长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用

介绍了双层多因子综合相似的长江中下游旱涝中期预报模型。该模型引入了具有明确动力学和热力学意义的地转西风动量经向输送和经向温度梯度诊断量，同时强调了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水的关键作用，并考虑了对流层中、低层500hPa高度和850hPa温度的大尺度环流背景场。与过去业务应用的单层相似预报模型相比较，不仅物理意义和天气学含义明确，而且更符合对具有复杂动力和热力机制的降水预报的考虑。5年的预报试验和业务应用结果表明，该方法对长江中下游地区旱涝的中期趋势预报有较好的预报能力。     

煤层气在煤储层中的扩散及其影响因素

煤层气在煤储层中的扩散是指从煤基质孔隙表面上解吸的煤层气运移到割理系统的主要过程。发生扩散的前提条件是气体浓度差的出现，衡量扩散能力大小的重要参数是扩散系数。前者为由解吸速度、解吸气量和煤层气产量、井孔压力降等因素控制的动态参数，而后者为主要受扩散物质性质、扩散介质特征、扩散系统的温度、压力和孔隙结构形态等因素影响的静态参数。煤层气在煤储层中的扩散量与煤层气浓度差和扩散系数呈正比关系。     

非饱和土中镉离子传输模型参数反演

使用自行设计的的真空实验装置,采用一维实验室土柱实验方法在不同实验条件下进行了15组实验,并基于实验所得的穿透曲线,使用梯度正则化方法反演得到了镉离子在8种葡萄牙土样和1种比利时土样中相应的传输模型参数。同时通过数值模拟实验验证了梯度正则化方法的有效性和可靠性,进而证明所得结果是有效的。     

Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy)

A combination of empirical and physically based hydrological models has been used to analyze historical data on rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in western Campania, to examine the correlation between rainfall and debris-flow events.

Rainfall data from major storms recorded in recent decades in western Campania were compiled, including daily series from several rain gauges located inside landslide areas, supplemented by hourly rainfall data from some of the principal storms.

A two-phase approach is proposed. During phase 1, soil moisture levels have been modelled as the hydrological balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration, on a daily scale, using the method of Thornthwaite [Geograph. Rev. 38 (1948) 55].

Phase 2 is related to the accumulation of surplus moisture from intense rainfall, leading to the development of positive pore pressures. These interactions take place on an hourly time scale by the “leaky barrel” (LB) model described by Wilson and Wiezoreck [Env. Eng. Geoscience, 1 (1995) 11]. In combination with hourly rainfall records, the LB model has been used to compare hydrological effects of different storms. The critical level of retained rain water has been fixed by the timing of debris-flow activity, related to recorded storm events.

New rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation in western Campania are proposed. These thresholds are related to individual rain gauge and assume a previously satisfied field capacity condition. The new thresholds are somewhat higher than those plotted by previous authors, but are thought to be more accurate and thus need less conservatism.     

地球重力场、重力、重力梯度在三维直角坐标系中的表达式

现代卫星重力测量主要利用星载GPS接收机、加速度计、星载测距仪等来确定重力卫星的轨道 ,削弱非保守力的干扰 ,由此根据卫星的位置、速度及其变率来确定地球重力场。而上述GPS等星载仪器所提供的数据 ,包括卫星轨道坐标及其速率、扰动加速度、星间距离及其变率 ,都是以三维直角坐标 (x ,y ,z)的形式表示的 ,因此 ,地球重力场、重力和重力梯度在三维直角坐标系中的表达式在卫星重力解算中具有实际意义     

Splash-saltation trajectories of soil particles under wind-driven rain

It is usually recognized that relatively large amounts of soil particles cannot be transported by raindrop splashes under windless rain. However, the splash-saltation process can cause net transportation in the prevailing wind direction since variations in splash-saltation trajectory due to the wind are expected in wind-driven rain. Therefore, determining the combined effect of rain and wind on the process should enable improvement of the estimation of erosion for any given prediction technique. This paper presents experimental data on the effects of slope aspect, slope gradient, and horizontal wind velocity on the splash-saltation trajectories of soil particles under wind-driven rain. In a wind tunnel facility equipped with a rainfall simulator, the rains driven by horizontal wind velocities of 6, 10, and 14 m s⁻¹ were allowed to impact three agricultural soils packed into 20×55 cm soil pans placed at both windward and leeward slopes of 7%, 15%, and 20%. Splash-saltation trajectories were measured by trapping the splashed particles at distances downwind on a 7-m uniform slope segment in the upslope and downslope directions, respectively, for windward and leeward slopes. Exponential decay curves were fitted for the mass distribution of splash-saltation sediment as a function of travel distance, and the average splash-saltation trajectory was derived from the average value of the fitted functions. The results demonstrated that the average trajectory of a raindrop-induced and wind-driven soil particle was substantially affected by the wind shear velocity, and it had the greatest correlation (r=0.96 for all data) with the shear velocity; however, neither slope aspect nor slope gradient significantly predicted the splash-saltation trajectory. More significantly, a statistical analysis conducted with nonlinear regression model of C₁(u_*²/g) showed that average trajectory of splash saltation was approximately three times greater than that of typical saltating sand grain.     

