano, Mt Liamuiga on St Kitts in the Lesser Antilles, sometimes using samples from the same carbonized tree, yielded a systematic difference in radiocarbon ages. An exchange of samples and a re-investigation of three physically distinct types of charcoal yielded the following results. Rare, hard, dense charcoal, lacking contamination, which had yielded a spurious age of 2860 years bp, was redated at 1845±58 years bp. Common soft, friable charcoal with good cellular structure proved to be susceptible to contamination. A field decontamination technique utilized by one group seems significant as it yields older ages than when only routine laboratory pre-treatment was used, indicating that the latter technique only partly removes the dried and hard residue produced by the decomposition of modern plant rootlets. A previous date of 24870 years bp obtained from powdery charcoal in a horizon beneath the Mansion Series contradicted ages older than 41000 years bp from common friable charcoal in the lower Mansion Series. The soft powdery charcoal was re-investigated using a sample collected a few centimeters from the original, although field decontamination of this sample was not possible, more extensive laboratory treatment yielded an age of ca. 43000 years bp, again proving that routine laboratory pretreatments are inadequate. A revised geochronology for the Mansion Series is described and a cautionary discussion is presented for the benefit of investigators using radiocarbon ages to date volcanic deposits.     

Formation of the mid-fifteenth century Kuwae caldera (Vanuatu) by an initial hydroclastic and subsequent ignimbritic eruption

In the mid-fifteenth century, one of the largest eruptions of the last 10 000 years occurred in the Central New Hebrides arc, forming the Kuwae caldera (12x6 km). This eruption followed a late maar phase in the pre-caldera edifice, responsible for a series of alternating hydromagmatic deposits and airfall lapilli layers. Tuffs related to caldera formation ( 120 m of deposits on a composite section from the caldera wall) were emitted during two main ignimbritic phases associated with two additional hydromagmatic episodes. The lower hydromagmatic tuffs from the precaldera maar phase are mainly basaltic andesite in composition, but clasts show compositions ranging from 48 to 60% SiO₂. The unwelded and welded ashflow deposits from the ignimbritic phases and the associated intermediate and upper hydromagmatic deposits also show a wide compositional range (60–73% SiO₂), but are dominantly dacitic. This broad compositional range is thought to be due to crystal fractionation. The striking evolution from one eruptive style (hydromagmatic) to the other (magmatic with emission of a large volume of ignimbrites) which occurred either over the tuff series as a whole, or at the beginning of each ignimbritic phase, is the most impressive characteristic of the caldera-forming event. This strongly suggests triggering of the main eruptive phases by magma-water interaction. A three-step model of caldera formation is presented: (1) moderate hydromagmatic (sequences HD 1–4) and magmatic (fallout deposits) activity from a central vent, probably over a period of months or years, affected an area slightly wider than the present caldera. At the end of this stage, intense seismic activity and extrusion of differentiated magma outside the caldera area occurred; (2) unhomogenized dacite was released during a hydromagmatic episode (HD 5). This was immediately followed by two major pyroclastic flows (PFD 1 and 2). The vents spread and intense magma-water interaction at the beginning of this stage decreased rapidly as magma discharge increased. Subsequent collapse of the caldera probably commenced in the southeastern sector of the caldera; (3) dacitic welded tuffs were emplaced during a second main phase (WFD 1–5). At the beginning of this phase, magma-water interaction continued, producing typical hydromagmatic deposits (HD 6). Caldera collapse extended to the northern part of the caldera. Previous C¹⁴ dates and records of explosive volcanism in ice from the south Pole show that the climactic phase of this event occurred in 1452 A.D.     

Jordan日照记录阈值分析

本文是通过10个月的日射、日照资料对比观测、统计的乔唐、康氏和光电式日照计记录阈值的平均值和标准偏差,分析了乔唐日照计进光孔径、涂药方式对感光迹线的影响,测定了感光药的吸收光谱,并根据日出日没时直接日射辐照度的平均变化率,估算了由阈值的不确定度引起的日照时数的误差,从而为我国几十年的乔唐日照资料的评价提供依据。     

Natural background levels and threshold values of monitored parameters in the Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body,Estonia

The Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body plays an important role in drinking water supply of capital Tallinn and other settlements in northern Estonia. Water quality in this deep-seated confined groundwater body is influenced by the intrusion of present-day seawater and pumping-induced upward migration of deeper saline groundwater. The aim of this study is to evaluate the threshold values applying the methodology worked out within the EU 6th FP project “Background criteria for the identification of groundwater thresholds (BRIDGE)” and to compare the results with the values proposed by local authorities. A database containing 250 monitoring points was completed and used for the calculation of natural background levels (as the 90 and 97.7 percentile) in groundwater. The calculation of threshold values is based on natural background levels and reference values. In case of Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body the receptor is drinking water, thus limit values set by Estonian drinking water standard were used as reference values. The threshold values proposed by local authorities are more or less the same as calculated by BRIDGE methodology. Exceptionally different values are derived in case of chloride and ammonium.     

The use of modern statistical theories in the assessment of earthquake hazard, with application to quiet regions of eastern North America

It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity.     

投影寻踪门限回归模型在年径流预测中的应用

为预测年径流这类同维复杂动力系统，提出了投影寻踪门限回归（PPTR）模型。构造了新的投影指标函数，用门限回归（TR）模型描述投影值与预测对象间的非线性关系，并用实码加速遗传算法优化投影指标指数函数和TR模型参数。实例的计算结果表明，用PPTR模型预测年径流是可行而有效的。PPRT模型简便、适用性强，克服了目前投影寻踪方法计算量大、编程实现困难的缺点，有利投影寻踪方法的推广应用，为解决高维非线性复杂预测问题提供了新途径。