Discussion on Characteristics of Crustal Deformation along the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea Seismotectonic Zone

INTRODUCTIONThe Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone has drawnextensive attentionfromseismologists and geologistssince it was determinedinthe1980’s(Zheng Binghua,et al.,1981).Ma Xingyuan,et al.(1989)consideredit asthe north boundaryof North China sub-block.Int…     

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE CONTRIBUTION OF BOTH GEOTHERMAL AND GRAVITY IN THE LITHOSPHERE

1 Introduction The pressure, a scalar quantity, is defined as P = F/S (F is force, S is the area for F) which can be widely used for both solid and fluid. The formula P = g ρh (g-gravitation acceleration,ρ-density, h-depth) is only used for even density static solid and fluid. The delivery of pressure in the fluid follows the law of Pascal, and the average pressure of uneven density fluid can be calculated with the formula of P = g ρh. The temperature influence on pressure is notHU Ba…     

Investigation of the elevation of saltwater wedge due to subsurface dams

Subsurface dams are rather effective and used for the prevention of saltwater intrusion in coastal regions around the world. We carried out the laboratory experiments to investigate the elevation of saltwater wedge after the construction of subsurface dams. The elevation of saltwater wedge refers to the upward movement of the downstream saltwater wedge because the subsurface dams obstruct the regional groundwater flow and reduce the freshwater discharge. Consequently, the saltwater wedge cannot further extend in the longitudinal direction but rises in the vertical profile resulting in significant downstream aquifer salinization. In order to quantitatively address this issue, field-scale numerical simulations were conducted to explore the influence of various dam heights, distances, and hydraulic gradients on the elevation of saltwater wedge. Our investigation shows that the upward movement of the saltwater wedge and its areal extension in the vertical domain of the downstream aquifer become more severe with a higher dam and performed a great dependence on the freshwater discharge. Furthermore, the increase of the hydraulic gradient and the dam distance from the sea boundary leads to a more pronounced wedge elevation. This phenomenon comes from the variation of the freshwater discharge due to the modification of dam height, location, and hydraulic gradient. Large freshwater discharge can generate greater repulsive force to restrain the elevation of saltwater wedge. These conclusions provide theoretical references for the behaviour of the freshwater–seawater interface after the construction of subsurface dams and help optimize the design strategy to better utilize the coastal groundwater resources.     

Divergence and flow direction as indicators of subsurface heterogeneity and stage‐dependent storage in alluvial floodplains

Assuming homogeneity in alluvial aquifers is convenient, but limits our ability to accurately predict stream‐aquifer interactions. Research is needed on (i) identifying the presence of focused, as opposed to diffuse, groundwater discharge/recharge to streams and (ii) the magnitude and role of large‐scale bank and transient storage in alluvial floodplains relative to changes in stream stage. The objective of this research was to document and quantify the effect of stage‐dependent aquifer heterogeneity and bank storage relative to changes in stream stage using groundwater flow divergence and direction. Monitoring was performed in alluvial floodplains adjacent to the Barren Fork Creek and Honey Creek in northeastern Oklahoma. Based on results from subsurface electrical resistivity mapping, observation wells were installed in high and low electrical resistivity subsoils. Water levels in the wells were recorded real time using pressure transducers (August to October 2009). Divergence was used to quantify heterogeneity (i.e. variation in hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and/or aquifer thickness), and flow direction was used to assess the potential for large‐scale (100 m) bank or transient storage. Areas of localized heterogeneity appeared to act as divergence zones allowing stream water to quickly enter the groundwater system, or as flow convergence zones draining a large groundwater area. Maximum divergence or convergence occurred with maximum rates of change in flow rates or stream stage. Flow directions in the groundwater changed considerably between base and high flows, suggesting that the floodplains acted as large‐scale bank storage zones, rapidly storing and releasing water during passage of a storm hydrograph. During storm events at both sites, the average groundwater direction changed by at least 90° from the average groundwater direction during baseflow. Aquifer heterogeneity in floodplains yields hyporheic flows that are more responsive and spatially and temporally complex than would be expected compared to more common assumptions of homogeneity. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.